Chalk Talk: Fade To Get Paid
It’s Week 13 and we have a massive amount of great spots here this week. You can’t play them all so who should you be overweight on and who should you fade? These are the most important questions to answer when playing DFS. In this article we are looking for players that are going to be chalky in large slate tournaments that do not bring enough value to the table and that you should be fading. Let’s dig in!
Alvin Kamara (DK: $8400 ; FD: $8500) : Projected Ownership: ~22%+
Last week he put up 39.80 DK points and 33.80 FD points. He was roughly 20% owned across the larger entry tournaments and I expect him to be even higher owned this week due to last week’s performance. However, Carolina is a much easier team to run on than the Rams, they rank 26th in run DVOA, which will put Mark Ingram in a much better spot and is a better match up than Kamara. Kamara was EXTREMELY efficient last week, he went 5/87/1 rushing and 6/101/1 pass catching and I don’t think he can keep that up. I expect him to be somewhere around 18-22 DK points and I project him to be 22%+ owned this week, he is a great fade in large tournaments.
Pivot: Mark Ingram (DK: $7900 ; FD: $8000) : Projected Ownership: ~13%
His performance last week was lacking, to say the least, which should bring his ownership down a little. That and the fact that he is $500 cheaper on both sites makes him the correct play over Kamara.
Keenan Allen (DK: $8300 ; FD: $8100) : Projected Ownership: ~30%
The last two weeks Allen has been ON FIRE! He has also seen 13 targets and 14 targets. With the Chargers line at -13, I don’t think there will be enough ball slinging for Allen to hit value. Based on his last two week’s performances and the fact that the Browns rank last in DVOA against WR1’s, people will be all over him. I am projecting him to put up less than 20 DK points and see only 7-8 targets.
Pivot: Hunter Henry (DK: $4700 ; FD: $5400) : Projected Ownership: ~18%
The Browns also rank last in DVOA against the TE and with Henry’s pricing being almost half of Allen’s and my projecting them to be similar in points scored, Henry is the clear winner here. His usage has been better the last few games and I expect that trend to continue.
Rob Gronkowski (DK: $7300 ; FD: $8100) : Projected Ownership: ~18%
This is a great week to pay down at TE. Gronk has been one of the highest owned TE’s the last two weeks and his performance in Week 12 is only going to propel him even higher this week. Buffalo ranks 31st against the run, 22nd against the run-pass and 24th against WR1’s. They rank 9th against the TE position which leaves me wanting to use Burkhead and Cooks over Gronk this week. Although, you never know what the Patriots are going to do, I am much more comfortable with those two options than I am with using Gronk, who could easily post a measly 8 point performance.
Pivot: See above, Rex Burkhead and/or Brandin Cooks
With so many great match ups this week for the guys in the $6k+ range, ownership should be spread out a little more evenly. That makes it even more crucial that we fade the chalkiest players that will not perform well enough to win us a tournament.