Contrarian Corner July 21st
Welcome to the Contrarian Corner. This blog will be about doing things a little differently than what most of the Rotogrinders team recommends. Anyone can look at team totals and decide to stack the team with the highest total. What I attempt to do is stack teams that will be low owned and are in great spots, despite what the Vegas team total might be. This strategy has a high level of variance. I am not aiming to cash for the minimum, I am trying to win GPP’s.
Today we have a split slate with ten games early and four games late. I am skipping the late slate as I am headed home from a weekend trip. Before diving into todays slate I wanted to mention something about my goals and the point of the Contrarian Corner. This is not for cash games. This is not for the faint of heart. This is the Ricky Bobby of blogs. “If you ain’t first you’re last.” I am trying to win a GPP. Is it nice to cash, sure, but that is not what I am trying to do. I want to win. When the slate locks if my suggested stacks are ten percent owned or lower, I have achieved the first part of my goal. I want to play teams that are low owned and if they go bonkers I have leverage on 90+ percent of the field. While it worked well when Arizona scored 16 runs the other night, some times the Pirates score just one single run. It happens. Anyway, on to today’s contrarian choices.
The chalk seems to be pretty consistent for the weekend: Yankees, Red Sox, and Indians. If you want safe and are looking to just cash in a GPP, you should probably pick and play one of them. I will play at least one chalky stack, as I normally do and mention here. In terms of contrarian plays I am going to mention three teams.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Line for this game is extremely large as the Rays are -270. Being a large favorite has pushed their team total above five runs. Dylan Cease has been pretty decent due to his strike out upside, but still has been hit during his two outings. Austin Meadows now has a hit in every game since July third. I like him as a one-off if you don’t go full stack here.
Toronto Blue Jays
In the first two games against the Tigers, Toronto has dropped seven and twelve runs. Freddy Galvis has six hits in this series already and just like Meadows makes a great play, even if you don’t stack Toronto.
I know. I am going right back to the well. It’s 100 degrees in Pittsburgh and very humid. Drew Smyly was released by the Texas Rangers in June and is now making a start for the Phillies. Smyly was awful for the Rangers in every conceivable way. He gave up 19 home runs in 13 appearances for Texas. Yes, I would like some more of that to happen today. Colin Moran and Corey Dickerson are currently on fire and despite the lefty starting for the Phillies, should be in the lineup.
(Edit, neither of them are)
This is my plan as this morning. I’m Milo741 on all the DFS sites. Follow along on twitter @wintheweekend, as I will post my bets as well. Good luck everyone!