Coop’s Dell Technologies Golf Thoughts
Been a few months since I composed a blog so I thought I would share my thoughts on this weeks tournament since it is the last week we will see big DK contests until next year. In addition this is the last cut event until the new season starts in October. 6/6 will be high this week, around 40% last year, so it is imperative that none of the golfers in your player pool miss the cut this week. Keep in mind that this 40% was driven by MC from Adam Scott (25%) and Rory McIlroy (17%) while every other player to miss the cut was 6% or less. In reality, don’t be surprised to see a 6/6 at 50-60% this year depending on how ownership plays out as well as who and how many MC. Most likely we will see 18-23 players miss the cut this week as T70 and ties will move onto the weekend. Before moving on if you are a cash game player this blog is not for you as it is GPP focused and keep in mind I am focusing on players who have potential T20 upside for the most part.
The first topic I would like to discuss this week is an area that I feel many in the DFS community ignore and that is leaderboard analysis. DFS golf has become data driven that is focused primarily around statistical analysis. Do I pay attention to stats, yes, do I put all of my weight on them, no. When looking at leaderboard analysis, I am focused on two things, the first being who finished within the T20 at two particular tournaments. As mentioned many times in previous blogs golf is a competitive sport with high variance from week to week. If you scan the leaderboards over the last 5 tournaments played at TPC Boston you will see that on avg 3-5 players have finished T20 in back to back seasons. The last two results have resulted in four and five players accomplishing this feet. For me this is important since we want players who can finish T20 this week plus the players who typically fall in this area carry a high price tag. This week I will have no more than five players in my player pool that finished T20 last year. So let’s take a look at the players who finished T20 last year that are playing this week.
Dustin Johnson 11.6k finished in a tie for 18th last year and has not missed a cut in eight attempts. DJ has three T10’s at TPC Boston with two finishes of 4th being his best. DJ is the most expensive player this week and it’s easy to make quality name lineups with him. There are two things that scare me about DJ. The first being that he has the ability to just flat out dominate a tournament while the second is he has struggled with the flat stick at TPC Boston. Right now DJ is on the inside looking out when it comes to making my player pool. Projected ownership will play a piece as to my desire to play him or not and currently I feel his ownership is sliding which makes me like him more.
Brooks Koepka 11k finished 18th last year at TPC Boston which was his best finish of his three appearances. Everything continues to point up for Koepka except his ownership in DFS golf which is mediocre at best. People feel Koepka is only a big time tourney player and that is fine with me as I will continue to play him at suppressed ownership vs his results that he has been providing. Koepka played well last week but his putter was not hot. Koepka is a solid to one of the best putters on bentgrass and if he gets the flat stick rolling watch out. Many people talk about Rory McIlroy and how he can dominate with his driver. Newsflash, Koepka has the same ability as he has been striping his driver. One of my favorite people to follow on golf twitter is Kenny Kim @kendovt. Kenny is highly knowledgeable when it comes to golf and spits out great nuggets. This is something he posted this week on Koepka. “Here’s something scary. Koepka has gained more strokes with approaches in his last 3 events than any other 3 event stretch in his career. He lost SG:P in 2 of those wks which is why hes not on a win streak. You know the putter will catch up and if his irons stay hot, watch out.”
Gary Woodland 7.7k is a fade for me this week as I feel the probability of him finishing T20 for the fourth consecutive year is low. In addition each one of Woodlands previous three T20 finishes has gotten worse each year. Woodland is suspect with the putter as shown by losing strokes in three of his last four tournaments this year.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello 7.3k is another player I will fade this week. Bello has been playing good golf recently up until last week when he finished 60th due mostly to a poor round three. Rafa finished 18th last year at TPC Boston and I cant blame you for playing him or Woodland but he is a streaky player who could possibly be on the bad side of his streak. I also feel Rafa and Woodland will be owned fairly decent and there are players who will be lower owned with similar upside.
Adam Hadwin 6.9k is another player I can’t blame you for playing but I also feel he will have high ownership amongst the players in the 7.3k and under range. This is a long course and Hadwin will not only have to hit his long irons well but he will need to putt well. Hadwin is known as a good putter but he has struggled this year while most recently posting better results. He may very well play well in both aspects of that part of his game this week but I will take the chance that one is off. Hadwin also has another leaderboard analysis going against him this week which I will discuss later.
Patrick Cantlay 9k is playing very good golf recently as he has five consecutive T27 finishes. Cantlay is striking the ball well during those five tournaments but his putter has not been hot as he has gained strokes of more than one in only one of those tournaments. Many would say that Cantlay is a hot putting week away from a win but I don’t feel it will happen this week. I will have my fair share of him this week but he will be paired with 2-3 players who I feel have high win equity. I see a T10 as a solid finish for Cantlay this week but I don’t think he can win a birdie fest as he rarely scores better than -10. I will have more on Cantlay later, stay tuned.
I have no interest in Stu Cink 7.1k this week as I feel he has already peaked. The course is long and I don’t see him recording another T20.
I faded Justin Rose 9.3k last week and I will do the same this week. Rose has missed four cuts at this course which is fairly high for a player of his caliber. In my opinion Rose has little win equity as he is more of a T10 machine. Last week I took the approach that I will play Zach Johnson over Rose as I felt both had T20 potential and I liked the savings on ZJ. This week I will take the same approach as he will be fairly popular and I feel I can find plays in the low to mid 8k’s with the same upside.
Another player I can’t blame you for playing is Phil Mickelson 8.2k. Phil has been wild off the tee but that didn’t bother him last week finishing in the T20. I feel it is important for him to get off to a good start this week or his focus will turn to Tiger and the Ryder Cup. I see Phil finishing T25-40 this week.
Pat Perez 6.9k is similar to Cink were I don’t have interest. Perez played well last year but unfortunately he has not been able to carry his play over as age and an impending baby might be overtaking his golf. I don’t see a T20 for Perez this week as I feel he likely finishes T40-60.
This one could burn me but Kevin Na 7.4k is a pass for me this week. Na is playing good golf recently and he has either played well or been a bust at TPC Boston. For me, Na is similar to Hadwin were he is going to need to hit long irons well along with putting good. Na has been doing this for several of his last tournaments and I have the feeling time may be running out on him as it’s a tough accomplishment to continue to achieve. In addition, just like Hadwin, Na has two leaderboard statistical whammies against him.
You often hear the question if you could choose one player to hit your drive, putt, etc as it was a matter of life and death. Often the answer will be Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, or Tiger Woods. So if I asked you if you were going into a battle what one player would you take? My answer may surprise you but I would have no qualms taking Patrick Reed 8.4k. Many people don’t like Reed but he is a warrior who will battle and when it comes down to the end he often finds himself near the top or at the top in tough battles. Reed loves this course as he has three solid finishes of T6 recently. Reed excels when it comes to playing golf in the Northeast and he putts very good on fast bentgrass greens. With all that being said, I do have my concerns about Reed this week. Will he be chalky and can he continue to putt well at TPC Boston are at the forefront as he has gained 5, 4, and 3 strokes putting the last three years while he enters this week losing strokes putting in three of his last four tournaments. On top of that if you look at his putting performance the previous three years entering this tourney he has been gaining strokes putting. So yes, putting is a big concern but not my biggest. You often hear people asking who is Tiger playing with because some feel that the circus he draws hurts the performance of others. No, Reed is not playing with Tiger this week but I told you I would have more on Patrick Cantlay later. Yes, that is correct I am worried about how Patrick Cantlay may affect Reed because Cantlay can be a very annoying player to be paired with as he is slow. Don’t believe me, and I will not list every occurrence as there have been several, but ask Jon Rahm what it was like playing with Cantlay last week. So how does this affect Reed? Reed is a volatile player emotionally, similar to Rahm, who can easily be distracted by others as evident by his issue with photographers and camera crew in Europe recently. Reed will probably be the last player I decide on this week as to if he makes my player pool and if he is chalky I will avoid. I hope he comes in at no more than 10-12%.
Paul Casey 7.9k has finished top ten the last two years at TPC Boston but prior to that he has finished 25th, MC and WD. I am hoping that the current form that Casey is showing continues while the price and previous results at TPC Boston drive his ownership up. I will gladly pivot away from Casey to other players in his price range with lower ownership and similar upside.
Last week out of 29 players within my player pool 25 made the cut. Unfortunately for me, Jon Rahm 9.1k was one of those players and I owned him at 33%. I have no issues going back to Rahm this week as I feel I was stupid for playing him on a course that has thick rough when his game plan is to play bomb and gauge. Not to mention I was oblivious to the fact he was playing with Cantlay. I am hoping Rahm will come in lower owned, around 10%, and I hope he brings his putter with him as he hasn’t been putting the best. Over the last six tournaments Rahm has played he has been boom or bust with the putter as he ranged from -6 strokes putting to +3 while alternating that pattern in which this week should be a positive one. On top of that he putted extremely well last year in his debut gaining 9.5 strokes. On top of this, Drew Mathews @redkacheek posted this nugget to support my thoughts on Rahm’s putting. “Since 2017, in the events immediately following a tournament where Jon Rahm had lost at least 3 strokes Putting, his SG:P saw quite the turnaround…”
Marc Leishman 8k finishes third last year but he has not been playing his best golf this year. I feel last year was an anomaly for Leishman as he has finished 40th or worse six times at TPC Boston. I played Leishman last year at this tourney but he was 6.9k, not 8k.
I am very interested in seeing what the ownership is on Jordan Spieth 10k this week. Last week, Spieth had higher ownership in the contests that were higher buy ins and I feel you will see the same this week. I have listened to a few podcasts so far and Spieth has been mentioned positively in most so far. Spieth has gained strokes putting over his last five tournaments and in his last two he has been positive on approach. This week off the tee isn’t as important and that is the part of the game that Spieth is struggling with. I am hoping this is the week that all forms of the game come together for Spieth and that the podcasts don’t drive his ownership up as I want to see it in the 10-12% range.
The last player to discuss who finished in the T20 who is playing this year is Justin Thomas 11.4k. I currently have mixed feelings on Thomas this week. Thomas is not the best bentgrass putter when the conditions are fast and if you look at his wins several are on bermuda surfaces. With all that said, he has gained strokes putting at TPC Boston in two of three appearances. Putting is my focus for Thomas this week because he is gaining strokes in every other facet of his game on a consistent basis. It is hard for me to get past the following stats for Thomas, SG Putting and 5-10’ putting range on fast bentgrass greens. When you look at those two stats Thomas is in the bottom and darn close to dead last within the field no matter how many rounds I use, 4, 8, 12, 24 or 36.
So when looking at last years T20 I will be in on Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay and Brooks Koepka. The last spot will come down to Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and Patrick Reed and as I write this I am thinking who has the most win equity of the three and do I back out on Cantlay due to his limited win equity. Many may ask why don’t I just go ahead and play the seven above but based on the numbers only five will finish in the T20.
Earlier I mentioned that Kevin Na and Adam Hadwin had a second leaderboard statistic that was going against them. Not only did I look at the T20 of last years Dell tournament but I have looked at T20 of the Northern Trust leaderboard to see how the mid to lower tier players who finished T20 at Northern Trust finish the following week at the Dell tournament. Over the last five years only Gary Woodland (wasn’t T50 world golf ranking last year, will explain later) and Russell Knox, players mid tier and below, have followed up a T20 at the Northern Trust with one at the Dell. This means I can feel comfortable passing on Billy Horschel, Aaron Wise, Ryan Palmer, Nick Watney, Bronson Burgoon, Adam Hadwin, and Jhonattan Vegas. I feel this is an edge that many overlook as most of the players I mentioned will carry a higher ownership than warrants due to solid finishes last week. Some will challenge the sample size for this T20 theory but on avg there are 8 mid/low tier players who finish T20 over the last five years at the Dell and as you can see the the % to follow up is very low. I will also disclose that two players who finished T20 last week are borderline upper/mid tier players. That would be Kevin Na and Cam Smith. If not for the win by Na a few weeks ago and the performance by Smith last week both would be outside the T50 world golf rankings.
9k and Above Not Previously Discussed
Rory McIlroy 10.6k is someone that will most likely come in at lower ownership but in my opinion higher than what it should be. Rory is dominant off the tee but his wedge game and putting is just as bad as his off the tee game is good. Yes, he has great history at TPC Boston but he currently can’t score because his wedge and putting game is off by so much. I will pass on Rory and take Rory 2.0 aka Brooks Koepka.
Jason Day 10.4k says he likes TPC Boston and he sees things well at the course. Day has solid history never missing a cut and finishing in the T10 three times. I feel the approach game for Day is still off as he has posted just two scores of +2 or more strokes gained in this area for the year. I also feel Day is a better putter on poa and bermuda than he is on bentgrass, although in general he is a great putter. I am hoping Day finishes 7th-15th while the players I have in my pool that are priced similar to him finish better.
I like Tiger Woods 9.7k as he is great for the game but it seems like every week you hear the Tiger narrative and why the course is a good fit for him to take down his first win since returning. This week the narrative is he can’t have two consecutive weeks of poor putting. If you pull the stats on fast bentgrass greens Tiger has posted average results at best. I will continue to ride that stat even though he continues to hit his irons very good. For these reasons, along with his price, Tiger will once again be a popular play this week. All of that is fine but the real reason I am fading Tiger is because I believe in his mind the season is over. Golf is mentally exhausting and I feel Tiger is on the downside mentally. Tiger has two golf goals, don’t get hurt and win a major. Tiger put on a great show and played great at the PGA Championship but I feel that was the peak for his desire this year and moving forward all the other tournaments he plays will be hard to get up for. Tiger doesn’t care about the FedEx as he has won it already and the money he would receive is equal to what he will receive in a few months to play Phil. I am not saying Tiger will MC this week but I feel he is more than likely to finish 20-40th, similar to last week. I can also see Tiger taking it easier as he is in for a long stretch of golf over the next month and he most likely wants to peak at East Lake.
Some feel he is a cheater but there is no denying that Adam Scott 9.4k is playing great golf. I feel that golfers peak in a 3-4 week time period for the year and Scott is currently within that time frame coming off two T5 finishes. Scott is a great striker of the ball and his putting has been on and I feel he is headed for a win very soon. I am hoping the price detracts people from him so he stays relatively lower owned. If you are a statistical driven DFS player then Scott is your play as his last two weeks have been stellar all around.
8.9k to 8k Thoughts
Like most people, I feel Hideki Matsuyama 8.9k is heading in the right direction. I am not worried about the ownership on Mats as I will just play different players than most with him to help offset the ownership. Mats has played well his last two tournament starts and has solid but not spectacular history at TPC Boston. As always the biggest fear with Mats is that his putter goes south but the hope is that the iron game is sharp which should help the flat stick.
I like Tony Finau 8.8k the golfer but I don’t feel the same about the DFS player. Finau continues to score DK points and the community continues to play him at high ownership. Luck has been on the side of Finau this year after his Masters debacle with his ankle and posting T5 in three majors but it surely has to run out. Finau is a fade for me as I feel his game is currently filled with luck. Finau hasn’t been hitting fairways but he continues to hit greens at a high rate due to his exceptional play out of the rough. He has been carrying a fairly hot flat stick and last week he entered as one of the worse players around the green and in sand saves only to gain almost 9, yes I said 9, strokes around the green. That might be the highest amount of strokes gained around the green that I have seen. After finishing in the T5, Finau’s best follow up is a 21st with several MC in there. Finau has been successful at golf recently but the way he has been achieving is not the preferred style and variance will catch up with him.
I am indifferent this week on Bryson DeChambeau 8.7k as I feel he will finish somewhere between 10th and 25th. I am not big on playing someone the week after they win especially in strong fields as people tend to jump on. If DeChambeau is above 18% I will most likely pass as I feel there are plenty of options within his price range. If he comes in around 15% I will be more interested as I feel at his price a 10th to 25th place finish with the potential for slightly better won’t hurt you.
When looking for leverage plays I often look for players who are priced around players who I feel will be higher owned. Enter Henrik Stenson 8.6k as he is surrounded by Finau, Mats, DeChambeau and Tommy Fleetwood. On top of that the injury bug is associated with Stenson. I would be surprised if he comes in above 10% but could be as low as 6-7%. Stenson has a win and a second at TPC Boston while never missing a cut. He is a world class player at a more than fair price who will be low owned so I have no problem being 15% on Stenson this week.
Next up is the Euro version of Finau in Tommy Fleetwood 8.5k. Fleetwood is usually pretty solid off the tee but last week he was just average and with one of the stronger parts of his game not being a statistic that I am targeting this week I will pass on him. Fleetwood isn’t long off the tee, he is accurate while Koepka is long off the tee which I feel will help him this week. Just wanted to add that since I mentioned my like for Koepka even though the off the tee game isn’t dominant this week statistically. Back to Fleetwood, he is also not as comfortable on bentgrass greens as bermuda. Tommy may very well finish 15th but he could also finish 35th. Personally, I don’t get as excited about Fleetwood as most do.
The Dead Zone 8.3k to 7.6k
I will elaborate later on why I feel this price range will be dead but I really like Webb Simpson 8.3k this week. I can easily see Webb coming in at under 10% this week. Simpson has been striking the ball well up until last week and if he gets that aspect of his game back he could be in for a solid finish. Webb has always struggled putting at TPC Boston and now that he has found that part of his game consistently performing I expect him to outperform his most recent history results.
It is of my opinion that one of the worse things a DFS player can do is label a player as one that I won’t play again. By doing this you will always be limiting yourself to potential upside. This is the case for Louie Oosthuizen 7.8k as he has burned many with the WD. I lost 18% of my lineups a few weeks back when he WD but since I don’t tilt in golf I have no issues going back. The way I look at it is, if losing 18% of my lineups due to a WD is the worse thing that happens to me the next four days then life is pretty darn good. Oosthuizen will be low owned this week, has a solid history at TPC Boston and his chances of finishing better than Casey, Woodland, and Na are good.
I have been on Tyrell Hatton 7.7k the last few weeks and will continue to play him. Hatton has showed over his last two tournaments that he has the ability to go low as he shot a pair of 64’s. Hatton is an emotional player so a solid start is best for him and I will be watching his ownership this week as I don’t want a huge amount of him. I would like to see him come in at 7-10% so I can go around 15-20%. Kenny Kim posted this nugget on Hatton this week. “Hatton has 11 T20s on PGA Tour. 8 have come at Majors/WGC/FEC playoffs. 2 of his other T20s came at Bay Hill and Honda, usually strong fields. It seems like strong field events are his forte. 1st time hes played the FEC playoffs. 20th last wk. I can see a BHO/Moore run by him.”
The final golfer that I am interested in from the dead zone is Matt Kuchar 7.5k. Kuchar is not having a great season and he needs a solid performance to move onto the third leg of the FedEx Cup. Kuchar has missed the cut at TPC Boston once while having four T15 finishes. I expect Kuchar to come in lower owned this week and much like Oosthuizen he has the upside to place better than the chalkier plays in his price range.
7.4k to 7k
This is a range that is loaded with name players this week and very well may determine who wins a GPP if you can latch onto the correct players. Let’s start with Ian Poulter 7.4k who has one thing on his mind and that is form heading into the Ryder Cup. Poulter is trending the wrong way after posting some solid finishes but TPC Boston may be the course to help him get back on the right side. After missing the cut several times earlier in his career here, Poulter has posted a 9th place finish to go along with three finishes ranging from 23rd to 33rd. Recently Poulter has struggled off the tee so hopefully that will be minimized this week while his approach game and putting has been slightly above average. Poulter has putted well in the past at TPC Boston gaining around 2 strokes consistently. I see him coming in around 10% so I have no problem going in at 15%.
One of my favorite plays in this range is Daniel Berger 7.2k and he arrives with two T15 finishes in his last three tournaments. Many people will be off Berger due to his wrist issues but I am not worried about that after finishing 15th last week on a course with thick rough. Berger has finished 61st and 42nd at TPC Boston the last two years but if you look deeper those finishes were derailed by one bad round each year, a 77 and 74. If Berger can avoid that one bad round he can finish T15 like he did three years ago at ownership no more than 5%.
I don’t play Xander Schauffele 7.2k all to often but he is an intriguing player for me this week. X man is someone that can come out of nowhere to post a T5 result. In addition he is still hanging on by a thread for a potential Ryder Cup bid if he can post very good results over the next three weeks. X man prefers bentgrass greens but if you look at his statistical performance over the last several weeks no part of his game sticks out with success and the majority is just bad. Due to his high risk I will most likely fall even to the field on X this week just to protect myself.
It’s always a good reason to follow not only golfers on twitter but the ladies will also contribute and can be helpful. At the beginning of the week I was high on Jimmy Walker 7.1k as I knew he would be a low owned player who is boom or bust this week and one I wanted a piece of. Walker is not the greatest off the tee which helps this week and he has posted two T10 finishes over the last four years to go along with several MC. Over his last three tournaments Walker is trending the wrong way with a result of 71st last week. Well, Jimmy’s wife posted on twitter today that he has not been feeling well this week and Boston could go either way.
Next to Daniel Berger, Kyle Stanley 7.1k will be a high owned player for me within this range. Stanley hits the ball straight, is a solid ball striker who hits several greens which provides several birdie opportunities. Stanley needs all the birdie putts he can get since he is not a strong putter but on the bright side he excels on fast bentgrass greens which is supported by his results at Firestone, TPC Avenel and Murifield Village. Stanley has been playing well tee to green but has lost strokes putting recently so he is due to gain 3-5 strokes putting this week. By the way, he is the 29th ranked player in the world at 7.1k.
Kevin Kisner 7k has not had the best of years but he has showed some signs of life recently. Kisner still has a small outside shot at the Ryder Cup team if he can pull off 2-3 very good performances. Kisner is also playing to get into the T30 at East Lake as he sits 38th so he has plenty of motivation to perform well this week. What I like most about Kisner is he putts very well on fast bentgrass greens. Kisner will be another sub 5% player this week who can finish within the T20 if all falls in the right place.
If you are looking for a ball striking machine who is playing very well tee to green look no farther than Benny An 7k. Now that you have An on your team you need to find a designated putter for him. Two of the last three weeks An has lost 7 and 9 strokes putting. The good news is he is probably due for some positive regression putting that will still leave him negative strokes putting. If An can continue to strike the ball well he can easily provide a finish as high as T20 but no lower than T35 with a solid putting week by his standards. Also good news is that An is a better putter on bentgrass although still poor.
Branden Grace 7k is a solid player who thrives on difficult courses that produce lower scores. TPC Boston doesn’t fit that mold but he has two finishes of 25th and 41st. Up until recently Grace was having a solid year making every cut but he has missed two recently. Grace typically is a player that churns out the occasional birdie with limited bogeys and I feel the price tag for his ability is very cheap this week as I feel he is a very safe play with potential T20 results at ownership that will come at under 5%.
I also don’t have issues with the following players in this range, I just don’t see the upside that the above has. Keegan Bradley 7.2k, Emiliano Grillo 7.1k, and Chez Reavie 7k.
I have won several hundred dollars playing the following player this year and I will continue to go back to the well on Beau Hossler 6.9k. Hossler has the wrap for being a player that starts hot but falls off on Sunday as he has faltered in the fourth round several times. I am not going to let one bad round move me away from Hossler as he has also played well on Sundays which is evident by his solid finishes in general. Out of all the young players on tour and in general Hossler is one of the best putters. Seven times this year he has gained 5.5 strokes or more putting and he prefers bentgrass greens. Hossler will be less than 5% owned and if he can get his tee to green game back in order he can easily finish T20 with a hot putter.
With TPC Boston having three par 5’s I am interested in Luke List 6.9k this week as he will be one of the few players who will have eagle shots on all three holes. List has cooled off from his hot play earlier this year and his ownership will be low once again. As always the problem with List is his putter. List is due for a solid round of putting, which for him would be even strokes gained. Playing List this week is more of a gut play than anything statistically backed.
Kevin Chappell 6.8k has had an overall poor year and he may still have some lingering back issues from earlier this year and I am just a sucker for playing him. Chappell, like Hossler, had one bad round last week but if you look past that he has shot 68-72 in 14 of his last 15 rounds. Chappell is a risky play but has the potential to finish T20 if he can putt his game together. Chappell has finished in the T22 at TPC Boston three of six appearances. Chappell will be low owned so it won’t take much to be overweight.
Next to Beau Hossler, Jason Kokrak 6.7k is one of my favorite plays in this price range. Kokrak has two T20 finishes at TPC Boston in five tries. Kokrak has been playing solid golf recently and if he gets the flat stick rolling he could finish well. Over his career at TPC Boston Kokrak has solid putting rounds which is a plus. I expect Kokrak to come in at under 4-5% owned.
My next player is completely a gut play as he has missed four of his last five cuts and his play around the green along with his putting has been atrocious. That would be one JB Holmes 6.7k. Holmes has solid results at TPC Boston making six of eight cuts and usually finishing in the 30-40th range. JB is a much better player than his recent results and will probably fall in the under 1% category. If I can get a T30-40 out of JB at his ownership and his savings it should pay solid dividends as I will be able to roster several solid to great players with him.
If I told you I have a player who has two wins this year and has gained 5 strokes on approach in his last two tournaments while being a T20 player from the 175-200 yards and 200+ yards proximity during that timeframe you would probably be excited. That is until I tell you that player is Patton Kizzire 6.4k. I don’t think I have ever played Kizzire until this week but I am totally interested. As seen above he is striking the ball well and just needs to have a solid putting week to go along with his iron play. Kizzire has plenty to play for to. He is currently in the T30 and he very much wants to stay there. He is a southern boy and would absolutely love to play at East Lake this year which would also mean he will be going back to Augusta National as the players who qualify for East Lake get an invitation. Playing Kizzire allows you to fit five players at 8.3k or above on your roster. If Kizzire finishes T40 and you hit the right studs you may find yourself with a very good lineup that will be unique since he will be less than 1% owned.
Other players I may consider in this range would be Russell Knox 6.9k, Peter Uihlein 6.6k, Anirban Lahiri 6.6k, and Si Woo Kim 6.6k.
Several hundred words ago, I mentioned that I had two reasons for looking at leaderboard analysis. Some of you probably forgot that I mentioned this but it’s now time to discuss this second reason. I feel what I am about to discuss is low on the typical DFS players strategy and is rarely discussed on podcasts/articles but in my opinion a very important part of the game, roster construction. Most in the DFS community construct a roster based on players recent statistical form along with ownership projections. Unfortunately, very few look at the past leaderboards of a particular tournament to determine what type of players are finishing in the T20 in order to help construct a solid roster. Earlier I mentioned mid and lower tier level players. I identify anyone within the T50 world golf rankings as upper tier and anyone 51-100 would be mid with 101+ low. If you look at the previous two leaderboards for this particular tournament roughly 60% of the T20 comes from the world T50, 20% 51-100 and 20% 101+. In addition if you look at the the players who finished T4 they are all players typically priced 8k and above. This helps me define what type of construction I am lookin for. Listed below will be the majority of roster formats I will be using this week.
3 players 8.9k and above matched with 3 at 7k and above
3 players 8.9k and above matched with 2 in dead zone and one under 7k
4 players 8.3k and above matched with one dead zone and one under 7k
5 players 8.3k and above matched with one under 7k
5 players 7.7k and above matched with one under 7k
3 players 8.9k and above matched with three under 7k
Using these formats allows me to potentially grab 3-5 players who have the potential to finish within the T5. In no way will I have less than three players at 8.9k on any roster this week.
Earlier I had mentioned the dead zone. This is the pricing range that I feel will be ignored this week as I feel the majority will play stars and scrubs rosters. Thus why I feel Webb, Hatton, Oosthuizen and Kuchar will be fairly low owned.
My final piece of strategy this week will fall with ownership. Since the 6/6 is projected high I feel it is a bad week to go underweight on a player, by the way I rarely do this on regular weeks. If Tiger Woods is 20% owned and you decide to go in at 10% what makes you think that your 10% of lineups with him will be better than the general 20%? On a typical week I try to come in at 1.5-2x projected ownership of the players I have in my pool. This week I will shoot for 2-4x which will provide me additional cover on lineups that has a player within my pool who has busted for the week. In addition by having 3-5 players on every roster at 8.3k and above I feel I will be able to achieve 2-4x on the players who are projected at higher ownership within this range. I will have at least 10% ownership on all my lower projected ownership plays which will allow me a higher success rate of matching them with the proper plays at the top. Finally, the last piece is determine which players to play in what contests. Kizzire, Walker and JB are players that I will play only in high entry GPP contests as they are not good plays in small entry single and three max contests. I feel Webb, Hatton, Oosthuizen, Kuchar and many within the 7.3 to 7k range are good for single entry and three max as that will be very low owned (lower than large entry GPP) while offering upside.
Listed below are stats I will be focused on this week. When I look at stats I first start with the 50 round avg and try to find players who are trending positively and negatively over the last 4, 8, 12, and 24 rounds. This allows me to determine who I feel is a solid play this week vs a potential bomb.
Proximity 175-200 yds and 200+
SG Putting on Fast Bentgrass Greens
Putting Within the Range of 5-10’ and 10-15’
Birdie or Better
Hopefully you have found this blog beneficial and you have taken away something that will help you this week as well as the future. If you enjoyed the blog give it a thumb shot up and or post a comment.