Daily Fantasy Golf: The Barclays Picks & Projections

After a week off, the golf projections are back at it again this week for the Barclays which is the first event in the FedEx Cup. Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s quickly recap the PGA Championship picks because I have to toot my own horn a little:

dustin johnson 550x330

Dustin Johnson – $17,730 – Finished with a -3 good enough for a tie for 8th.

Zach Johnson – $17,022 – Also finished with a -3 to tie for 8th.

Jason Dufner – $18,039 – Winner winner chicken dinner, finished with a -10 for first place!

Ian Poulter – $15,802 – The one ugly duckling on my team, finished with a +8.

Jim Furyk – $15,217 – Very nice -8 for a second place finish.

Webb Simpson – $15,761 – +1 tied for 25th.

So as you can see, the projections worked out pretty well for the PGA Championship, this team was good enough for an 8th place finish in Draftstreet’s Big Score event that had 150 people in it I believe. The point of the recap is not to brag about my picks though, it is just to point out that these projections do have some merit, they are a good tool to find guys that are underpriced and that should perform well each week.

This week I have used three different criteria in these projections. First off, is the player’s odds to win this tournament. Vegas knows what they are doing and I think the odds are a big contributor to these projections. Next up is the % of cuts made, in daily fantasy golf having all of your guys make the cut is crucial to your success. Finally, the last criteria is how many top ten finishes each player has. Using these three as a guide, I came up with a player rating for each player as you can see below. The rating is from 1-100 with 100 being the highest rank.

Barclay’s PGA Player Projections 2013

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Player Name Avg Odds to Win Events Cuts % Cuts Top 10’s Player Rating Projection Salary $/Point
Bill Haas 49 21 15 71.43% 9 80.8 22.65 $16,051.00 $708.65
Matt Jones 129 21 16 76.19% 4 55.2 17.14 $12,230.00 $713.64
Bubba Watson 64 18 14 77.78% 3 70.3 20.96 $14,971.00 $714.18
Jordan Spieth 48 19 14 73.68% 7 77.3 22.45 $16,069.00 $715.77
Jason Day 28 17 16 94.12% 6 90 26.00 $18,658.00 $717.62
Rickie Fowler 57 19 15 78.95% 4 72.6 21.13 $15,190.00 $718.88
Harris English 99 23 19 82.61% 4 65.5 19.57 $14,090.00 $719.98
Chris Kirk 139 21 18 85.71% 3 59 18.20 $13,142.00 $722.09
Ian Poulter 62 13 10 76.92% 3 71.3 20.91 $15,104.00 $722.33
Patrick Reed 91 23 14 60.87% 5 66.5 20.11 $14,548.00 $723.33
Angel Cabrera 104 18 14 77.78% 2 66.7 18.69 $13,644.00 $730.02
Billy Horschel 112 22 19 86.36% 7 69.9 19.75 $14,425.00 $730.38
Graeme McDowell 54 13 8 61.54% 4 69.6 20.54 $15,138.00 $737.09
Charley Hoffman 139 20 16 80.00% 5 61.1 16.92 $12,475.00 $737.29
Martin Laird 126 19 12 63.16% 2 57.2 17.78 $13,129.00 $738.62
Charl Schwartzel 50 15 12 80.00% 4 76.9 22.24 $16,455.00 $739.97
Sergio Garcia 46 13 11 84.62% 4 76 22.03 $16,340.00 $741.88
Robert Garrigus 104 20 12 60.00% 2 59.9 18.41 $13,768.00 $747.75
Jonas Blixt 81 21 12 57.14% 2 60.2 18.63 $13,987.00 $750.98
K J Choi 136 22 17 77.27% 2 54.6 16.93 $12,711.00 $751.02
Bo Van Pelt 114 20 14 70.00% 1 63.1 17.48 $13,148.00 $752.17
Boo Weekley 114 23 19 82.61% 4 61.4 19.05 $14,353.00 $753.44
John Merrick 146 20 13 65.00% 2 52.2 16.71 $12,693.00 $759.49
Jim Furyk 44 18 14 77.78% 5 80.6 22.88 $17,405.00 $760.87
Lee Westwood 35 16 14 87.50% 6 84.9 23.94 $18,228.00 $761.48
Gary Woodland 124 22 18 81.82% 1 50.7 16.50 $12,675.00 $768.18
Matt Kuchar 29 19 18 94.74% 7 89.6 24.79 $19,058.00 $768.86
Ryan Palmer 141 20 16 80.00% 4 49.5 16.29 $12,590.00 $772.99
Tim Clark 102 18 11 61.11% 3 55.6 17.35 $13,500.00 $778.10
Chris Stroud 193 23 15 65.22% 4 42.8 14.38 $11,271.00 $784.07
Jason Bohn 170 22 12 54.55% 2 44.3 14.80 $11,608.00 $784.32
Brendon de Jonge 161 26 21 80.77% 3 47.9 15.86 $12,454.00 $785.12
Martin Kaymer 53 15 11 73.33% 3 76 21.81 $17,139.00 $785.74
Scott Piercy 100 21 12 57.14% 4 56.7 17.56 $13,829.00 $787.42
Roberto Castro 129 25 15 60.00% 2 47.8 15.65 $12,348.00 $789.01
Keegan Bradley 36 21 16 76.19% 7 84.3 23.73 $18,758.00 $790.64
Hunter Mahan 33 21 16 76.19% 4 85.9 24.36 $19,264.00 $790.72
Michael Thompson 152 19 9 47.37% 3 42.5 14.16 $11,214.00 $791.81
Luke Donald 46 13 9 69.23% 4 75.8 21.60 $17,356.00 $803.52
Brandt Snedeker 31 19 14 73.68% 8 85.7 24.15 $19,512.00 $807.95
Webb Simpson 33 21 16 76.19% 4 79.3 22.66 $18,325.00 $808.60
Rory Sabbatini 100 23 13 56.52% 5 61.7 17.26 $14,040.00 $813.44
Ernie Els 59 16 11 68.75% 1 65.2 19.69 $16,108.00 $818.18
Ryan Moore 97 19 12 63.16% 3 57.4 17.99 $14,783.00 $821.85
Dustin Johnson 25 18 12 66.67% 5 86.2 24.58 $20,201.00 $822.01
Andres Romero 159 20 10 50.00% 2 45.6 15.23 $12,675.00 $832.51
Nick Watney 118 22 14 63.64% 2 49.4 16.08 $13,388.00 $832.85
Phil Mickelson 20 17 14 82.35% 6 93.1 28.00 $23,662.00 $845.07
Marc Leishman 141 20 13 65.00% 4 47.1 15.44 $13,108.00 $849.10
David Lingmerth 189 21 11 52.38% 3 38.1 12.89 $11,074.00 $859.28
Charles Howell III 121 23 15 65.22% 5 44.8 15.01 $12,931.00 $861.35
Justin Rose 30 13 10 76.92% 5 84 23.30 $20,116.00 $863.35
Adam Scott 16 12 11 91.67% 5 93.5 29.00 $25,131.00 $866.59
Jason Dufner 27 18 14 77.78% 3 84.1 23.51 $20,400.00 $867.62
Jerry Kelly 175 20 14 70.00% 2 39.3 13.31 $11,947.00 $897.43
David Lynn 157 19 11 57.89% 2 37.1 12.68 $11,391.00 $898.70
Bob Estes 186 16 13 81.25% 2 39.7 13.74 $12,406.00 $903.08
Henrik Stenson 19 14 11 78.57% 6 90.7 27.00 $24,611.00 $911.52
Rory McIlroy 19 13 10 76.92% 5 89.7 25.00 $23,589.00 $943.56
Kevin Streelman 129 21 14 66.67% 5 41.3 13.95 $13,232.00 $948.53
John Huh 116 25 14 56.00% 2 43.9 14.59 $13,870.00 $950.81
Russell Henley 125 21 14 66.67% 3 38.2 13.10 $12,818.00 $978.47
Bryce Molder 186 21 14 66.67% 0 32.4 11.61 $11,387.00 $980.58
Brian Harman 146 27 15 55.56% 2 39.7 13.53 $13,341.00 $986.40
Camilo Villegas 175 21 14 66.67% 2 33.7 12.04 $11,986.00 $995.72
Brendan Steele 150 23 15 65.22% 2 34.9 12.46 $12,473.00 $1,000.84
Graham DeLaet 143 22 17 77.27% 5 34.6 12.25 $12,341.00 $1,007.43
David Hearn 175 23 15 65.22% 2 30 11.19 $11,474.00 $1,025.61
Carl Pettersson 182 23 17 73.91% 1 33.3 11.83 $12,261.00 $1,036.87
Daniel Summerhays 175 23 12 52.17% 4 30.3 11.40 $11,941.00 $1,047.46
Chez Reavie 196 21 14 66.67% 0 29.8 10.76 $11,574.00 $1,075.40
Tiger Woods 5 12 11 91.67% 7 96.6 32.00 $34,473.00 $1,077.28
Fredrik Jacobson 143 17 11 64.71% 3 29.9 10.98 $11,969.00 $1,090.57
Jimmy Walker 157 21 16 76.19% 5 28.2 10.55 $11,741.00 $1,112.89
Matt Every 161 25 14 56.00% 3 24.9 10.13 $11,472.00 $1,133.04
John Senden 179 24 14 58.33% 0 23.8 9.91 $11,383.00 $1,148.35
Richard Lee 186 22 16 72.73% 2 23.6 9.70 $11,337.00 $1,168.76
Mark Wilson 182 18 9 50.00% 3 25 10.34 $12,179.00 $1,178.14
Charlie Wi 204 22 15 68.18% 1 20.3 8.85 $10,734.00 $1,212.88
William McGirt 200 22 14 63.64% 2 20.5 9.06 $11,006.00 $1,214.46
Jeff Overton 200 23 15 65.22% 2 23.5 9.49 $11,583.00 $1,220.87
Brian Davis 221 25 15 60.00% 3 19.2 8.43 $10,452.00 $1,240.59
Ben Crane 200 20 11 55.00% 2 22.8 9.28 $11,582.00 $1,248.73
J J Henry 207 25 16 64.00% 2 18.3 8.21 $10,757.00 $1,309.83
Geoff Ogilvy 186 18 8 44.44% 1 20.2 8.64 $12,122.00 $1,403.42

2013 Barclay’s Top Picks

Bill Haas – $16,051 – Really playing some good golf coming into this event with 4 top 10 finishes in his last 8 events. Haas does have 6 missed cuts, but I think he stays around for the weekend.

Bubba Watson – $14,971 – Give me Bubba at this price any day of the week. He is almost a guarantee to make the cut each week and could certainly make a run at a top 10 finish. I think he is the best value on the board this week.

Jordan Spieth – $16,069 – Spieth is playing some great golf and almost had a win last week but lost in a playoff. Spieth now has a 1st, 2nd, and 6th place finish in his last 6 events.

Matt Jones – $12,230 – Had a blazing -8 round last Sunday to finish in the top 10. He is really cheap and has made 16/21 cuts this season. I think he stays around for the weekend.

Adam Scott – $25,131 – You are going to have to spend somewhere this week and for me you can’t go wrong with Scott. He has played great in almost every event he has entered and will allow you to take those mid range value guys above.

Rickie Fowler – $15,190 – Fowler is a guy that will typically make the cut and finish in the top 25. He’s a safe play that goes perfectly with some of the other riskier plays.

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Comments

  • gibbathy

    2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year

    • Blogger of the Month

    We both have 2 Australians and 4 Americans with our picks this week. Nice work on the projections by the way.

  • Shawners

    I loved this article Where do you source your PGA data?

  • Notorious

    Lead RG Analyst

    • 75

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #57

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    Hey Shawners,

    Thanks for reading!

    For the odds part, I use OddsChecker, they have a nice feature that allows you to see odds from a lot of different sportsbook sites. As for the PGA data, I typically just use Draftstreet’s data.

  • Shawners

    Thanks again for the spot on analysis!

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