Contrarian Corner Week 1 NFL
Welcome to the Contrarian Corner. This blog will be about doing things a little differently than what most of the Rotogrinders team recommends. Anyone can look at team totals and decide to stack the team with the highest total. What I attempt to do is stack teams that will be low owned and are in great spots, despite what the Vegas team total might be. This strategy has a high level of variance. I am not aiming to cash for the minimum, I am trying to win GPP’s.
I said I was going to pivot to football and here we are. I am not completely done with baseball, but most of my time and research is being spent on betting football and making NFL lineups. I am so excited and cannot wait. I think of the NFL as a weekly test. You study all week long and then take a test every Sunday. Some Sundays you do well, some not so well. No matter how it ends up, you get to study and try again the following week. This blog will not be changing its focus. I will try to discuss some under the radar or contrarian stacks for the week in NFL.
The chalk for this week appears to be a Jameis Winston Chris Godwin stack. This game has a massive total and the hype around Godwin is reaching insane levels. I will be playing a Tampa Bay stack of some kind. If you really want to make your Bucs stack different, add a third player. It appears that Carson Wentz and the Eagles may be chalky too, but I do not want any part of that game. I am looking to win GPP’s and find ceiling games, or as others call them eruption spots. Without further ado, my contrarian Stacks of the week.
Nick Foles and Dede Westbrook
Westbrook is going to be massively owned, especially in cash games, but who is playing Foles? There is no reason Foles cannot have a massive game here. To make the stack even more contrarian pay up at tight end and run it back with Travis Kelce. Many people will be paying down at tight end and paying up can give you a slightly different roster construction. This game has a huge total and the betting public is all over the Chiefs. Always fade the public when it comes to gambling, especially in the NFL.
Jimmy Garoppolo and Greg Kittle and Marquise Goodwin
A Jimmy G stack will gain some steam due to the game environment. To make your Jimmy G stack unique add in a San Francisco wide receiver. Goodwin has had moments before and could have a great game in this spot. Feel free to run it back with any of the Tampa Bay options. Both receivers and OJ Howard are in play.
Jacoby Brissett and TY Hilton
Have you seen Brissett’s price? He is only $4,400 on Draft Kings and that allows you to pay up in some other spots. This is my favorite under the radar stack. The public perception is that Hilton pays better at home (True) and the Colts are done without Andrew Luck (Not True). I kind of like the Colts and the points in this one, but really like this stack. In terms of running it back, I would suggest the very affordable Hunter Henry.
Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore
The Rams are only 2.5 point favorites in Carolina. The public is all over the Rams. Public perception is that Cam is not 100%. Vegas is begging you to take the Rams in this game. This is a set up. The professional bettors are on the Panthers. One thing I love about the Panthers offense is we know where all the scoring is coming from. I am more than happy to get a low owned Panthers stack.
This is my plan as of right now. If things change during the week I will be back to update this blog. I am Milo741 on all the DFS sites. Follow along on twitter @wintheweekend, as I will post my bets as well. Good luck everyone.