CBB Tonight 1-22-15

With trying out the new format, I am also going to recap my last round of picks in order to better help with the pitfalls, successes of my strategy. Last blog was reasonably successful (242.5), as my team came in slightly over my 4x value target in CBB (240 in college basketball should always cash, but not always big money). I gave a few terrible avoids, like night stud Sir’Dominic Porter, who dominated right from the start to lead and ended up with 52.4. 6 blocks and 12 boards from a guard, missed that. As far as my ideal lineup went, here are the results with difference from 4x value in the second column.

Kennedy 15.4 -14.6
Jones 44 14
Ware 37.9 13.5
Johnson 31.2 3.6
Nichols 20.2 -14.2
Octeus 27.2 4
Clark 35.2 12
Stark 11.5 -16.5
WIlbekin 19.9 0.7

As you can see, 3 out of 4 of my top paid options failed miserably. In DFS, one debate chosen wrong (as I had with Dawson and Nichols, and could have had with Jones and Kennedy had I not picked both) can lead to disastrous results. Dawsons 34 (with 300 less salary) would have carried me up the leader board and avoided my Stark blunder as I loved Miller McIntyre, with him as my best play (34.2 to 11.5). Those 2 little hairpin decisions cost me 36.5 points and a pretty much assured sweep of money. Luckily, Ware, Jones and Clark picked up the slack to keep me in decent shape. My best plays outside of Kennedy and Nichols were pretty good, especially Miller-McIntyre and Nic Moore. Overall, a decent night, but we can do better today, with an even larger slate.

The O/U’s tonight are set a lot higher than last night overall. The game I’ll probably completely ignore is VA vs. GA Tech, no sense playing a 115 O/U with a 20 pt. favorite, IMHO. Let’s take a look at the other 13 games

Over 8000 Forwards:

Best play:

Robert Upshaw, Washington: 8700 Upshaw is a stud, plain and simple. There was a time where you wouldn’t think of challenging Colorado’s interior D, but with Johnson on the shelf and Scott doubtful with a back injury, I see absolutely no real challenge for Upshaw in this match up. Even if Scott plays, I still see no reason for Upshaw to come in under his 34.8 target as long as he continues to block shots at his recent pace.

Other possible plays:

LaDonte Henton, Providence: 8600 The 1B to Upshaws 1A, Henton has a game which is expected to be higher scoring (O/U of 142 to 129), and he is facing a pace up in this match up at home. Look for a similar number, although Henton is less likely to fill the stat sheet, especially in blocks and rebounding, like Upshaw, which makes him more dependent on scoring, which he should be able to do in this spot.

Bobby Portis, Arkansas: 9200 At a price tag in CBB I usually avoid, you still can’t ignore Portis tonight if you can slip some additional value in other places. He has been playing like a stud lately, and has a tasty match up vs a mediocre and exploitable Alabama interior. A double double seems to be the floor. If he can throw in a few blocks, 36.8 should be attainable.

Avoid:

Stefan Nastic, Stanford: 8000 Arizona defense, enough said.

7000-7900 Forwards:

Best play:

Stanley Johnson, Arizona: 7900 A big talent who is just starting to settle in, he is coming off 2 huge games and gets the Stanford interior to pick on. The same Stanford that gave up over 90 to Parker and Looney earlier this month. With a lot of higher O/Us, might get lucky if some overlook him, as I think even without the blocks you want from a big man, he might be the lowest risk upside on the board.

Other possible plays:

Tonye Jekiri, Miami: 7500 Jekiri is an intriguing play. Thinking about the 30 point value target, he needs to pick up steals and/or blocks in order to make up for a lack of touches offensively. Without the volume, he is a guy that can get you in trouble with quick fouls, but is a double double machine if he stays on the court and gets even a couple put backs (he averages over 10 boards a game). I see nothing in NC States front court that would prohibit playing Jekiri here if he fits.

Avoid:

I don’t really like anyone else in this price range, although there is also no one that sticks out as an egregiously bad play. I would say that if you find yourself looking at any of these guys, drop down a price level as there is a wealth of similar talent/opportunity.

6000-6900 Forwards:

Best play:

Jordan Bell, Oregon: 6100 Bell is the kind of risk/reward it takes to win. His target of 24.4 is reasonable, although he average only 4 or 5 shots per game, which is always dangerous. His scoring relies more on rebounding/blocked shots. With a questionable Jovanovic, due to the flu, Bell should be able to get the few extra opportunities (and stay out of foul trouble) to far exceed target tonight. This game also has the highest O/U on the board.

Other possible plays:

Dillon Brooks, Oregon: 6700 Pick a duck in this price range, as Brooks is another attractive option here (and Cook might be as well). Offensively, Brooks tends to gravitate towards jumpers offensivelt, and will certainly take more shots than Bell, they both have similar rebounding upside and although not as prolific as Bell, Brooks can help in other areas. Usually I would say choose one or the other from the same team, but in this case, I feel like both freshmen could be in line for nights that exceed target.

Daniel Hamilton, UCONN: 6900 UCF plays very little defense, and struggles especially against athletic swing men and size. I think Hamilton is in a perfect spot here to put up a great game (and without the risk of Brimah, who is the other forward for the Huskies at this level).

Avoid:

Charles Mitchell, Georgia Tech: 6400 Again, avoid this game entirely, but if you must, definitely avoid Mitchell tonight, there is very little upside and we have seen his floor lately, and it is not encouraging.

5000-5900 Forwards:

Best play:

Zach Auguste, Notre Dame: 5800 If he plays his full compliment of minutes, and since he is starting, there is no reason to believe he won’t after his academic issues, then he is almost a must play vs. VA Tech’s front court. Definitely a discount compared to where he should be.

Other possible plays:

Kyle Washington, NC State: 5800 Has beaten tonights value target of 23.2 in his last 3 games against solid competition. If he stays on the floor, he can contribute in many ways. A relatively safe play at this price level.

Trevon Bluiett, Xavier: 5900 A low price point to target this game, Bluiett should have opportunities to rebound and score against Henton.

Avoid:

Brandon Ashley, Arizona: 5800 I like Arizona’s bigs to have good games, but I just don’t see Ashley paying off even this moderate price tag. Kaleb and the above mentioned Johnson are just far better plays.

Under 5000 Forwards

No need to over analyze punts tonight, but there are 2 guys who are definitely worth a look. Thomas Welsh, UCLA: 4500 is totally dependent on the status of Tony Parker, who has been suffering from back spasms. Collin Hartman, Indiana: 4500 is also worth a look as he should be starting in place of Perea and Indiana has no real front court depth.

Over 8000 Guards:

Best play:

Kris Dunn, Providence 9800 This section is packed with tasty treats tonight, almost like it is Halloween. 39.2 is an absolutely sick number in CBB to try and target, but Dunn is a beast, and if you can find a way to afford him, he is a must play with by far the highest floor in a game expected to go over 140, at home, with a tight spread. With a 14 game slate, there are ways to sneak him in your lineup.

Other possible plays:

Jerian Grant, Notre Dame: 8300 The engine of the Notre Dame offense, with a great match up against a VA Tech team. Vegas has an expectation of 73 point for the Irish, and Grant is their leading scorer. Bonus is, if he isn’t scoring them, he is almost certainly feeding the person who did.

D’Angelo Russell, Ohio St: 9700 I’d pay the extra 100 for Dunn tonight, as the match up is expected to be higher scoring and closer, but you can absolutely not go wrong with Russell in almost any match up at this point. And there is nothing that scary waiting for Russell in Chicago tonight.

Avoid:

Chasson Randle, Stanford: 8500 No sense trying to grab 34 points against Arizona.

Over 7000-7900 Guards:

Best play:

Dez Wells, Maryland: 7500 Great rebounding for a guard makes Wells, the lowest price option for Maryland’s 3 main scoring options, a great choice against an IU team that can give up points. He can be streaky, but he’s definitely the best option of the 3 tonight.

Other possible plays:

Sterling Gibbs, Seton Hall: 7900 With whitehead out, Gibbs has taken over this team, both as a ball handler and as a scorer. Vegas see Seton Hall at around 76 tonight, definitely makes Gibbs one of the top plays on the board

Michael Qualls, Arkansas: 7500 With Alabama paying attention to Portis, this is a great opportunity for Qualls to get some open looks, which he is definitely not afraid to take.

Avoid:

Melo Trimble, Maryland: 7800 He has been getting a lot of deserved hype due to Maryland, but for fantasy purposes, he just doesn’t reach his price value nearly enough based on his current level. Far better options tonight

Over 6000-6900 Guards:

Best play:

Dee Davis, Xavier: 6400 Davis has been an assist machine lately, making the high O/U on this game very attractive to roster him.

Other possible plays:

Julian Jacobs, USC: 6200 Jacobs had a pretty bad game last time out, but prior to that, he exceeded his target of 24.8 3 straight games. Very dependent on minutes, but with the bump in pace from Oregon, I see Jacobs as a great under the radar play.

Avoid:

Jordan Matthews, Cal: 6800 Consistently overpriced expecting the 1 every 5 huge games. Not worthy of risking it, tonight.

Over 5000-5900 Guards:

Best play:

Kadeem Carrington, Seton Hall: 5100 I would probably not play him and Gibbs together, but Carrington is still priced as a backup, which must be taken advantage of in this high scoring game. I expect Gibbs will see a lot of attention, defensively, leaving Carrington some extra open looks.

Other possible plays:

Rodney Cooper, Alabama: 5300 Like last night with Gavin Ware, for some reason, despite statistical analysis, Cooper has been calling out to me all day. Doesn’t have a particularly notable match up either way against Arkansas, and doesn’t do much to offset a lack of scoring. Still, I think he gets above value in this faster pace game and give us the 21.2 target we are looking for.

Avoid:

Ricky Tarrant, Alabama: 5800 He has been hobbled by a leg injury and I just don’t see him playing enough minutes tonight to reach value.

Under 5000 Guards

Again, I’m not going to fully breakdown this section, but here are a couple of guys definitely in play.Ahmed Hill, VA Tech: 4800 With Bibbs out, Hill becomes a much bigger part of the offense. Very hard to find guys playing over 30 minutes down in this range. Tra Holder, ASU: 4500 He is getting the majority of minutes that he and Justice were splitting, and he is a good distributor who should be in line for a decent night tonight, which is the goal of punting down here.

OK, my ideal lineup to make money:

Upshaw, S. Johnson, J. Bell, Auguste, D. Hamilton, K. Carrington, D. Wells, A. Hill, Yogi Ferrell, Indiana, 7000(not listed above).

Good luck!!!!!!!

About the Author

  • chrisduffy543

    Good write up man i like the format.

  • gjtgjtgjt

    Thanks for reading and the feedback. I usually suck at the formatting stuff, so glad my playing around looks OK. Hopefully the picks are good…

  • bobbybaby

    Somehow I missed this awesome piece but I knew to play prov college one two punch. Cashed and still see $$ when prov on ledger.

  • rlshea

    Thanks for the article, I haven’t been able to find much info on CBB. I like the position and pricing format.

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