CBB Today 01-24-2015 (DK focused due to large GPP)

Usually, my prices are Fanduel, but with today’s big Draftkings 30K, I am going to switch it up for today only as to try and help out the most. The key differences are really the lack of steals/blocks, which are basically make or break on Fanduel. The .5 3pt bonus and bonuses for double doubles and triple doubles definitely alter the landscape as well. Before we get to that, here is the Fanduel scoring for my ideal lineup on Fanduel. I was lucky in that I subbed in Qualls for Wells on some of my lineups, which was a 28.8 bump. SO I didn’t quite make value as Upshaw and Wells were truly disappointing.

Hamilton 38.3 10.7
Upshaw 14.2 -20.6
Johnson 27.9 -3.7
Bell 29.6 5.2
Auguste 23.6 0.4
Carrington 18.8 -1.6
Wells 19.8 -10.2
Hill 23 3.8
Ferrell 29.9 1.9

Let’s hope I put together the top ideal lineup with what have been pretty solid plays thus far.

Over 8000 Forwards:

Best play:

Bobby Portis, Arkansas: 9100 A double double always seems to be the floor with Portis. I really like the match up against a weak Mizzou interior. Before the game winner last time out, I barely noticed him yet he still ended up with 32.3. He needs 36.4 to hit his value target, and I think that is pretty far below his ceiling here.

Other possible plays

Devin Thomas, Wake Forest: 8800 This play is the type of play that wins GPPs but takes enormous stones. Thomas is getting a pace down, and upon first look, is facing a decent interior in Clemson on the road. But Thomas averages a hair below a double double on the road (and overall), and there have been a few bigs that have been able to score and rebound vs. Clemson. I’d only think about this in a multi lineup, personally, but he is the only other possibility at this level if you have value elsewhere.

Avoid

Rakeem Christmas, Syracuse: 9300: Miami has a good enough front court to minimize any upside here. Christmas price is just way too high due to his 35 scoring output vs. Wake.

7000-7900 Forwards:

Best play:

Jaron Blossomgame, Clemson: 7800 Wake does not defend the post well. Jaron, if he stays out of foul trouble, should be able to lead Clemson in both points and rebounds and should be able to kick in the DD bonus.

Other possible plays:

Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa: 7300 Has disappointed the past 2 games, this is the perfect time to get the ultra athletic Uthoff. For a rebounder, he is also a pretty accurate 3 point shooter, putting both the DD and 3 pt. bonus in play.

Georges Niang, Iowa St: 7600 Georges does a bit of everything, which means even if he isn’t scoring, he can still help your team. Texas Tech plays at a slower pace, but doesn’t offer much to be feared.

Avoid:

Le’Bryan Nash, Oklahoma St: 7700 Will probably draw Iwundu, overall not a match up I would try to exploit.

6000-6900 Forwards:

Best play:

Armani Moore, Tennessee: 6100 In a game with a slight pace up for TN, I really think Moore (as the primary rebounder for TN) could pull off his 4th double double of the season in this spot. Due to the pace of TN, and his bigger appeal on a site with steals/blocks, I see his exposure being low and his upside being pretty high.

Other possible plays:

Brice Johnson, UNC: 6900 THe UNC front court is difficult to predict, due to the amount of skilled bigs and the rotation. Johnson came out and had a very good game last time out, and I’m willing to ride him again against FSU.

John Williams III, Missouri: 6600 He was over 8000 just a few weeks back. This game is a huge pace up game. His truly salary killing game was against the Kentucky front court, which is completely understandable.

Avoid:

Tony Parker, UCLA: 6100 Back spasms forced him to sit out last game. If he plays, it might be sparingly.

5000-5900 Forwards:

Best play:

Leron Black, Illinois: 5000 Freshman who is starting because the Illini are decimated by injury, he should continue to get all the minutes he can handle in this game, and that should lead to a good output as both teams like to score quicker than most.

Other possible plays:

Donte Grantham, Clemson: 5000 If he’s hitting 3’s, he is actually possibly a better play than Black at the same price, but if he plays more down low, he has the ability to take advantage of Wake’s weak interior. Usually he only does this if Blossomgame gets into foul trouble.

Avoid:

Cliff Alexander, Kansas: 5000 Coming off a huge game, look for his ownership to rise a bit. I just don’t see Texas as a good opponent to attack.

Under 5000 Forwards

No need to over analyze punts at forward today, there are a few guys who might pop into lineups, like Omar Sherman, Miami: 3500 and Isaac Copeland, Georgetown: 4100 would be the 2 that might deserve a look.

Over 8000 Guards:

Best play:

Bryce Alford, UCLA: 8000 This match up plays perfectly for Alford. Oregon has given up points to guards, especially from deep, and plays at a fast pace, so look for either/both Alford and Powell to have good games. 32 points as the 4x target is just about what he has averaged the past 10 games.

Other possible plays:

Joseph Young, Oregon: 9000 UCLA has definitely been exploited by guards at times this year. He relies on bulk scoring than I might usually like at his price, but if his shot is falling, he should score the most points in this game set.

Petteway and Miller-McIntyre are both reasonable shots to make their targets, but both come with risks.

Over 7000-7900 Guards:

Best play:

Norman Powell, UCLA: 7200 The more economical of the 2 UCLA guards with the same upside and risk. If you can only choose one, choose Powell.

Other possible plays:

Juwan Staten, WVU: 7400 Huge price drop on Staten, who is having a rougher than expected year overall. His last 2 games, he is 2-16 from the field, which should scare some off. He is the exact talent at a discount that moves you up on the leaderboard if he plays to his standard.

Isaiah Taylor, Texas: 7100 He tends to take double digit shots, is the primary distributor and will need to put up points to keep pace with Kansas.

Avoid:

Trevor Cooney, Syracuse: 7100: He has been significantly under what his target would be for over a month. Just flat out over priced at this level.

Over 6000-6900 Guards:

Best play:

Bryce DeJean-Jones, Iowa St: 6100 Jones was on fire to start the year, and 3 weeks ago, was 2000 more than he is here today. The main issue is his minutes have gone down as well as his usage, since McKay joined the squad right around Christmas coincided with his offensive slump. He has started to round back into form and he’s at a great price for his talent level.

Other possible plays:

Jon Octeus, Purdue: 6300 Octeus has as consistent as it gets. He hasn’t scored under 20.75 on DK in 7 games. His only flaw might be in GPP, since he doesn’t have as much upside as others, but has far lower risk.

Avoid:

Marcus Foster, Kansas St: 6800: He might be highly targeted as he exceeded value and goes against a pace up team in OSU. He also is a high volume shooter, which is a desirable trait in DFS. I just don’t see much upside to justify a 27.2 target, as he averages about 2 and 2 in rebounds and assists, meaning he needs to score over 20 to get close.

Over 5000-5900 Guards:

Best play:

Keith Shamburger, Missouri: 5700 Arkansas is in the bottom of big 6 teams guarding the 3 pt. line. Shamburger is the Missouri gunner from deep. He usually contributes a bit in boards and assists, but this play is based on him knocking down the ope looks he is almost sure to get.

Other possible plays:

Isaac Hamilton, UCLA: 5300 This play is only for those who do not have the available cap to go Powell or Alford. He has been in a horrendous slump the last 2, but should get some open looks to knock down today. He gets a ton of minutes, too.

Justin Jackson, UNC: 5100 He has really started to pick it up the past couple of games. I see that continuing against FSU.Under 5000 Guards

Avoid

Kaleb Joseph, Syracuse: 5600 Had a resurgence a bit recently, but that was more due to the competition.

As for the rest, one thing I love about DK is the lower floor pricing. The only sub 5000 guy I think is worth it is Davon Reed, Miami: 3400. Against the zone, he should be able to knock down a few 3’s and it appears due to his D, he should be a lock for 30 minutes.

Alrigthy, here’s where I try to utilize all this to create a winning lineup of all the information above. My DK best fit 8 are:

Powell, Reed,Shamberger,Graham,Moore,Portis,Uthoff, Dejean-Jones

Feel free to offer any commentary.

About the Author

  • chrisduffy543

    Good artice lots of info. imo you could maybe not put a full team at the end but may like that idk.

    Hows the late slate looking to ya?
  • gjtgjtgjt

    Thanks for the feedback. Late games, I love Bowers, as most probably will. Pangos is a good mid level play. Hornsby as well. Shaq Goodwin and Eric Jacobson could both be great steals under 5K on DK.

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