CSGO - IEM 2/19
Just writing up some thoughts on the main IEM slate for today. Not going to be super professional as I’m doing this pretty last minute, but just wanted to get some thoughts out there.
Game 1 – Astralis vs EG
Prediction – Astralis 2-0
Predicted Maps – Inferno, Nuke
Favorite Play – $10,400 device – Device is in a great spot. And is priced up to the most expensive player on the slate as a result. The AWP’er, on the best team on the slate, and has fantastic results on my predicted maps…yeah I’m taking a lot of Device. I know he is expensive, but there are so many places you can spend down on the slate that you shouldn’t even blink. You can even put him in you captain spot and build a team with salary left over. He is my second favorite play on the entire slate.
Other Good Plays – Xyp9x, Cerq – Xyp9x also has really nice stats for my predicted maps. And at $7k, I really like him paired with Device. If you are going contrarian, and want some shares of EG in the case of a big upset, start with Cerq. He is the AWP’er for EG and if they win, will play a large role. He is $6k, and has solid stats for my predicted maps. But I won’t have almost any shares because Astralis is going to win this series.
Game 2 – Mouz vs Gambit
Prediction – Either one of them 2-1
Predicted maps – Dust, Inferno, Vertigo
Favorite Play – $4,400 acoR – acoR has a chance to absolutely smash. An AWP’er, in an equally matched game, and has above average stats on my predicted maps. These teams also played 3 days ago, which makes predicting maps and results a little easier. It was a hard fought, 2-1 win for Gambit. acoR performed pretty well for being on the losing team, and considering he is the 3rd cheapest player on the entire slate, he has insane upside. It’s an odd misprice to price the main AWP’er on a team that isn’t expected to get blown out by any stretch this low. Don’t think twice. Have some acoR shares. Even if they lose 0-2, he can still smash value. It’s a great free square in my eyes.
Other Good Plays – Everybody besides Bymas and interz – Honestly, this matchup is so difficult. Because you have two teams that can win 2-0 or lose 0-2 just as easily. Both teams have players who can absolutely hard carry. ropz and frozen, considering their price, can solo carry their teams and absolutely break the slate. But they can just as easily go 30-42 and kill your LU. On the other side, you have sh1ro, who is an unbelievably talented AWP’er and the centerpiece of his team. But for $10k, I don’t feel confident about him enough to go heavy on. This matchup is super tough, so I’ll probably just go lighter than average on it. My guess, is that one of frozen, ropz, or sh1ro have an absolutely pop off day, but I’m not sure which.
Game 3 – Spirit vs Hero
Prediction – Spirit 2-1
Predicted Maps – Nuke, Train/Overpass
Favorite Play – It’s a tie. Degster/mir – This is my favorite play on slate. Degster and mir pop off on my predicted maps and they are the underdog in this match. My favorite part, is the Hero players are price down a bit. Which I hope will draw people in and play them more. I think Spirit players have a great chance of being underowned and I am going heavy on them. I will have some shares of Hero players, but Degster and mir are going to take me to the promise land. I’ll be smashing Degster in the Captain spot too. Definitely will have some mir in the captain spot, also Device from earlier, but Degster will be my most owned Captain.
Other Good Plays – cadiaN, TeSeS – Listen, as much as I love Spirit players in this matchup, I wouldn’t be smart if I didn’t have some shares of the priced down Hero players. cadiaN and TeSeS are the best plays from Hero. Priced down, high upside, but likely high ownership.
Game 4 – G2 vs BIG
Prediction – G2 2-1
Predicted Maps – Inferno, Dust, Mirage
Favorite Play – kennyS – First off, these teams haven’t played in about 2 months, and since then, their map preferences really haven’t changed. So I expect the same maps honestly. In that match, BIG won 2-1 in an insanely close matchup. That was when niko was new to the team. Since then, G2 has had tons of time to practice and play games and get used to their new lineup. kennyS popped off in that game in a loss. And at $6,200, I love his value here.
Other Good Plays – NiKo – Probably the most talented rifle player on the roster. So if G2 plays well, it’s very likely it’s because NiKo has a good day. His upside is massive, and his downside is genuinely minimal. Even if they lose 0-2, he will salvage enough points to keep your cashing dreams alive. And at $8k, that is quite cheap for a player with that sort of upside.