Digging the Long Ball
They say chicks dig the long ball. Well I am digging it too this week for the Wells Fargo Championship. My focus will be driving distance, greens in regulation, birdies, with both recent and long term form stats.
I am 3 out of 4 in my last PGA DFS entries. Now I admit it I have never watched Golf. This is the first time I have been interested in it. Golf is boring and slow with no incentives. But with my bank roll on the line I am watching. Not to sweat my line-ups but to get a feel for the players and the game.
I have picked the winner every time I have entered. There is a lot to learn when you are a newbie to this sport. Fortunately there are a lot of resources available to help you cash in. I rely more on stats, player projections, and lineup optimizers. Mostly all “science” and no “art” when picking my teams.
Quail Hollow = Long Ball Play
Quail Hollow Country Club is a Par 72 course that stretches over 7,400 yards. It has four par fives and four par threes. This could be a bombers paradise and I am targeting the bombers. With holes called the Green Mile I want the long ball.
I am a limited entry player and I will build 6 lineups. I am entering the $275k Birdie and the $15k Short Game. I usually bypass the cash games for PGA. I set aside a certain amount for PGA. I have separate bankrolls for PGA, NBA, MLB, NAS, and NFL. I also have a bank roll for qualifiers.
I start my research by checking out First Look. I want to know which players have made the cut 80% to100% of the time on the current course.
This week the 3 players were:
1. Phil Mickleson
2. Geoff Ogilvy
3. Hunter Mahan
I threw those three players into my player model. Then I looked for the players with the longest driving distances of 300 yards or more. I checked long term and recent form. I then went with the players with the best greens in regulation both recent and long term. Then I targeted players with the best birdie average. I put all of this in my model.
I then check RotoGrinders, Fantasy Labs, RotoWire, DFSR, and RotoWorld to see what the experts are saying. I want to see what the chalk plays are going to be. Who are the experts fading and recommending.
I use the optimizers on Wire, Grinders, and Labs to see what players will pop up. I plug thoserecommendations into another model. Optimizers help me see players I am missing. I am hoping to find some sleepers in Ogilvy, Glover, Simpson, and Kim. I figure these guys would be low owned. This is what my player model spit out for me:
Building My Log Ball Lineups
Now the key is to get these players in the right combination. Making sure all of them make the cut. I have cashed with 5/6 and even 4/6. But my main goal is all of my picks making the cut. Here is one lineup I generated using my player models:
With golf I do leave some money on the table. About $1000 to $4000 off the salary cap. I faded Reed, Fowler, Mickelson, Day, and Casey. I don’t think these are necessary plays this week. Golf is a sport where there are no “Must Plays”. This is why I love golf.
The weather should be better this week. Weather was a major factor and a lot of my guys didn’t finish. I have seen the course in Charlotte. It’s going to be tough for all the players to handle the . My Bankroll should grow come Sunday evening.