Chasing Tail, Late to the Party, and Making It Rain
Chasing Tail is a Good Thing
Stacking the tail end of the lineup? Are you crazy? Just hear me out. I chased a lot of tail while I was in my 20’s. In fact it’s how I got in engaged three times. I endured a lot of rejections but every “NO” spurred me own to victory. My failure rate was very high. But I wasn’t home on Saturday nights. I was with my “study partners”.
Stacking the tail end of the lineup is not optimal. Most of the time it is a guaranteed way to not cash. Playing it safe will not guarantee you a win in a large GPP either. On certain slates chasing tail can give you an advantage. Most players will not stack end of the line-up. Our brains are built to help us survive and help us make the safe plays. End play is not safe and you will lose money.
I always had dates in college because I was contrarian. One way to get a date was to ask the girl who all the guys were afraid of asking. She was popular, beautiful, out of their league. I went to where all the single women were hanging out or if I liked a lady I would just go talk to her. Rejection was high at first but I got better. Like I said I had a lot of choices on the weekend.
The same concept applies here. Most of the crowd is risk averse to stacking the back end of a lineup. The crowd usually will take the safer play. Only about 2% of my tail end lineups have cashed since the season has started. I don’t use that tactic everyday it depends on the slate, teams, and players.
Some slates will call for a 7, 9, 8, 6, 5 (Draft Kings) or 7, 9, 8, 6 (FanDuel) stack and this could give you an edge going against the crowd. Low ownership with high upside is the key in most large GPP. Everyone talks about being contrarian but how many players really do it.
Just don’t stack any lineup. Use your line-up builder tools to figure out which games, teams, and players will make the best plays. Look for teams with high implied scores. Heck try stacking teams that play at hitters parks. The key is being different but make sure that difference has an upside for a chance to win. Add tail end stacking to your contrarian tool box.
Late to the Party
Being late to work, appointments, or your children’s events is terrible. Being late to the party is a different thing. Showing up late to clubs, a party, or entertainment events adds social value. Why? Because being fashionable late brings you attention. You are fresh and that brings an excitement to the crowd.
In DFS rostering players in late games is another way to different. Research shows that there is a 23% less ownership on players with a late game start of 10:00pm est. There is no clear cut reason why this happens. But who really wants to check line-ups at 10:10pm est. early games start. Here is another chance to go against the crowd. Lineup cards may not be out by the time the early games start. Remember the crowd wants to play it safe. So if line-up cards are not out for late games most players will go for the sure line-ups. Study the slate and see where you can get an advantage. Stacking games and teams on late games is another way to take advantage of the inefficiencies of MLB DFS.
Draft Kings gives you an advantage because of their late player swap option. Other sites and their game locks can make it hard to roster players in late games. That also makes it a game changer for those sites if your line-up goes off. One more tidbit. Try the late game on Sunday nights. All other games are early and lineup cards for the late game usually isn’t out until the afternoon. Sounds like a big advantage if the value is there. Studying the slate and see if late games can give you an advantage in large GPPs.
Making It Rain
I don’t make it rain. I am fiscally responsible with my money. If there is a chance of rain for a game I might consider stacking that game. Most DFS players will avoid a game with a chance of rain. Remember low ownership and high upside. Over the last decade about 1% of all games are postponed due to rain.
There is a difference between rain and thunderstorms. Most games with thunderstorms in the forecast are postponed. So check the weather. Don’t just roster 1 or 2 players. Go all in. Stack the team or the whole game. You are being contrarian! In normal circumstances if a couple of players in your line-up score 0 points you are going to lose anyway. So for that entry just go big .
I just gave you 3 contrarian tools to put in your arsenal. Study the slate, games, and players and see if any of these techniques can help you win.