cash, stash, pass
I’m new to blogging on here, so bare with me as I get the hang of it. We can all do that right?? I mean why not, we’ve all been willing to go to the likes of Jimmy G in cash in great matchups, To only be let down time and time again. I’ll have to check the o/u on how long I make it with the blogs, but if I were a betting man (obviously am) then I would smash the over and just wait for the $$$ to hit. Realistically though I’ll just be writing and talking to myself, as nobody will take much of the info into consideration, but it’s good with me. I’m currently laid off awaiting surgery fighting a workers compensation case, so right now I’ve got nothing but time, which we can’t say the same for Burrow or Nick Foles, they would pay to have some time!!!
I will write up articles on each position throughout the week and using the cash, stash, pass references. The cash reference meaning he is in cash game consideration, the stash meaning in the player pool for all formats outside of cash games, and the pass will be referring to not wanting any exposure to the player.
I’m not a HIGH stakes player especially GPP, I play around 3-400$ a week and 80-85% of that is cash games, so my way of thinking might not be the same as yours, but that don’t mean either of us are wrong. We all have our methods and our “gut” feelings on certain guys that others might not agree with, but like I’ve always said if I’m going to lose $$ then I’m going to lose it with nobody to blame but myself, like a big 3 barrel bluff on the river against the NIT who would never be at the river unless they got the goods!!! It happens and just gotta trust the process and keep on rolling along and finding your own weaknesses, and try to perfect them.
Enough Rambling though so here we go with the QBs. This week without all the top rushing QBs, and them all bringing a solid rushing floor it lets you take more chances at QB this week I believe.
Lamar (cash 12%pOWN)- He’s obviously not been the same this year, as defenses are catching on and has been stated from him that the D is calling out their plays and already knowing what they’re going to do. That is never a good sign, but even though you might know the play, you still have to stop it. He’s not been as much of a highlight reel this year and until he gets better in the passing game (especially downfield) then it’s going to stop him from those big games we have saw from him in the past. Even with all of that going against him, he still probably has the safest floor this week and in a good spot with what should be a competitive game. The Ravens are a 6.5 point favorite with an o/u of 49.5 and the Ravens at a 27.8 implied team total. As of right now it seems Lamar is 12%pOWN, and for me he is one of my favorite cash game QBs this week, if you find the value at other spots and can get to him.
Justin Herbert (stash, 10%pOWN) – Herbert has been pretty consistent and has shown even in bad games, he still likely get there. The talent is undeniable and he’s in play pretty much every week at the prices he’s been steadily around. The one thing I don’t like is the 9.5 point favorite. This is one of and probable the only game LAC will be favored this heavily, and it makes you wonder with them pounding Ballage lately if they get up and just run the ball, which would limit his ceiling I believe. If that happens, he can still get there on being extremely efficient with the attempts he does have. You figure for them to get up big it’s likely coming from the combo of Herberts arm/legs with some Ballage. So, not saying he can’t or won’t get there, but for the chance that the Jets can’t put up much points and possibly hurt Herbert some, I take him out of cash consideration at the moment.
Big Ben (stash 8% pOWN)- Ben is coming off a big week last week and has a chance to do the same this week, the only issue is Tomlin wanting to get the ground game going, and Baltimore 4 days later. The goal has to be to take care of business but get out as healthy as they can, so if it becomes that way then you could see the run game with combo of 3 backs getting work. They’re a 10 point favorite, so the same situation as Herbert is in, if they get up and the Jags can’t get anything going it will limit Ben from having to do much. I’m a Steelers homer so I will have some Ben and WR stacks and also Conner stacks in case they do try to get them going on the ground and it actually works out. I don’t mind Ben and he’s in consideration since the QB pool isn’t super deep for me this week, but I like the WRs for him more.
Deshaun Watson (stash 11% pOWN)- The wind last week didn’t do anything for his production as we figured, but Deshaun seems to always get there barring situations like that last week. The Texans are a 2 point underdog with a total of 48.5 and team total of 22.5. With not much threat of running game to really beat the Pats, you figure Bill is going to pull out something to slow them down. It’s a possibility that they try to take Fuller and Cooks away, and make Duke and Cobb beat them underneath with the short passing game. If Gilmore is out then likely the focus to take both out of the game makes it harder, but the main focus I assume would be Fuller and that would leave Deshaun to look Cooks way quite a bit. This game should be competitive with good QB play on both sides. I will have some Deshaun but I don’t think I’ll have a whole lot right now.
Cam (cash 11%pOWN)- Since Cam had is ugly game against SF he has averaged 20fpts a game over the last 3. He has taken more of the game manager role and has formed a nice connection with Jakobi Meyers. He’s been efficient and 71% comp pct in the last 3 but he’s only thrown 77 passes over that span. He is averaging 10 rushing attempts per game over that time frame, and though he’s not likely to run for 100 yards or anything, he is likely to run 1 or 2 in when they get in the red zone. It wasn’t something I was really liking at first, but over the week I’ve gave him consideration for cash games and definitely for GPP. The matchup is a good one and the Texans should be able to put points up and that will keep Cam having to put as much points as possible up. This week I think he has one of the higher ceiling possibilities than anyone on the slate with exception to Lamar or Herbert.
Aaron Rodgers (pass 3% pOWN)- Its A-A-RON and he is very capable of putting up big numbers in a bad matchup. When you have a weapon like Davante it’s possible week in an week out, but at his price with the matchup I’d just assume pay up 300 more for Lamar or take the savings down to Herbert or anyone viable under 7k.
Taysom Hill (undecided)- Not sure on his pOWN right now, obviously he is jumping off the page for value in everyone’s optimizers right now, but for me I’m too undecided on it at this point. I know Payton said it would be all Hill and no packages for Jameis, but I really have to see it to believe it, and even if he does I don’t know that he has such a good game that it really kills you if you don’t go there. Until I see what the actual game plan looks like with him and know that Jameis is really out of the picture I would just assume go a safer route. The Saints need to see what they have in him, and I doubt it’s that he is the better QB than Jameis, I just think he’s the one that will be more likely to follow the game plan and take care of the ball better. If they fall behind then I think Jameis has to come in and put some life into the deep passing game to try and get some explosive plays going to get them back in the game. I get it if you want to go there in cash but you really have to trust that it’s 100% Taysom, and right now I don’t think that’s any more than coach speak. So, if I don’t go there and it comes back to kill me I will be fine with that decision and just keep trusting the process.
Joe Burrow (cash 6.2% pOWN)- My first look and early thoughts have been to go with Burrow as my cash QB. The WFT has a good pass rush, but I still think as many attempts he will have that he has a good if not great game. The total is at 46.5 with Cincy total at 22.5 and with no Mixon I would say that it’s very likely all the TDs come from Burrow in one way or the other, and at 5500 he’s only not hit 3x value 3x this year and one was .4 away and the other 2 was Pitt and Baltimore games. I feel for the way I approach cash games right now my decision is pay up for Lamar or pay down for Burrow. With pricing tighter this week I’m leaning the pay down right now personally.
Alex Smith (pass 7%pOWN)- Checkdown Charlie has been solid since he took over and he’s in another good matchup to where him an Scary Terry could hit for a deep ball or 2. Ive saw talk of Smith for cash QB, and I get it but at the same time if I’m paying down to 5300 I’m just going to find the extra 200 and come up to Burrow and take the safer play with the more upside. I might come around to it more before Sunday, but to me it just makes more sense to get to Burrow in this price range. I would prefer not to be going the cheap QB route in cash since it’s not worked out as much for people this year, but if you’re going to need to do it I think this is the week that it’s safer to do so without those top running QBs on the slate.
If you actually took the time to read the 1st blog, let me know what I can do to make it better. I appreciate all constructive criticism, and like I said just because we might disagree on something doesn’t mean I’m right or you’re wrong!! Nope, Nevermind like my wife says I’m always right!! Seriously though, everyone has different approach and systems they use and I appreciate all of you for wasting your time reading a bunch of BS from a guy with too much time on his hands right now!! Thanks!!