Cheap Whacks - The Players Championship & Kenya Open

Intro

You want to play DJ, JT, Rahm, Rory but you can’t find a way to make the salary work. The goal of the article is to identify cheap golfers who will make the cut and maybe even make a run up the leaderboard. The only rule is that all golfers selected must be cheaper than $6,600. Note – This article is DraftKings specific in regards to salary.

Confidence Level is how confident I am in the golfer to make the cut.
High = Load Him Up; Moderate = Use with caution; Low = GPP Longshot Only.

Spreadsheet Rank weights different stats such as Course History, Recent History, Strokes Gained, etc. to determine a final ranking for each golfer. Ownership percentages listed are assuming I build 10 lineups.

Last Week

In the words of the great golfer Sir Charles Barkley – The picks last week were turrible. The picks were Dominic Bozzelli, Carlos Ortiz, and Corey Conners. All 3 looked like they were going to make the cut after Day 1. Bozzelli and Conners bombed hard on day 2. Carlos Ortiz was the only good pick with a 29th place finish. At least Bozzelli and Conners scored more points than Jason Day. The bonus FD pick of Braden Thornberry was bad as well although he only missed the cut by a stroke.

The Euro picks were just as bad. The picks were Kristoffer Reitan, Max Schmitt, and Wilco Nienaber. Reitan and Schmitt both never had a chance. Nienaber made the cut and actually put up a nice DK score with 15 birds, an eagle, and a streak.

Rank By DK Points Scored

1. Carlos Ortiz – 68.5; My Rank – 2
2a. Corey Conners – 23; My Rank – 3
2b. Dominic Bozzelli – 23; My Rank – 1

1. Wilco Nienaber – 70.5; My Rank – 3
2. Kristoffer Reitan – 24.5; My Rank – 1
3. Max Schmitt – 21; My Rank – 2

PGA Tour – The Players Championship

The unofficial Major brings out the best of the best. Prime week to get the cheap picks right to fit the couple big dogs you like. There are 53 golfers that meet our salary guidelines this week. I’ll pick out 3 that ranked the highest on my spreadsheet.

Sam Ryder ($6,500) – Ryder is in good form with 5 straight made cuts. He just always finishes around middle of the pack. Statistically he is pretty middle of the pack as well which is good for a bottom tier salary. He is near the bottom of the pack in Strokes Gained Around The Green and Strokes Gained Off The Tee. He doesn’t have any course history but just looking for him to make the cut and finish between 40th and 50th.
Confidence LevelHigh; Spreadsheet Rank: 29

Harold Varner ($6,500) – Not coming in with the best of form. 3 missed cuts out of 6 events in 2019. He hasn’t missed the cut in back to back events yet and he missed the cut in his last event so hopefully that trend continues. Course history is pretty good with 3 made cuts over the last 3 years including a 7th place finish last year. I have him ranked as 16th in Bogey Avoidance and 30th in Strokes Gained Off The Tee. I think Ryder is the safer option to make the cut but HV3 has a higher upside so I’ll probably be a little heavier on Harold.
Confidence LevelHigh; Spreadsheet Rank: 34

JT Poston ($6,500) – He has not missed a cut in 2019 in 7 events played and has a T10 finish at the Desert Classic in January. No course history but I have that toned down this week anyway. He ranks 15th in Par 5 Scoring Average so we will need him to take advantage of the Par 5s to do well. The stats that are concerning are 80th in Bogey Avoidance and 90th in Strokes Gained Off The Tee. I will probably limit my exposure to him with his price point being the same as the 2 golfers in the list above. Poston’s price stands out as a better value on FanDuel.
Confidence LevelModerate; Spreadsheet Rank: 40

I will be 50% Harold Varner, 40% Sam Ryder, and 10% JT Poston (but 80% Poston on FD).

Order Of Preference

1. Harold Varner
2. Sam Ryder
3. JT Poston

Euro Tour – Magical Kenya Open

New event for the Euro tour but this has been played on the Challenge Tour for a long time. There are 48 golfers that meet our salary guidelines this week. I’ll pick out 3 that ranked the highest on my spreadsheet. There are a lot of golfers on smaller tours competing this week. I dont have stats for the golfers on the smaller tours (about half the field) but I did bring in their recent form.

Antoine Rozner ($6,500) – A Challenge Tour golfer (Web.com equivalent for Euro). The stats I have for him are for a small sample size (4 rounds). His recent form is really good with 7 straight made cuts dating back to the end of last year. That includes a 7th place finish at the Afrasia Bank Mauritius Open on the Euro tour. He does rank at or near the top in a lot of statistical categories but again that is off 4 rounds at the Afrasia Bank Open which he did well. No course history but I will be firing him up everywhere.
Confidence LevelHigh; Spreadsheet Rank: 4

Nick McCarthy ($6,500) – A EuroPro Tour golfer. I don’t have any stats and he has no course history. This is solely on his 2018 performance on the EuroPro Tour where he only missed the cut 2 times in 13 apperances. His last tournament was in October where he won the Tour Championship on the EuroPro Tour. I’ll give him a little ownership but won’t go too crazy
Confidence LevelModerate; Spreadsheet Rank: 6

Yan-Wei Liu ($6,200) – Asian Tour golfer but he has made appearances on a handful of Euro Tour events so I only brought in history from those Euro events. The stats I will rattle off are for a total of 8 rounds so again be cautious. He is in pretty good form. 2 out of 3 made cuts in Euro Tour events at the end of 2018. Hasn’t missed a cut on the Asian Tour since September of 2018. Could use some help off the tee but he ranks near the top in Birdie Percentage, Par 4 Scoring, and Strokes Gained Putting. No course history again. I won’t be too crazy with ownership, probably about the same as McCarthy above.
Confidence LevelLow; Spreadsheet Rank: 29

Here is how I think my ownership will be with these three: 100% Antoine Rozner, 20% Nick McCarthy, and 20% Yan-Wei Liu.

Order Of Preference

1. Antoine Rozner
2. Nick McCarthy
3. Yan-Wei Liu

About the Author

Comments

  • Quadhole

    I want a shot at the PGA…. Love this article…
    Langley, Mullinax and Taylor

    Was going to take a shot at Merritt, but having a RIB removed is quite an ordeal, I bet !

  • hautalak

    I already have HVIII so I’ll add 3 more.

    I’ll take chalk darling Johnny Vegas, the heartbreak Chris Kirk (played him a couple weeks ago and he bombed), and Kevin Streelman.

    For bonus measure I’ll add Sabbs and Palmer. Safe to say it’s a “stars and scrubs” week!

  • cjousma

    Thanks for the comments guys.

    Quad – Of the 3 you listed I like Mullinax the best. I see nothing wrong with playing Mullinax.
    If he brings his putting game this week he could do really well. Langley’s SG A had him drop out of my radar. I assume Nick Taylor (I have a personal grudge against Vaughn Taylor due to DFS but that’s a different story). I like Nick’s form but course history and approach are ugly.

    hautalak – Load up that HV3. Vegas scares me every time I play him. I usually pick him on the wrong week. I’m avoiding him this week so he will probably do well. Kirk I’ve been contemplating throwing him in a lineup. That course history is awesome. Streelman is near the bottom of my field list. Course history is god awful, stats didnt pop for me. Form is OK though.

    Sabbatini love the course history but I had Approach and Bogey Avoidance highly weighted and he is not very good in either. Ryan Palmer was just out of the price range for the article. No problems with a Ryan Palmer play. The trend I dont like is finishes last 4 years (recent first) – 23, MC, 23, MC. If that trend continues he will MC this year :).

    Most of my lineups are Stars and Scrubs. I did make 1 uber balanced team where I threw all research aside and I just dropped in salaries right next to each other. Ended up with Molinari, Webb, Finau, Mats, Scott, and Kuch. Again that’s a no research team but I kinda like it.

  • cjousma

    Not a good week again. JT Poston was the only guy to make the cut in the PGA. Good thing there is I was heavy on him on FanDuel.

    In the Euro, only Nick McCarthy made the cut and he barely made the cut. Bad picks. We will do better next week.

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