Contrarian Corner July 20th
Welcome to the Contrarian Corner. This blog will be about doing things a little differently than what most of the Rotogrinders team recommends. Anyone can look at team totals and decide to stack the team with the highest total. What I attempt to do is stack teams that will be low owned and are in great spots, despite what the Vegas team total might be. This strategy has a high level of variance. I am not aiming to cash for the minimum, I am trying to win GPP’s.
Last night I gave out the Pirates and the Phillies. While they did combine for seven runs it was nowhere near what I expected. I have learned many life and gambling lessons from my family throughout the years. My grandmother would always say you pay your money and you take your chances. I certainly did that as I had about 90% of my hitters from this game. My father would always say you put your money where your mouth is. If I am going to have a sports take, I am going to back it up with money. I always have and I always will. I think the Pacers will be a big time surprise next year in the NBA. I have already bet them at 70/1. I do the same daily with DFS. While I may suggest four teams and only play three, I will play the majority of them.
Today we have a split slate with three games early and ten games late. I am skipping the mid-day slate, as I will be having some family time.
The New York Yankees will be the mega chalk on this early slate with their massive team total. While suggesting Colorado might be a viable contrarian option, I am heading a little further west.
San Francisco Giants – The Giants were on fire, and then they came home to face some good pitching. Today they get a date with Walker Lockett who has allowed 10 runs in 7.2 innings in the majors this season. If the wind in Wrigley cooperates, no one will be on the Giants in a very favorable spot. Factor in that the Mets bullpen, which isn’t very good at all, and has been taxed especially after that marathon game the other night. I will play two lineups, a Yankees stack and a Giants stack.
The chalky teams seem to never change at times. Boston, Cleveland and Houston should be soaking up a majority of the ownership. I will be playing Houston as they are finally almost completely healthy and hitting a ton of homeruns right now. In terms of contrarian options I spotted three situations I want a part of.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates left what felt like 354 people on base last night. I didn’t check for sure, but I think that is accurate. I will continue to target the Pirates at home, in the heat against a righty. Zach Elfin hasn’t scored double-digit Draft Kings points since June 19th. No one was on the Pirates last night and that will continue tonight. Give me Colin Moran and all the lefties.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Gio Gonzalez is coming back for the Brewers and could be on a pitch limit. I have not seen anything definitive as of this writing. Arizona continues to crush since their breakthrough in Texas. In their last four games the Diamondbacks have scored 10, 1, 19, and 9 runs. That is the perfect GPP recipe for me. Eduardo Escobar is on fire at the moment and is the 6th highest priced third basemen this evening.
Cincinnati Reds – I have been picking on the Reds with pitchers and that has not been going well. I am sure but mentioning the Reds here they will get shutout tonight. Over the last week the Reds have scored 11, 4, 2, 3, 6, 9, 17 and 2 runs. That is all over the place, but I have a feeling that Miles Mikolas might be a chalky pitcher. Stacking against the cheaper chalky pitcher can give you leverage on the field.
This is my plan as this morning. I’m Milo741 on all the DFS sites. Follow along on twitter @wintheweekend, as I will post my bets as well. Good luck everyone!