College Football: Tuesday Night MACtion

Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois -5 O/U 55

Ohio -21 @ Bowling Green State O/U 56.5

Eastern Michigan (25 Implied Team Total)
Mike Glass III received the start at QB for the Eagles last week. The dual threat senior completed 20 of 25 passes for 246 yards while also rushing for 83 yards and 1 TD on 8 carries. In MACtion, Glass III is averaging 223.4 passing yards, 35.6 rushing yards, and nearly 2 TDs per game. Glass has 5 rushing TDs in MAC play. The Eagles offense is pass-heavy (52.5/47.5 pass-run split) and averages 67.2 plays per game.

Shaq Vann leads the EMU backfield with 493 yards rushing and 6 TDs on 104 carries. In the 4 games Vann has played in MACtion, he’s averaging 95.5 rushing yards; the senior has 6 rush TDs (4 of them came last week against lowly Akron). This week’s matchup with NIU is another good one for the Eagles’ backfield. NIU ranks 87th in rushing yards allowed per game and have surrendered 20 rush TDs in 10 games. In NIU’s last two games they gave up the following box scores to opposing RBs: CMU’s Kobe Lewis 17/143/1 and Toledo’s Shakif Seymour 19/133/0

The Eagles have 4 WRs that have at least 30 receptions, 395 yards receiving, and 3 TDs. Dylan Drummond leads EMU in targets (63) and receptions (43). He has 395 yards receiving and 3 TDs this season. The sophomore has been held under 33 yards receiving in 3 straight games. He’s been targeted at least 5 times in 9 out of 10 games this season. Matthew Sextion has 33 receptions, 501 yards receiving, and 4 TDs on 56 targets. Sexton has cleared 76 yards receiving in 2 straights; he has 2 TD receptions in the last 4 games. Quian Williams checks in with 40 receptions, 481 yards receiving, and 4 TDs on 49 targets. The sophomore has 4+ receptions in 3 out of the last 4 games. Arthur Jackson III has 30 receptions, 472 yards receiving, and 4 TDs on 44 targets. This group catches the toughest matchup on the 2-game slate. NIU is allowing 208.3 passing yards and they’ve only surrendered 15 TDs in 10 games.

In 2019 (10 games), EMU is 88th in passing yards allowed with 241.4 yards/game. They are 100th in rushing yards allowed with 193.8 yards/game. The defense has given up 25 TDs on the ground (2.5 TD/game) and 17 TDs through the air (1.7 TD/game) this season.

Northern Illinois (30 Implied Team Total)
Ross Bowers will start at QB for the Huskies. Bowers has thrown for 414 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INT over the last 2 games. While the matchup with EMU is good (88th in passing yards allowed and have given up 17 pass TDs), I’m not overly interested in the former California QB. He exits the game in short yardage/goal line situations in favor of backup QB, Marcus Childers. Childers has 30 carries over the Huskies’ previous 4 games. Even he could be in play against EMU’s porous run defense. The junior QB has 2 multi-rush TD games over the last 4 games. The Huskies’ offense operates favors the run (52/48) pass-run split and averages 69.2 plays per game.

Tre Harbison leads NIU’s rushing attack. The junior has rushed for 899 yards and 8 TDs on 200 carries. In MAC conference play (6 games), Harbison is averaging 112.5 yards rushing on 24.3 carries per game. He’s scored all 8 of his TDs in MACtion. He’s topped 113 yards rushing in 4 out of 6 MAC games. This is a home run spot for the workhorse back. EMU has been obliterated via the ground game all season long. The Eagles are allowing nearly 200 yards rushing per game and have surrendered 25 rush TDs in only 10 games. Harbison will be the chalk play at RB and rightfully so.

The Huskies spread the ball around to a number of different pass catchers. They have 5 pass catchers that have been targeted at least 42 times this season. Cole Tucker leads the team in targets (56), receptions (37), and receiving yards (520). He has 1 TD reception. Spencer Tears has 20 receptions, 341 yards receiving, and 2 TDs on 50 targets. Tears is the Huskies’ deep threat. Tyrice Ritchie has 28 receptions, 336 yards receiving, and 3 TDs on 51 targets. Mitchell Brinkman checks in with 29 receptions, 404 yards receiving, and 2 TDs on 42 targets. TE Daniel Crawford rounds out the relevant pass catchers. Crawford has amassed 33 receptions and 410 yards receiving and 1 TD on 43 targets.

In 2019 (10 games), NIU is 43rd in passing yards allowed with 208.3 yards/game. They are 87th in rushing yards allowed with 177.9 yards/game. The defense has given up 20 TDs on the ground (2 TD/game) and 15 TDs through the air (1.5 TD/game) this season.

Ohio (39 Implied Team Total)
Nathan Rourke has accounted for 23 of the Bobcats’ 38 offensive TDs. Rourke will be a chalk at QB on this 2-game slate. The dual threat QB is averaging 210.1 passing yards, 71.8 rushing yards, and 2.3 total TDs. The senior has 7 rush TDs over the last 4 games; he’s cleared 79 yards rushing in all 4 of those games. Rourke gets the hapless Falcons this week. The Falcons are allowing 4.4 total TDs per game. Ohio’s offense is run-heavy (59.5/40.5 run-pass split) and averages 65.6 plays per game.

O’Shaan Allison and De’Montre Tuggle share the backfield for the Bobcats. Allison has 577 yards rushing and 2 TDs on 110 carries; he’s also caught 11 passes for 76 yards on 13 targets (0 TD). Tuggle has 416 yards rushing and 9 TDs on 81 carries while also catching 14 passes for 109 yards and 1 TD on 17 targets. The junior has multiple rush TDs in 3 out of the last 4 games. Allison hasn’t scored in 5 straight games despite averaging over 6 yards per carry in MACtion. QB Rourke actually leads the Bobcats in rushing attempts (126), rushing yards (718), and rushing TDs (10). This week’s matchup with BGSU is about as good as it gets. The Falcons allowed the following stat lines to enemy backs in the last 4 games: CMU’s Jon Ward 21/130/3, WMU’s Levante Bellamy 17/178/4, and 9/85/2 to Miami’s Jaylon Bester. Allison, Tuggle, and Rourke are all good plays this week (and will be popular).

Isiah Cox leads the Bobcats in targets (48), receptions (29), and receiving yards (479). He has 1 TD this season. Shane Hooks has 18 receptions, 355 yards, and 3 TDs on 27 targets. He’s is a risky play, as he’s been shut of the box score on a few occasions this season. The freshman leads the Bobcats with 19.7 yards per reception. Cameron Odom has 19 receptions and 193 yards receiving on 40 targets (0 TD). Odom hasn’t topped 36 yards receiving in any single game this season. Jerome Buckner has 16 receptions, 272 yards receiving and 1 TD on 29 targets.

Ryan Luehrman has 23 receptions, 314 yards receiving, and 4 TDs on 34 targets from the tight end spot. The junior has 14 receptions, 185 yards receiving, and 2 TD on 20 targets in 6 MAC games. I’d probably stick to him and Cox for safety and Buckner for upside.

Not counting Akron (because they’re bad, really really bad), BGSU has allowed the following point totals in 3 out of the last 4 matchups: 44 points (last week to MIAOH), 49 points (WMU) and 38 points (CMU)

In 2019 (10 games), Ohio is 83rd in passing yards allowed with 240.2 yards/game. They are 97th in rushing yards allowed with 192.4 yards/game. The defense has given up 18 TDs on the ground (1.8 TD/game) and 19 TDs through the air (1.9 TD/game) this season.

Bowling Green State (18 Implied Team Total)
Dual threat QB Grant Loy has started five straight MAC Conference games. The junior is averaging 138 yards passing, 63 yards rushing, and 1.2 total TDs in those games. Loy hasn’t attempted more than 29 passes in any of his 5 total starts this season. The last 2 dual threat QBs to face this week’s opponent, Ohio, have found success against the Bobcats. Kent State’s Dustin Crum threw for 262 yards and 4 TDs while adding 96 yards rushing. WMU’s Jon Wassink threw for 322 yards and 3 TDs while adding 17 rush yards. Keep in mind that both of those QBs are two of the best signal callers in the MAC while Loy is struggling through his 1st few games as a starting QB. He has upside that’s worth taking a shot on in GPPs, but I wouldn’t play him in cash. BGSU’s offense is run-heavy (59.9/40.1 run-pass split) and averages 71 plays per game.

Bryson Denley led the Falcons’ backfield with 105 yards rushing on 14 carries in last week’s blowout loss to Miami Ohio. Denley benefitted from Andrew Clair missing last week’s game due to a foot injury. He’s missed 5 of the last 6 games and his availability for this week’s game is unknown. Denley leads the Falcons 463 yards rushing and 3 TDs on 96 carries. The junior is also the team’s 2nd leading pass catcher with 26 receptions, 263 yards receiving and 3 TDs on 36 targets. The junior has a TD in 4 of the last 5 games. Clair is probably a long shot to play this week; along with an ailing foot, he’s played in exactly 4 games (max amount of games a player can take part in and still redshirt). I’m wondering if the Falcons are thinking about redshirting the junior. If that’s the case, he won’t play this week nor the season finale. Ohio has been susceptible to the rushing game this season as they’re allowing 192.4 rushing yards per game. They’ve also allowed 19 rush TDs in 10 games. However, they were able to contain WMU’s star RB Levante Bellamy in last week’s game (28/72/1).

Quinton Morris has been targeted 40 times more than other any BGSU pass catcher. Morris has 48 receptions, 528 yards receiving, and 3 TDs on 76 targets. The junior TE has at least 4 receptions in 8 out of 10 games this season. RB Marlow III and Julian Ortega-Jones round out the relevant WRs. Marlow has 18 receptions and 176 yards receiving on 26 targets. Ortega-Jones has 16 receptions and 187 yards receiving on 24 targets.

In 2019 (10 games), BGSU is 67th in passing yards allowed with 229.4 yards/game. They are 118th in rushing yards allowed with 211.7 yards/game. The defense has given up 23 TDs on the ground (2.3 TD/game) and 21 TDs through the air (2.1 TD/game).

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