DFS Golf weird slant on strategy

I have been a BDH (broken down horseplayer) long before daily fantasy sports existed. I liked handicapping and betting on the horses and sometimes did really well. I cant help thinking about the similarities between successful DFS golf and successful horseplay.

1) predicting what a live individual or animal will do? always have intangibles
(personal issues/physical illness)
2) a primary basis of determination is past performances.
(Daily racing form vs various stats and tournament results)
3) a primary basis of determination is recent form.
(thourographs or your eyeball opinion)
4) the course is not always the same and allowances have to be made for several factors
golf -different courses every week Horses – Santa Anita vs Belmont or churchill downs
golf – type of grass Horses – grass or dirt/synthetic
golf – Long par 4s or short par 5’s Horses – 5 furloungs or 1 mile and 1/4

In Horses its easier to handicap what you think will happen in a field of 10. as opposed to golfs field of 150. But the larger the field the easier it is to toss out pretenders.

I make allowances on this by forgetting specific statistics and use generality as primary concern to sort out contenders and non contenders. In horses, excluding entries is as important as picking the right entry.

In horses after the first go around I have 2 or 6 out of 10 remaining. In Golf I have about 25 to 40 remaining.

I always think its important to do a review of this again because how you handicap the 1st on the list isnt always the same as the middle or the end. At this point I look at specific data and try to see distiguishing features to seperate my chosen few. and I assign a mostly arbitrary number to each entrant.

In horses, they all have a chance to win. a clipped heal or terrible break from the gate, can kill a favorites chances as much as Phil Mickelson’s slice into the woods can mess with his ability to make the cut.

In creating a lineup, Horses you must pick the winner and subsequent finishers in order. That can be done in a variety of ways. You can key a horse, box a few, do a partial wheel, or one of my favorites a partial wheel box. In golf you pick 6 and hope they finish 1-6 but the order doesnt matter. This is were max lineups really feel like horses to me. im trying to key or stack lineups.

I love trifecta’s and superfectas. my yahoo and twitter address is tencentsuperfecta. I am always trying to maximize potential profit by betting small amount for largest gain. This sounds similiar for DFS Gpp’s. If your not in top 5 your not getting maximum return. Because of the desire to bet little and win big. I like Gpp’s and am a big fan of max entry (or at least many entries)

In golf always betting on the chalk is probably about the same as horses. In horses a lifetime of data shows favorites win about 1/3 of the time. with that said it behoves you to look closer at the other contenders and the longshots.

In horse racing my handicaping, results in a betting strategy. it is different and semi unique to each race. In DFS creating the lineups should be the same. different stacks depending on your handicapping analysis.

In horse racing, that “wheel all” is a favorite of mine for any position of tri or super. In DFS golf the last lineup spots on a max entry attempt has a feel of wheel all because i like to use every salary cap option remaining with my handicapped picks.

Unfortunately in horses and DFS your bankroll might not allow for a full “wheel all” but some selected adjustments are made. I think tossing a lineup is easier than adding one on a cvs datasheet.

Like horses, in DFS you compete with other betters. use the chalks and payout is lower. Pick a longshot (say a 6000 guy in DK) and if they run well payout increases.

Now for the trollers, im sure your right about whatever, language/idea, whats wrong with this theory. but open your thinking to general circumstances, dont think in terms of absolute definitions of words used.

Happy DFS racing

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Comments

  • BigToneDaBoss

    Love it

  • BIF

    @BigToneDaBoss said...

    Love it

    Like the horse racing comparison despite not being a fan of horses

    I often find myself making 10-20 lineups well in advance then I add another 10-20 if the GPP is not full and just change 1 player on each my existing lineups so that approach is simliar to the horse race betting analogy.

  • JimKronlund

    So what you are telling me is that I will suck at horse racing as well.

  • timusbr

    @JimKronlund said...

    So what you are telling me is that I will suck at horse racing as well.

    a quick story… I grew up pretty much next to Arlington Park racetrack. Was always there when I was 13/14 years old and later. I was almost a junkie but got a lot of life experiences. I like data analysis and the daily racing form is the epitome of data. One day I took my dad to lunch at the clubhouse for some racing and time together. I had my “form” and we ate and played the horses together. Now my dad doesnt mind gambling but horses sportsbook was not his thing. He is a casino guy. I asked him after he won a race. Dad I got this paper and studied it all night, My horse finished 6th, you got the winner. How did you do that???? He replied in all seriousness, I picked the one with the longer tail..

    Now I keep thinking, should I pick the guy in golf with the mustache??

    It all works one way or the other, Nobody is that clairvoyant to get it right.

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