Digging the Mines: Finding CBB value (Friday 3/13/2015 - Early and Late games) - FanDuel picks
I’m back searching for more value deep in the FanDuel slate, with players priced at $6000 and under who shouldn’t be highly owned and could far exceed value. This afternoon slate is a bit shallow, but the evening slate looks good. Let’s dig.
Ryan Manuel ($5300), SMU – A forgotten member of the Mustangs has been pretty productive the past month. He’s cracked 20 FP’s in 4 of 6 games and gets a bad East Carolina team today. I can’t imagine he’ll be more than 10% owned, so take a look if you want to go against the grain.
Jalyn Patterson ($5400), LSU – On the other hand, EVERYBODY will be on Patterson this afternoon. He’s still cheap and as the main ball handler in today’s highest over/under, he has 6x potential. He has a couple of 30+ FP games in his last four, including against today’s opponent, Auburn. I love the match-up and am in on a number of players in this game.
Shep Garner ($5400) and Geno Thorpe ($5600), Penn State – I’ve been playing both of these guys a lot over the past month, but of course, I’ve chosen the wrong one each time. Garner usually plays a bit more, and gets more shots up than Thorpe, but both have 25-30 FP upside today in a game that has a chance to be played in the 70’s.
Sterling Brown ($5600), SMU – Brown is probably the better play between him and Manuel, but is slightly pricier. He’s cracked 20 in 5 of 8 and plays 35+ minutes a night without Keith Frazier around. Brown can fill up the stat sheet in a number of categories, and while he’s not a great scorer, he can still hit value against a bad ECU team.
Quenton DeCosey ($5800), Temple – I expect him to be the highest owned player on this list. He’s turned it on finally, averaging 27 FP’s over his past three games. I think we can expect a 20 point baseline today, with a 30+ upside.
Aubrey Dawkins ($5800), Michigan – He and the rest of the Wolverines are starting to find their way late in the season. He’s pumping in 23.3 ppg over his past 3 and is on fire from deep. He split minutes with Kameron Chatman more than you’d like yesterday (24 to 19), but on a team that plays 6 guys, it’s not a huge concern. My only concern, and it’s a big one, is that Michigan and Wisconsin are 2 of the 10 slowest paced teams in America this season. Let’s hope offensive efficiency wins out over pace.
Trey Lyles ($5400), Kentucky – Lyles has been getting more and more playing time as Kentucky’s small forward with Alex Poythress long gone. He’s still seeing only about 20-25 minutes a game for the deep Cats, but has begun ramping up his production (20+ FP’s in 3 of 4). I’m not sure he has more than 25 FP upside, but on a small slate and a low price, it’s hard to pass on Lyles today.
Trashon Burrell ($5500), Memphis – Trashcan is one of DFS’s most frustrating players. We’ve seen his upside with numerous 30+ FP games on the season, but he’s been PASTNERED!! far too often. There’s no guarantee he’ll get 20 minutes, let alone the 34+ he’s seen the past three. His price is hard to pass up when combined with his upside. Temple is a top ten defensive team, but the tempo will be above average in this game. If Burrell gets the minutes, he should produce. Key words: IF and SHOULD.
Others: Cannen Cunningham ($5100), SMU; Max Bielfeldt ($5300), Michigan; Ross Travis ($5700), Penn State; Calvin Godfrey ($5500), Memphis
Isaac Hamilton ($5900), UCLA – This would be a pick where you are absolutely chasing points, but it’s hard to overlook a pair of 43 FP games in his past four. If you think he can approach that against Arizona, more power to you, but I’m avoiding him. Just keep in mind the upside, however.
London Perrantes ($5800), Virginia – Despite the slow, methodical pace at which Virginia plays, Perrantes continues to put up points. He’s scored 21 or more FP’s in five of six, with the only outlier being the game he broke his nose and was concussed. You can probably pencil him in for 8 or so points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists. He’ll throw in a couple of steals and you’re looking at value right there. If he can get hot from deep, he has 30 point upside.
JJ Frazier ($5000), Georgia – Frazier faded miserably in February after a strong run in January, but may be picking it up again. He’s put up 25+ FP’s in two of his last three and gets a mediocre South Carolina team playing their third game in as many days. For such a cheap price, this is a guy that’s easy to use. I think he’s almost a lock for 3x value at the minimum, and is one of the few low priced guys with 30 FP upside.
Farad Cobb ($5400), Cincinnati – I hate using and/or recommending Cincy guys. They play so slow and muddy up the game enough to make watching unenjoyable. They get UConn today, another slower paced team, and this has the look of another ugly game. Cobb has started putting it together, scoring 23+ FP’s in 3 of 4 games since joining the starting lineup. I’d probably rather go with Troy Caupain ($5900), who’s scored 30 FP’s in both match-ups with UConn this year.
Kenny Chery ($6000), Baylor – Chery has mostly disappointed this year, but has played well against Kansas. In two games, he’s averaged 21 ppg, two of his more productive games on the season. I don’t love him, but I could see him elevating his game for the Jayhawks again.
Landen Lucas ($5600), Kansas – Lucas has been the biggest beneficiary of the Perry Ellis injury. Bill Self admitted that Ellis is not 100% and is a game-time decision tonight. Luckily, it’s a 7pm game, so we’ll know ahead of time whether Lucas is an okay option or a very good one. Even if Ellis plays, I can’t see him playing his normal minutes and usage rate. Lucas has been hot and has earned more playing time. In the end, I expect Self to exercise further caution and either hold Ellis out or use him sparingly. Watch Twitter for news.
JayVaughn Pinkston ($5600), Villanova – Another kid who has disappointed a bit this year, Pinkston has had some fine moments of late. He’s hit or miss though, scoring 27+ FP’s in 3 of 6, but under 15 in those other three. He did have his best game of Big East play last time out against Providence, so I like the potential for 5-6x value tonight, though his floor is much lower than most.
Michael Carrera ($5400), South Carolina – Four straight 20+ FP games and still a very affordable price? Yep, sign me up. Love the matchup, but love his developing consistency even more.
Dustin Hogue ($5300), Iowa State – There is nothing to really indicate that Hogue is ready for a return to big fantasy performances. He’s been mostly underwhelming all season, but I have a gut feeling about him tonight. He was a revelation during postseason play last year, and I like kids who have succeeded in big spots before on days like this. I don’t expect anybody to actually read this and think of playing him, but if there is anyone at the under $5500 price point that could have an unexpected big game, I like Hogue has a strong possibility.
I don’t see a ton of value in tonight’s slate, but some of you may have others in mind. Good luck everyone!