CBB Tonight 01-21-15

I am going to try a little different format going forward, analyzing a few more players while still aiming to provide not just top guys, but pricing points that can help you put together the best lineup possible. I’ve decided the best way forward is to analyze each group by price point, providing for a best play (a guy who most certainly should be on your roster without leaving your salary bare to add value), Other possible plays that will allow you to see who else should be looked at as either additional plays with enough salary to play or to sub a guy I might suggest that you do not like. I am also going to provide an avoid, which I will try to identify a guy who will be looked at by some, but is best avoided.

Over 8000 Forwards:

Best play:

Austin Nichols, Memphis: 8600 I look for Nichols to be the top scorer on the board against the weak interior D of Tulsa that is masked by playing some non low post focused teams. I think Vegas may have low balled this one a bit on the O/U as well, with a close game expected. Look for him to be low owned due to guard focus of DFS and his last game, which was underwhelming due to a blowout. He should make 4x value 34.4 and have low ownership.

Other possible plays:

Branden Dawson, Michigan St: 8300 The 1B to Nichols 1A, Dawson has both a similar floor and a slightly less (based on my opinion of the matchups) upside. The risk here is that the guards do what they tend to and ignore the post a little too much, but I think Dawson takes advantage of Penn States front court with a double double tonight.

Avoid:

I really am not huge on this price point for any of the other guys, but 2 guys who stand out as avoids are Hawkinson (Utah plays great D and I see no reason to test it) and Devin Thomas (who has HUGE upside in any game, but with 5 UNC guys rotating and playing D against him, I just don’t see a high point total tonight

7000-7900 Forwards:

Best play:

Markus Kennedy, SMU: 7500 A big talent who can be quite inconsistent, I love the match up for him tonight against a Tulane team that really struggles defending the post. With Frazier possibly out, it definitely gives the recently reinstated a chance to add a few additional points, especially since SMU should look to establish the post.

Other possible plays:

Roosevelt Jones, Butler: 7500 Another 1B to 1A based on match up, but at this price point, you can definitely afford both. I really like the swing man play against a weak Creighton D vs small forwards. And that is before mentioning that Jones has been straight up on fire recently, which there should be no reason to doubt it will continue. 30 points as 4x value seems like almost a floor in this match up.

Avoid:

Not a fan of anyone else at this price point. The Cincy-Houston game should be avoided, with the exception of punts, and House and Williams are just too inconsistent to rely on.

6000-6900 Forwards:

Best play:

Gavin Ware, Miss St: 6100. This is more of a feel play than any data point play I can put together. His price has dropped significantly due to opponent difficulty increasing, which is NEVER a good angle to try and catch. Looking at the interior defense of Auburn, and their slightly quicker pace than MIss St (and I do mean slightly, as this game has an O/U of 125, with home Auburn as the favorite). Ware is the best rebounder against an atrocious rebounding team and should have some put back attempts, making 24.4 4x number look reasonable.

Other possible plays:

Kameron Woods, Butler: 6600 Second best option in this price range, the inconsistent Woods against this Creighton front court could definitely be appealing and he has surpassed his 26.2 4x number in 3 out of his last 4 games due to his significant rebounding skills. With a 127 O/U and Butler favored by close to 10 at home, there is absolutely no way in my thoughts you could possibly roster him and Jones, so to save a little money and roll heavy on guards, Woods could be a good play.

Brice Johnson, UNC: 6900 I keep going back and forth on him tonight. I think he has tremendous upside on any night, especially vs a weak interior D, but with Jackson, Meeks, Pinson, Hicks and Tokoto sharing minutes, he comes with a lower floor than he should.

Avoid:

Ben Moore is a mystifying option. Since Kennedy has come back, he has seen a decrease in usage outside the ECU game. I just don’t see him as a playable option since he is so reliant on steals and blocks to make value to begin with.

I usually try to find punts wherever possible, but I truly believe the forward under 6000 group tonight is void of any redeeming upside. I will definitely avoid this and save money on the guards, and would suggest you do the same.

Over 8000 Guards:

Best play:

DJ Newbill, Penn St: 8300 Play with confidence, Newbill should have a great game against a Michigan St defense that is a shell of itself compared to prior years. He should get plenty of shots he can knock down.

Other possible plays:

D’Angelo Harrison and Delon Wright are playable, absolute studs any night they play. Being priced over 9K, you need to have a large value proposition to fit them, which on large nights you would expect, but tonight I am just not seeing the risk/reward enough to roster either.

Avoid:

Sir’Domonic Porter, St Johns: 8300 There are just far too many other options to risk the Russian Roullete Porter has been recently. His upside is large, especially considering in the last 6 games, he has been over 30 every other game, and under 20 the other 3, and this is following a 15 point outing last outing, meaning if it holds to form, he should reach value, but I just don’t see it.

Over 6000-6900 Guards:

Best play:

Cody Miller-McIntyre, Wake Forest: 7100 Highest O/U on the board, primary ball handler in a fast paced game, Cody should get to the 28.4 that justifies taking him (again with my 4x value) pretty easily at home. UNC can be scored upon, especially in the back court.

Other possible plays:

Jon Stark, Winterfell (I mean Tulane, sorry): 7000 As long as Stark keeps his head (OK, I’ll stop with the Game of Thrones reference), he should be inline for a nice game against SMU, especially if Frazier is out as expected. Stark fills up the stat sheet in numerous ways, and without their best ball handler, SMU could be prone to a few more TO’s, giving Stark a slight tick in upside on both ends.

Alex Caruso and Travis Trice are both intriguing possible plays as well but neither stands out compared to the 2 above and both have slightly higher price points.

Avoid:

Phil Forte, Oklahoma St: 7500 Low O/U set by Vegas and Forte doesn’t have any upside in any other category. No reason to play solely scorers with numerous other options unless they are in faster than usual paced games.

Over 7000-7900 Guards:

Best play:

Nic Moore, SMU 6800 If Frazier is out, which seems pretty likely, look for Moore to have a higher than usual usage, which should lead to higher production for the talented guard. Like mentioned with Kameron Woods, I would be reluctant to add him to a Kennedy lineup due to a low expected point total.

Other possible plays:

Jalen Jones, Texas A&M: 6100 He has been playing really well as of late, and has rebounding upside to mitigate any scoring slumps. Has a decent match up at home vs. Mizzou and seems assured of reaching his 24.4 in what I expect might be a bit faster pace than Vegas predicts.

Avoid:

KT Harrell, Auburn: 6300 Low O/U set by Vegas and Harrell doesn’t have any upside in any other category. No reason to play solely scorers with numerous other options unless they are in faster than usual paced games. Sound familiar?

Over 5000-5900 Guards:

Best play:

Wes Clark, Missouri: 5800 I know what you’re thinking, why pick a guy who hasn’t been able to shoot all year, right? But I think Clark impacts the game in so many ways, and it is just a matter of time for him to find his range. This could be that type of game, in my opinion. He does so many little things, he is not in danger of losing minutes, and can still get the 23.2 needed for 4x value without a large scoring night.

Other possible plays:

Jon Octeus, Purdue: 5800 Octeus is as consistent as it gets. Some might go for Stephens, especially in GPP, due to their price point and Stephens propensity to be a bit more boom or bust, but I like Octeus at 100 less, and like knowing that he contributes in all areas more than Stephens and isn’t reliant as much on shooting.

Kendall Stephens (mentioned above) and Brandon Taylor are both intriguing possible plays as well but neither stands out compared to the 2 above and both have an additional 100 price.

Avoid:

Louis Dabney, Tulane: 5600 I’ll repeat a common refrain, he doesn’t do much more than score and I just don’t see enough points on the board in this game to rely solely on that to make value. He will probably be very highly owned as his shot has been on as of late and has well exceeded price. There is a risk in the fade, but I think it’s the smart play here.

Under 5000

Best play:

Mitchell Wilbekin, Wake Forest: 4800 A lot higher usage since ACC play started. The bump in pace should certainly help him get a few extra stats in this game to reach value, especially at home, since he should see over 30 minutes again.

Not a ton of additional punts that I like, but I feel like there are enough mix and match options here to give you a good start. My favorite lineup:

Kennedy, Jones, Ware, Nichols, B. Johnson, Octeus, Clark, Stark, Wilbekin.

Good luck and make some cash.

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