December 13th NHL Write Up
After being on Corisca.hockey and Daily Faceoff for the last few hours, here are some of my thoughts on the nice 10-game slate featuring a couple huge tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel. As usual, I’ll be sticking to the $3 and $4 tournaments so I won’t have any lineups in the huge tournaments. I’ll start by giving my thoughts on some stacks, some defensemen in good spots, and finish with some GPP goalie options. The lines I will reference are based on Daily Faceoff.
Chalk Stacks—These are stacks that should be between 10-20% owned on FanDuel.
WAS1—Great matchup for them against the Islanders who are poor possession team (45.46CF%). Tavares’ line should match up with this line but I wouldn’t let that scare me away as they play at a very high-pace but their CF% is only 46.5. Not to mention the Islanders commit almost 3.5 penalties per game and Kuznetzov, Ovechkin, and Williams all get power play time.
SJ1—”(player-popup)Joe Pavelski”:/players/joe-pavelski-14160 has four points in his last four, Toronto plays at the highest pace in the league, and this is also the highest over/under tonight currently at a -105 5.5 total. Naturally, many will look to stack the best line in the projected top scoring game. It’s going to be hard to fit them all in if you want to add in Brent Burns, but it’s worth a try as this line could explode in this matchup.
DET1—Arizona just got demolished last night in Pittsburgh by the tune of 7-0. The recency bias will inflate the ownership of Zetterberg’s line. They are definitely a solid play tonight, but Detroit is bottom 5 in score-adjusted corsi so I wouldn’t be expecting another route. I’ll have some exposure, but I won’t be breaking the bank on DET1 tonight. Zetterberg is questionable but I still think this line gets a lot of ownership.
EDM1—”(player-popup)Connor McDavid”:/players/connor-mcdavid-31733 is going to get +10% ownership every night for the rest of the year. This version of EDM1 (McDavid, Lucic, Caggiula) owns a 67.32 CF60 which is always going to interest me. The top two lines for Columbus (especially Dubinsky’s line) give up a bunch of scoring chances and McDavid and co. should see plenty of chances tonight.
CAR2—Rask, Skinner and Grant all play together on the second PP unit. CAR2 won’t be crazy low-owned but they should be chalk and won’t be. The top three lines for the Canucks all have well under 50CF%. I’m very interested.
TOR2—This line has been making me money all year. They own a 64.97CF60 and over 17 scoring chances per 60 minutes which are both great numbers. In a wide-open game, Bozak/Marner/Van Riemsdyk should continue to see plenty of chances.
MIN1—I love this line with Pominville on it. He owns an iCorsiF60 of almost 16, better than Sindey Crosby, Joe Pavelski and Taylor Hall. Add in Parise and Staal and this is a dynamite line. Granted the matchup isn’t ideal against a solid defensive team in the Panthers, but this is going to be a low-owned line with upside for 2-3 goals. They also all get PP minutes which is huge.
CLB2—Again, I always want to look to the less-owned side of a high vegas total game to see if people are ignoring something. I think Dubinsky/Atkinson/Jenner will go overlooked. Many will look at McDavid in this game (and rightfully so), but this line plays at a high pace (61CF60) and have one of the best point-getters in the league in Cam Atkinson (27 points, 26 games). I’ll be overweight on this line as they face Cam Talbot and his 76.25% high danger save percentage (league average around 80%).
EDM2—My favorite under-the-radar option of the night. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle and Patrick Maroon own an 80CF60 (!) and 12.75 SCF60. Columbus doesn’t play great defense and allows 5.2 high danger scoring chances per game. The other great part about this line is that they’ll play together the whole game (all on PP2).
Defensemen—You don’t need me to tell you Brent Burns is a good play, so here are a few cheaper guys in good matchups that may go overlooked.
“(player-popup)Ryan McDonagh”:/players/ryan-mcdonagh-14343—One of the best real-life defensemen in the league, plays on PP1 and Chicago is horrible on the penalty kill (72.7). Need I say more?
“(player-popup)Zach Werenski”:/players/zachary-werenski-18975—Averaging 3.5 SOG the last four games, gets first unit power play minutes, and in a game where there should be a ton of shots, he should block a couple.
“(player-popup)Oscar Klefbom”:/players/oscar-klefbom-17401—Same game, other side. Klefbom has points in three straight games and gets to play on a talented second power play unit with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle. I’m in.
“(player-popup)Alec Martinez”:/players/alec-martinez-14380—Will log 20-22 minutes, play on PP2 against a 74.2% Buffalo penalty kill.
“(player-popup)Devan Dubnyk”:/players/devan-dubnyk-14291—One could make a case that he has been the best goalie in the league this year. He leads the league in GAA (1.63), save percentage (9.46) and shutouts (4) and yet he never sees big ownership. Tonight is a very winnable game for the Wild, but Dubnyk will also see his fair share of shots as the Panthers are 7th in the league in SOG/gm. Dubnyk being only a -145 favorite shouldn’t scare you away.
“(player-popup)Peter Budaj”:/players/peter-budaj-16775—More of a price play than anything. He’s a small road favorite, but I think he gets a bunch of goal support and is able to cruise to an easy victory. When looking at the depth of the LA lines, they should have their way with the bottom three lines for Buffalo. Budaj owns a solid 82.35% high dangers save percentage.
That’s all for today! Hope one of the 12 of you that read this take down a GPP :)