College Football Saturday
North Carolina State @ Kentucky -2.5 O/U 49.5 Game played in Jacksonville, FL
Mississippi @ Indiana -9 O/U 66 Game played in Tampa, FL
Oregon @ Iowa State -4 O/U 58 Game played in Glendale, AZ
Texas A&M -7.5 @ North Carolina O/U 66 Game played in Miami, FL
North Carolina State (23.5 Implied Team Total)
Bailey Hockman ($7.4k FD/$6.5k DK) started the last 6 games for the Wolfpack at QB. In those 6 games, he averaged 250.7 passing yards and 2 total TDs per game. He catches a Kentucky pass defense that was average this season. Kentucky allowed 220.3 passing yards per game including 6.97 yards per pass attempt. They were beaten for 17 TD passes in 10 games. With several high profile QBs on this slate, Hockman will likely carry little to no ownership. The North Carolina State offense favored the run (53/47 run-pass split) and averaged 69.8 plays per game.
Zonovan Knight ($7.9k FD/$5.9k DK) and Ricky Person Jr. ($7.1k FD/$4.9k DK) rotate in the Wolfpack backfield. Knight led the Wolfpack with 736 rushing yards and 9 TDs (20/136/0 receiving) while Person Jr. tallied 635 rushing yards and 4 TDs on 141 carries (17/131/0 receiving). Knight enters the bowl game with 1+ rushing TD in 5 straight games. He averaged 12.4 carries per game over those 5 games. Person Jr. ran for 59+ rushing yards in each of the final 3 games. He averaged 13.5 carries per game over the last 5 games. Kentucky’s run defense was below average. They allowed 166.7 rushing yards per game including 4.36 yards per carry. The Wildcats surrendered 16 rushing TDs in 10 games.
Notable target counts through 10 games: Emeka Emezie (62), Thayer Thomas (54), Devin Carter (40), Cary Angeline (33), Porter Rooks (33), Zonovan Knight (24), and Ricky Person Jr. (17).
Emezie ($7.4k FD/$5.1k DK) cleared 50 receiving yards in 8 out of the last 9 games. He posted 42/694/5 this season. Slot WR Thomas ($6.8k FD/$5.3k DK) is a boom or bust play. His last 4 games: 11/135/2 (FSU), 0/0/0 (LIB), 9/102/3 (SYR), and 3/32/0 (GT). Carter ($5.7k FD/$3.8k DK) had 2+ receptions in each of the last 5 games (26/442/2). He’s more of a secondary play along with Angeline ($6k FD/$3.9k DK) and Rooks ($5.5k FD/$3.3k DK). Carter’s season high in receiving yards was 79. Angeline, the TE, led the Wolfpack with 6 TD receptions. He cleared 50 receiving yards in 3 out of 10 games this season. Rooks has been held under 50 receiving yards in 7 straight games. This could be a Thomas game as Kentucky generally allowed team highs to players operating over the middle of the field late in the season (SCAR’s slot WR Joyner led the team with 4/43/1, FLA TE Pitts 5/99/3, and VAN’s Abdur Rahman 7/89/0).
Kentucky (26 Implied Team Total)
Terry Wilson ($7.6k FD/$6k DK) is not a great passer, but he can make plays via the ground game. He only threw for 200+ yards in 2 out of 9 games. The senior tossed 7 TD passes in 9 games. However, he racked up 410 rushing yards and 5 TDs on 98 attempts. He’s in a pretty good spot as North Carolina State has struggled defensively this season. Wilson is cheap on both sites. The Wolfpack allowed 254.6 passing yards per game including 7 yards per pass attempt. They were beaten for 20 TD passes in 11 games. The Kentucky offense favored the run (63.7/36.3 run-pass split) and averaged 61.1 plays per game.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($9k FD/$7.5k DK) or AJ Rose ($6.5k FD/$4.4k DK) will start at RB. Rodriguez Jr. is the RB to target here. He enters the bowl game having run for 108+ yards in each of the last 3 games that he’s played in. The sophomore had 5 rushing TDs over his last 2 games (9 TDs total). Rose is more of a secondary play though he averaged 13 carries per game over the final 3 regular season games. Rodriguez Jr. was out for 2 of those games though. North Carolina State had a below average run defense. They allowed 163.5 rushing yards per game including 4.08 yards per carry. The Wolfpack surrendered 16 rushing TDs in 11 games.
Notable target counts through 10 games: Josh Ali (70), DeMarcus Harris (23), Allen Dailey Jr. (22), Keaton Upshaw (21), Justin Rigg (16 – 8 games), Isaiah Epps (10 – 5 games), Mike Drennan (6 – 8 games).
Allen Dailey Jr. (X) ($5.7k FD/$3.4k DK), Isaiah Epps (Z) ($5.1k FD/$3.1k DK), Josh Ali (slot) ($6.2k FD/$4.8k DK) and Mike Drennan II (slot) ($4.5k FD/$3k DK) are the starting WRs. Keaton Upshaw ($5.4k FD/$3.3k DK) or Justin Rigg ($5.1k FD/$3.5k DK) will start at tight end. Ali is clearly the best pass catcher amongst the Wildcats. He had at least 4 receptions in 6 out of the last 7 games. He posted 49/461/1 in 10 games. The senior averaged 8.0 targets over the final 3 regular season games. Dailey Jr., Rigg, and Upshaw are all secondary targets. They likely won’t rack up yardage and you’re hoping for a TD if you roster them. Rigg returned for the season finale after missing 2 games. He posted a season high 3/72/0 on 4 targets in that game (SCAR) (11/137/1 in 8 games). Dailey Jr. was held under 42 receiving yards in every game this season (13/122/1). Upshaw had 9 receptions, 122 receiving yards, and 2 TDs over the final 4 regular season games.
Mississippi (28.5 Implied Team Total)
Matt Corral ($11k FD/$9.5k DK) accounted for 31 out of the Rebels’ 50 offensive TDs this season. The dual threat QB posted game averages of 332.8 passing yards, 52.1 rushing yards, and 3.44 total TDs. The sophomore has one of the highest upsides in college football. Indiana allowed 226 passing yards per game including 6.85 yards per pass attempt. They yielded 11 TD passes in 7 games. The Ole Miss offense favored the run (59.6/40.4 run-pass split) and averaged 79.7 plays per game.
Leading rusher Jerrion Ealy ($8.5k FD/$7.1k DK) is banged up and is questionable for the bowl game. Ealy ran for 745 yards and 9 TDs while also catching 15 balls for 155 yards and 1 TD. If he’s out, Snoop Conner ($6.9k FD/$3.5k DK) and Henry Parrish ($6.3k FD/$5.7k DK) will rotate in the backfield. Conner has 3 TDs over the last 4 games despite receiving 8 or less carries in all 4 games. He’s also hasn’t topped 25 rushing yards in that time frame. Parrish Jr. out-carried Conner 16 to 3 in the regular season finale. Parrish ended up running for 82 yards and 2 TDs on 16 carries against LSU in the final game of the season. My belief is that Parrish would likely get Ealy’s workload if Ealy is out. I think Conner will stay in his change of pace role regardless. Parrish is cheap on FD if Ealy is out. The Hoosiers played slightly above average run defense this season. They allowed 135.7 rushing yards per game including 4.01 yards per carry. They allowed 6 rushing TDs in 7 games.
Notable target counts through 9 games: Johnathon Mingo (42), Dontario Drummond (32), Braylon Sanders (21), Jerrion Ealy (18), Snoop Conner (9),
Braylon Sanders ($7.2k FD/$5.6k DK) is questionable after sustaining an injury in the season finale (13/348/4 over the last 4 games). Slot man Mingo ($6.4k FD/$4.4k DK) struggled in the regular season finale after taking over Elijah Moore’s spot (2/38/0 on 5 targets against LSU). He posted 24/349/3 this season in 9 games. Drummond ($6.9k FD/$4.7k DK) has a TD reception in 4 straight games. The senior posted 19/307/6 this season. Both guys should see a ton of targets if Sanders out and make for solid plays. That would leave QB Corral with 3 out of his top 5 targets. Dannis Jackson ($4.7k FD/$3k DK) would likely start for Sanders in the even that Sanders is unable to play. Jackson was targeted 3 times this season and failed to secure a reception. QB Corral posted a 79.9 passer rating when targeting Mingo, 102.8 when targeting Drummond, and 147.3 when targeting Sanders. Mingo and Drummond remain cheap on DK.
Indiana (37.5 Implied Team Total)
Jack Tuttle ($8.7k FD/$6.8k DK) completed 13 out of 22 pass attempts for 130 yards and 2 TDs in his 1st start of the season (14-6 win over Wisconsin). He also recorded 11 rushing yards on 6 attempts. The sophomore gets the best possible matchup as the Hoosiers take on Ole Miss. Ole Miss was torched for 324.4 passing yards per game including 8.54 yards per attempt. Additionally, they were flamed 19 TD passes in 9 games (all slate highs). Tuttle will likely be popular and it’s for good reason. The Indiana offense operated at a nearly 50/50 run-pass split and averaged 69.3 plays per game.
Stevie Scott III ($9.3k FD/$5.3k DK) figures to be busy on Saturday. The junior has received 18+ carries in all but 1 game this season (loss to OSU). Scott III ran for 462 yards and 8 TDs in 7 games. He offers leverage of the popular IU passing game. The matchup is phenomenal too. Ole Miss allowed 211.2 rushing yards per game including 5.42 yards per carry. They were slammed for a mind boggling 26 rushing TDs in 9 games. Scott III looks too cheap on DK. David Ellis ($5.7k FD/$4k DK) figures to operate as a change of pace back. He’s viable due to his pass catching ability. The sophomore ran for 45 yards on 11 carries while racking up 10 receptions for 118 yards (only played in 4 games this season, 2+ receptions in all 4 games).
Notable target counts through 7 games: Whop Philyor (66), Ty Fryfogle (62), Peyton Hendershot (33), Miles Marshall (30 – 6 games), Stevie Scott III (15), and David Ellis (15 – 4 games).
Fryfogle ($9.2k FD/$6.3k DK) and Marshall ($5.9k FD/$3.2k DK) start on the perimeter while Philyor ($7.7k FD/$4.9k DK) starts in the slot. Hendershot ($6.8k FD/$4.1k DK) is the starting tight end. Fryfogle is the big play threat; he had 2 200+ receiving games this season. He has one the highest upsides amongst all pass catchers in college football. Meanwhile, Philyor posted a game high 4/47/1 on 7 targets in Tuttle’s only start (36/414/3 this season). Whop drew 6+ targets in all 7 games. Marshall and Hendershot are secondary plays. Marshall is coming off an airball with Tuttle at QB. He cleared 35 receiving yards in each of the other 5 games he played in this season. Hendershot had a down season after posting 52/620/4 in 2019. He was held to 34 or less receiving yards in all 7 games. He posted 23/146/4 this season. He’s a TD or bust play. Ole Miss was usually roasted by the opposing team’s top pass catcher (last 3 games – LSU’s Boutte 14/308/3, MSU’s Walley 9/176/0, and SCAR’s Smith 10/117/1). That trend would benefit Fryfogle.
Oregon (27 Implied Team Total)
Despite the high implied team total, I’m not sure what to make of QB Tyler Shough ($9.6k FD/$8k DK). He was unable to exploit an average USC defense in the PAC 12 title game. Oregon also decided to play Anthony Brown ($6k FD/$7k DK) at times too. If that continues, it severely impacts Shough’s DFS prospects. He completed 8 out of 15 pass attempts for 91 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. The dual threat QB also ran for 7 yards on 10 carries. The sophomore was responsible for 15 out of the Ducks’ 26 offensive TDs this season. He posted game averages of 246.7 passing yards, 43.8 rushing yards, and 2.5 total TDs. I do think he makes for an interesting tournament play as I’m guessing a lot of people will write him off after the PAC 12 title game. The matchup with Iowa State favors the Oregon passing game (which should help keep QB Brown on the sideline I’d think). Iowa State allowed 238.4 passing yards per game including 7.49 yards per pass attempt. They allowed 14 TD passes in 11 games. The Oregon offense favored the run (57.3/42.7 run-pass split) and averaged 63.8 plays per game.
CJ Verdell ($6.6k FD/$4.7k DK) is hoping to play in the bowl game, but he was unable to go in the PAC 12 title game. It’s difficult to see Oregon giving the junior a large workload even if he’s back. I’d rather take my chances of Travis Dye ($8.4k FD/$5.5k DK). Dye ran for 391 yards, recorded 221 receiving yards, and scored 5 TDs in 6 games. The junior has received 10-12 carries in each of the last 4 games. Cyrus Hibio-Likio ($5.6k FD/$3.3k DK) is always a threat to steal goal line carries. CHL isn’t an option outside of the showdown format. He has 4 rushing TDs on 18 carries this season. He’s run 36 yards (4/40/0 receiving). Iowa State was great at defending the run this season. The Cyclones limited opposing ball carriers to 104.6 rushing yards per game including 3.15 yards per carry. They surrendered 9 rushing TDs in 11 games.
Notable target counts through 11 games: Jaylon Redd (36), Johnny Johnson III (24), Devon Williams (21 – 5 games), DJ Johnson (13), Hunter Kampmoyer (12 – 4 games), Travis Dye (11), and Mycah Pittman (7 – 4 games).
Williams ($7k FD/$5.2k DK) cleared 100 receiving yards in 2 out of 5 games. He’ll be a force to reck on with next season (13/264/1 in 5 games). JJ3 ($6.2k FD/$4k DK) cleared 40 receiving yards in 4 out of 6 games. He posted 15/226/2 in 7 games. Redd ($6.7k FD/$4.6k DK) had at least 2 receptions in all 6 games (22/256/1). The TE, Kampmoyer ($6.1k FD/$3.7k DK), had a TD reception in 3 out of the 4 games that he played in this season (11/133/3). Oregon QBs posted a 68.8 passer rating when targeting Redd, 103.8 when targeting JJ3, 117.7 when targeting Williams, and 152.4 when target Kampmoyer. I should also note that Devon Johnson ($5.5k FD/$4k DK) had a TD reception in 3 out of 6 games. He’s another TE that sees a lot of action. He airballed in the 3 other games this season. Stat lines given up to opposing WRs over the last 3 games: OU’s Mims (Z) 7/101/1, WVU’s Ryan (Z) 5/79/0, and TEX’s Eagles (X) 5/142/0. I believe Mycah Pittman ($5.5k FD/$3.4k DK) mans the Z-receiver spot (or at least he did in the PAC 12 title game) (5/89/0 for Pittman this season). JJ3 starts at the X-receiver spot.
Iowa State (31 Implied Team Total)
Brock Purdy ($8.9k FD/$7.4k DK) accounted for 22 out of the Cyclones 47 offensive TDs this season (3+ TDs in 4 out of the last 6 games). The junior posted game averages of 235.8 passing yards, 31.2 rushing yards, and 2 total TDs. He faces off with an Oregon defense that was decent against the pass but vulnerable via the ground (more on that below). Oregon limited opposing passers to 249.7 passing yards including 6.87 yards per pass attempt. The Ducks ceded 7 TD passes in 6 games. The Iowa State offense favored the run (53.7/46.3 run-pass split) and averaged 67.5 plays per game.
Cyclones star RB Breece Hall ($10.7k FD/$8.7k DK) is in a tremendous spot on Saturday. Oregon is allowing 159.8 rushing yards per game including 4.21 yards per carry. They allowed 13 rushing TDs in 6 games. Back to Hall, he received 20+ carries in 8 out of the last 9 games. He’s been held under 100 rushing yards in 3 straight games after topping the century mark in each of the 1st 8 games. The sophomore has at least 1 TD in all 11 games. He’s overall RB1 on Saturday. I should also note that Hall is active in the passing game (21/170/2 this season receiving).
Notable target counts through 11 games: Xavier Hutchinson (86), Charlie Kolar (60 – 10 games), Sean Shaw Jr. (31), Chase Allen (28), Breece Hall (23), and Tarique Milton (17 – 5 games).
Hutchinson ($7.8k FD/$5.5k DK) and Kolar ($7.5k FD/$5.4k DK) are the two top weapons in the passing game for QB Purdy. Hutchinson hauled in 18 balls for 203 yards on 23 targets over the final 2 games. In total, he caught 60 passes for 726 yards and 4 TDs. Kolar has found the end zone in 5 out of the last 6 games. He caught 2+ balls in all 10 games that he played in this season from the tight end spot (39/538/6). Shaw Jr. ($5.6k FD/$3.7k DK), Allen ($5.2k FD/$3.1k DK), and Milton ($5.1k FD/$3.4k DK) are secondary plays. Sean Jr. was more involved in the 2nd half of the season. He caught 12 balls for 134 yards and 1 TD over the final 4 games. Allen is a TE; he’s a TD or bust play (16/215/2 this season). Milton played in the final 3 games after missing most of the season. The senior had 9 receptions and 46 receiving yards on 11 targets over the final 3 games.
Texas A&M (37 Implied Team Total)
Kellen Mond ($10.2k FD/$7.8k DK) accounted for 19 out of the Aggies’ 36 offensive TDs this season. The senior QB posted game averages of 227.8 passing yards, 28.7 rushing yards, and 2.11 total TDs per game. He’ll be the chalk at QB as the Aggies face off with a pretty bad North Carolina pass defense. The Tar Heels allowed 248 passing yards per game including 7.39 yards per pass attempt. They were beaten for 17 TDs in 11 games. UNC has allowed solid to great fantasy performances to dual threat QBs in 3 out of their last 4 games (MIA’s King threw for 239 passing yards, 53 rushing yards, and 2 TD passes (1 INT), ND’s Book threw for 279 passing yards, rushed for 48 yards, and 1 TD pass, and WF’s Hartman threw for 429 yards and recorded 5 total TDs). The Texas A&M offense favored the run (55.3/44.7 run-pass split) and averaged 68.6 plays per game.
The Aggies have two dynamic RBs that offer different skills sets. Isaiah Spiller ($9.5k FD/$6.7k DK) is the prototypical RB while Ainis Smith ($8.8k FD/$6.2k DK) is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Spiller received 18+ carries in each of the final 7 regular season games. The sophomore topped 110 rushing yards in 5 out of the last 7 games. He found the end zone 7 times this season. I will note that Spiller is also active in the passing game (16/174/0 receiving including 2+ receptions in 4 straight games). Smith will likely receive a handful of carries in the bowl game. The speedster had 3+ receptions in 8 straight games. Smith posted 49/293/4 rushing and 37/439/6 receiving. UNC was also subpar against the run this season. They allowed 147.8 rushing yards per game including 4.08 yards per carry. UNC surrendered 20 rushing TDs in 11 games.
Notable target counts through 9 games: Jalen Wydermeyer (63), Ainis Smith (56), Chase Lane (44), Hezekiah Jones (31 – 5 games), and Isaiah Spiller (22).
Wydermeyer ($8.3k FD/$6k DK) is one of the best tight ends in college football. The big guy has 3 multi-TD games over the last 5 games. He’s drawn 5+ targets in 5 straight games. QB Mond posted a stellar 125.0 passer rating when targeting his top weapon. Lane ($6.1k FD/$4.5k DK) topped 50 receiving yards in 4 out of the 1st 5 games; however, he’s been under 40 receiving yards in 4 straight games. Jones ($6k FD/$4.3k DK) is the deep threat and the junior has drawn 8+ targets in 3 out of the 5 games that he’s played in this season. He’ll likely carry little-to-ownership (16/145/0) and makes for a contrarian play in large field tournaments. Despite that, he’s been unable to hook up with QB Mond on the deep ball (Mond has a 51.1 passer rating when targeting Jones). If we get rid of UNC’s game with Western Carolina (second to last game), UNC allowed 4/54/0 to ND’s TE Mayer and 6/140/1 to MIA’s TE Jordan in their final 2 regular season games.
North Carolina (29 Implied Team Total)
Sam Howell ($9.4k FD/$8.2k DK) accounted for 32 out of the Tar Heels’ 63 offensive TDs this season. He posted game averages of 304.7 passing yards, 11 rushing yards, and nearly 3 total TDs. He’ll likely need to make plays in the passing game if North Carolina has a chance of winning this game (more on that below). The Aggies allowed 224.3 passing yards including 7.24 yards per pass attempt. They allowed 16 TD passes in 9 games. The UNC offense favored the run (58.4/41.6 run-pass split) and averaged 71.3 plays per game.
UNC won’t have 2 of the best RBs in the country around to play in the bowl game. Both Michael Carter and Javonte Williams opted out. British Brooks ($5.7k FD/$3.8k DK) OR Josh Henderson ($5.5k FD/$5k DK) are listed as co starters in the backfield. Brooks has been primarily used on special teams over the last 2 seasons. He has 46 rushing yards on 9 carries this season. Henderson is a former 3-star prospect. Henderson has 46 rushing yards on 12 carries. Elijah Green ($5.2k FD/$5.1k DK) could also play a factor in the backfield (former 3-star prospect). UNC should have their normal offensive line available for the bowl game. The matchup with Texas A&M is difficult; the Aggies limited opposing ball carriers to 92.2 rushing yards per game including 3.33 yards per carry.
The starting WRs are Antoine Green ($5.2k FD/$4.2k DK), Dazz Newsome ($8.6k FD/$5.7k DK), and Emery Simmons ($5.6k FD/$3.8k DK). Leading WR Dyami Brown won’t play in the bowl game after declaring for the NFL draft. Garrett Walston ($5.6k FD/$3k DK) will start at TE. Newsome, the slot WR, will immediately elevate to the de facto #1 WR. After starting the season slowly, Newsome topped 55 receiving yards in 5 out of the final 6 games (48/616/5 on 62 targets in 11 games). Simmons played a larger role in the 2nd half of the season with Beau Corrales sidelined. The sophomore posted 15/201/1 over the final 7 games. Green was only targeted 5 times all season. He did manage to catch all 3 of his targets for 37 yards and 1 TD over the final 2 games. Walston is a TD or bust play (15/223/2 on 18 targets). Newsome and Simmons are the primary plays here with the rest of the group being secondary options. Khafre Brown ($5.8k FD/$3.5k DK) will also see more action. The sophomore is a big play threat; he averaged 22.8 yards per reception this season (13/297/2 on 17 targets).