Cheap Whacks - Safeway Open & Alfred Dunhill Links Champ

Intro

You want to play DJ, JT, Rahm, Rory but you can’t find a way to make the salary work. The goal of the article is to identify cheap golfers who will make the cut and maybe even make a run up the leaderboard. The only rule is that all golfers selected must be cheaper than $7,000. Note – This article is DraftKings specific in regards to salary.

Confidence Level is how confident I am in the golfer to make the cut.
High = Load Him Up; Moderate = Use with caution; Low = GPP Longshot Only.

Spreadsheet Rank weights different stats such as Course History, Recent History, Strokes Gained, etc. to determine a final ranking for each golfer. Ownership percentages listed are assuming I build 10 lineups.

Last Week

New structure still not great results. Was a donation week in both the Euro and PGA. Euro was looking promising after Thursday but a couple dud Friday rounds by Detry and Harding took me out of contention.

Danny Willett got back in the winners circle last week after the ups and downs since winning the Masters in 2016. Looks like he is back in good form. My dude Jon Rahm had the lead going into the weekend but didn’t have enough to fend off Willett. Over in the PGA, Sebastian Munoz got the dub and was on my roster but I paired him with 3 duds. Munoz has been in great form recently so it’s not surprising to see him at the top.

The picks at Sanderson Farms were Scott Harrington, Johnson Wagner, and Carlos Ortiz. Harrington and Wagner both missed the cut and weren’t very helpful. Carlos Ortiz had a great week though with a 4th place finish. Just wish I had more confidence in him on Thursday rather than throwing the Harrington dart.

The Euro picks were Dean Burmester, Alexander Levy, and Benjamin Hebert. These picks were just as bad as Burmester and Levy both failed to make the cut. Hebert made the cut and had a decent 37th place finish. Not a great week but we will turn this around.

Rank By DK Points Scored

1. Carlos Ortiz – 108; My Rank – 3
2. Johnson Wagner – 30; My Rank – 2
3. Scott Harringon – 24; My Rank -1

1. Benjamin Hebert – 61; My Rank – 3
2. Alexander Levy – 19.5; My Rank – 2
3. Dean Burmester – 16; My Rank – 1

PGA Tour – Safeway Open

I call this the Brendan Steele event as he won it the first 2 years I got into DFS. He has excellent course history but his form is not good right now. The price is nice on him for a 2 time winner @ $7,400. JT is also back this week after taking the past couple years off from this event. Any way do what you want up top let’s try to identify some value which you will need if you roster JT. There are 85 golfers in our price range so let’s pick out 3 that will do well this week.

Cameron Percy ($6,900) – Warning: Percy made my lineup so he will probably MC. You have been warned. In pretty solid form making 6 of his last 7 cuts. Weird note, he finished 11th place in 3 of those events. We’ll take an 11th place finish this week. He golfed here in 2014 and finished a respectable 26th. Stats are pretty solid across the board and he doesn’t stick out in any particular category. I have him ranked 16th overall on pure stats alone. A criticism is he could use some help off the tee but you can’t have everything down here.
Confidence LevelHigh; Spreadsheet Rank: 9

Brice Garnett ($6,800) – A pick because I value course history here. Decent form even with a missed cut last week – He’s made 6 of his last 8 cuts. He finished 17th in 2017 and 46th in 2014 so he’s proven he can make the cut here. Stats aren’t as good with him. He’s good at avoiding bogeys but needs to make more birdies. Also could use a little help with is Approach. Again this pick is mostly a course pick.
Confidence LevelHigh; Spreadsheet Rank: 26

Mark Anderson ($6,200) – Then with this last pick we are going to throw a dart. He’s had a decent start to his season this year with a 29th and 36th place finish the last 2 weeks. No course history and the stats are for only 8 rounds. Could use some help off the tee but good with his approach game.
Confidence LevelModerate; Spreadsheet Rank: 33

If I were making 10 lineups I would be 50% Percy, 30% Garnett, and 10% Anderson.

Order Of Preference

1. Cameron Percy
2. Brice Garnett
3. Mark Anderson

Euro Tour – Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

Another event that I value course (well should say event) history as the tournament is played across 3 separate courses. The good thing is that a MC is not as penal as golfers are guaranteed (barring a WD) 3 rounds. On top of event history we are going to value Birdies even more this week. Tons of big name golfers in this event so you probably already know the guys up top you want to target. We have 101 golfers to choose from this week so no excuses this week.

Wil Besseling ($6,200) – No course history or stats on him so this is a pure form play. A nice 7th place finish at the KLM has me rolling the dice on him this week. A regular on the Challenge Tour he is in good form only missing 2 of 15 cuts in 2019. Let’s hope he can give us a 40th place or better finish this week.
Confidence LevelModerate; Spreadsheet Rank: 8

Julien Guerrier ($6,300) – He golfed in his first event of 2019 last week and did alright with a 60th place finish. Hopefully that knocked the rust off and he’s ready to go. He finished 32nd here last year so we’ll take that finish again this year. Didn’t bring in any stats since I would have to go back to 2017 to pull them in and didn’t think that was representative of him now.
Confidence LevelModerate; Spreadsheet Rank: 14

Nicolas Colsaerts ($6,700) – Wanted to go Tapio here since I have him marked as a good links golfer and his 4th place finish last year but wanted more solid course history to prove it wasn’t a fluke. Colsaerts is in terrible form. His last “good” performance was July at Andalucia. Didn’t rank our very highly in the stats because I put a big weight on Driving Accuracy because the rough is pretty penal. He is not very accurate off the tee. Now to the good with him is the course history. He’s made the cut here 4 years in a row including a 10th place finish last year. Let’s hope he can repeat that.
Confidence LevelModerate; Spreadsheet Rank: 60

If I were making 10 lineups I would be 40% Guerrier, 30% Colsaerts, and 20% Besseling.

Order Of Preference

1. Julien Guerrier
2. Nicolas Colsaerts
3. Wil Besseling

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