CSGO - DreamHack 10-19
This is my first Blog post of all time, so hopefully I can format this reasonably to be readable and coherent. I do want to start out by saying that WxFan21 also has great input when it come to CSGO DFS and his blog posts are great too! I believe there is a major edge to be had by truly diving into the teams and not just looking at which players may be underpriced or overpriced on their average points per match. But instead, breaking down what maps are going to be played based on normal ban patterns, breaking down what players typically play what site on those maps, taking a look at H2H matchups that are somewhat recent, and using all of that to determine what players are going to have the most opportunities to outperform their average scores. I’ve been doing this over the past couple of weeks and have had pretty great success. To the point that CSGO has become my most profitable DFS sport.
My plan for these blog posts are going to be to break down the main slate each day. I’ll give some in depth info on each matchup, including likely map picks, players who have recently had the best success on those maps do to playstyle/position, and how many games I think that match will go. At the end of the post, after going through the individual matchups, I’ll give my favorite plays and least favorite plays with a short recap on why I think that. I’ll try to give my best opinion on cash as well but most of my info will be for GPP’s.
Typically this will be where I recap what my picks from yesterday’s (or whenever the previous blog was) slate ended up doing. Since I didn’t do a blog yesterday, I’ll recap my general plays from the slate today, the 10-18 IEM CIS slate. A quick disclaimer, I only entered a couple of lineups today in some smaller contests because I may or may not have been on vacation with my girlfriend and fell asleep after doing my research. So I wasted time out of my vacation and barely entered any lineups at all…solid choice.
Espada vs. K23
- Patsi – I absolutely loved Patsi today. I thought he was the play of the day not just in this match, but across all 4 games on the slate. I thought both Inferno and Nuke would be played, and thankfully they were. Patsi had great history on these maps not only in actual performance, but in playing on the, as I refer to them, action sites. Some sites are targeted more than other on certain maps, and if a player has a history of playing a specific action site, then they will naturally have a better chance at popping off, or at the least having a lot of kills. On Inferno, the action site is typically B. And Patsi is normally posted up there. He absolutely crushed today and would have made me some real nice money, had Navi not fucked everything. But I’ll talk about that later.
- FinigaN – I honestly thought he was just too cheap. I didn’t like him for his positioning but I liked Spirit to win this 2-0 or at the least a dominate 2-1. He didn’t end up popping off like some of the other’s on the team, but he did score over 63 points on DK which more than made him worth his salary.
Least Favorite Play:
- Degster – I didn’t really like Degster for his price today. He didn’t pop when I checked past history on Inferno and Nuke and for his 9.2k price point, I just couldn’t validate putting him in that much. There were other top priced plays that I wanted in that I’ll talk about. I ended up being dead wrong. Degster popped off and crushed pretty hard.
Winstrike vs. Gambit
- Ax1Le – For this matchup, the maps that I thought were going to get played were Vertigo and Overpass. However, Vertigo didn’t end up getting played because it was the third map. I’m pretty tilted though, because Ax1Le was popping off on map positioning and recent results on Vertigo and Overpass, and I still didn’t pick him. Now, Vertigo didn’t get played, but he still absolutely crushed today. Oh well, it happens.
- sh1ro – I liked sh1ro more than Degster so I ended up plugging him in. The best player on a team that I expected to win their match. He had some positive history on the maps I expected so I liked him quite a bit. He definitely did well but didn’t pop off as much as Degster so the pick isn’t technically perfect, because sh1ro was $600 more expensive than Degster, but he did plenty fine to pay off his salary.
Least Favorite Play:
- Entire Winstrike Team – I mean, yeah, I just didn’t like them. Gambit looked good to roll this series, and they did. Didn’t even really feel that El1an should be played. Although this is the only person that felt like a reasonable GPP play in the case this match went 2-1.
Spirit vs. Hellraisers
- Mir – Mir was the hands down, best play on the slate. I didn’t care that he was 10k. He looked that good in my map research. I couldn’t justify cramming him into the captain spot, but I felt like he was a better play than S1mple and Degster, so I faded them and picked him.
- Chopper – Chopper had great map positioning for the maps that I was expecting, specifically playing B site on Inferno. He often plays as the aggressor in Banana which gives him fantastic chances to pop off on Inferno. He didn’t exactly have the best Inferno, but he did go 17-10. He then had a nice Overpass and a really nice overall game.
Least Favorite Plays:
- iDISBALANCE & all of HellRaisers – iDISBALANCE was just too expensive for the other options at the top prices. HellRaisers just were outmatched and I didn’t want to even hedge my bets. Spirit was just the better team.
NaVi vs. Forze
- Perfecto – I’ll keep this short. He looked great on my research. I loved the pick. But he got Covid. So…unlucky.
- xsepower – I thought this would go 3 maps and possibly even a Forze win. xsepower, although expensive, looked like a fantastic play. But, cancelled game.
Least Favorite Plays:
- S1mple – Didn’t have good map correlation honestly. And for his price, there were just better options at the top that had weaker matchups and better map correlation.
Overall, I actually cashed in the main GPP with my 4/6 that played. Perfecto and flamie didn’t play and I still managed a cash. So that pretty dope. But man, I had a good chance to win if that game played. Oh well. Onto tomorrow.
Now on to tomorrow’s, October 19th, slate.
Astralis vs. GODSENT
- Most Likely Maps: Nuke and Overpass very likely played.
- Device – Most expensive player on the slate, so obviously he can’t be that bad right? But in all seriousness, Device has fantastic recent results on Overpass and equally great on Nuke. His kill participation is through the roof which tells me he has lots of opportunities and as the main awper for Astralis, he is going to generally have slightly fewer deaths as the rest of his team too. Device has the highest floor on the slate and arguably the highest ceiling, although you are truly paying for it.
- Maden – Extremely cheap and I think that this match may actually go 3 maps. The question is can he be consistent and not have a melt down game in any of the 3 maps? He has some really nice results on Nuke, including a major pop off game against FaZe in their last match. He does play the action site, which is A, on Nuke which gives him a positive chance to beat his average score. Overpass hasn’t been as successful but he seems to be involved in a lot of action. He typically has a decently high kill count but also a high death count. Although he plays on the non-action site, site A, he plays an aggressive position and often times looks for flanks and early duels. Maden has a low floor if GODSENT get rolled, but his ceiling is upwards of 80 points if they play 3 maps and he can stay consistent.
Least Favorite Play
- es3tag – Low Volume on Overpass, pretty low volume recent results on Nuke, aside from one. But overall, for almost 9k, I’m gonna be full fading I think.
Fnatic vs. North
- Most Likely Maps: Inferno and Overpass.
- KRIMZ – Krimz is hands down the best play in this game. He has the best map correlation results on all of fnatic and fnatic are going to be heavy favorites going into the match. You really can’t go wrong with playing the best player on a heavily favored team that also has positive map results. Feels like a great play. Even for 9.2k.
- Golden – He is 4.8k, on a heavily favored team, and he plays B site on Inferno, which I think is getting played…. I mean, this feels too easy. His floor is decent. He has solid map results on Inferno and pretty average results on Overpass, nothing special there. But man, this feels like awesome value.
Least Favorite Play
- Gade – Listen. He has decent map correlation. I get it. But 8k? No thanks. It’s not that good. If he was 7k or less I might say it’s not a bad play. If you want to play somebody from North, the best play is Lekr0 at 5.6k. Anybody else either has terrible map correlation or is too expensive.
BIG vs. G2
- Vertigo and Dust 2 are the most likely first two picks. And then I have a feeling it’ll be Mirage for the tiebreak.
- Hunter – Really solid player on Vertigo, really solid on Dust 2. I mean, he plays the action site on Vertigo. And I like this match to be the most likely to go 3 full games. Hunter has a great chance to crush and he’s at 8.4k, so you can work him into your lineup easily and even the captain spot if you want to.
- tabseN – He has almost an identical rating on Dust 2 and Vertigo combined as both Xantares and syrsoN and is only 7.8k. A really great price and nice pivot off of both of them who will likely be as high if not higher owned.
Least Favorite Play
- k1to – Low priced, on the favorite team, and I still won’t be touching him. Terrible map correlation and is just not put in a position to succeed on this team. No thanks.
Well…this turned into a book. Hopefully somebody reads it and enjoys it. And, most importantly, hopefully it helps somebody make some money. Please comment or message with any advice or questions, I’ll try to give it a look before lock. Good luck all!