Digging the Mines: Finding CBB value (Friday 3/20/2015 - NCAA Tournament Day 2) - FanDuel picks

We have finally reached the two best days of the college hoops season, and maybe in all of sports. FanDuel has another huge 14-game, all-day slate with all of today’s action (not including play-in game winners). I’m back to try to find more value in the sub-$6000 groups, looking for the guys to far exceed value and win you some cash. Let’s dig.

GUARD

Jordan Barham ($6000) and Brian Sullivan ($5900), Davidson – In what should be one of the higher scoring games of the day, I like a couple of Davidson’s guards. Barham is the team’s leading rebounder and Sullivan one of the better 3-point shooters. With a 4-guard lineup, I expect the Wildcats to work the perimeter and launch a lot of threes. Barham has scored 20+ FP’s in 9 of his last 10, with five 30 point games in there. I think both have a great shot at 5x.

Daxter Miles Jr ($5700), West Virginia – Even though Juwan Staten and Gary Browne seem poised to return from injuries, I still think Miles holds standalone value. This WVU/Buffalo game should be a track meet and has the highest over/under of the day. Both teams are top 25 in the nation in tempo, so expect this was to be a fun one. Neither team is particularly poor defensively, but I think Buffalo is going to struggle some with the WVU transition game. Miles has scored in double figures in 5 straight and if Staten/Browne are limited, expect to see him hit that again.

Lamonte Bearden ($5600), Buffalo – Speaking of Buffalo, the freshman, Bearden, has come on over the past few weeks. He has 20+ FP’s in five straight games and I expect Buffalo to really try to outgun WVU. While Bearden has a very slight frame, that shouldn’t be a huge issue against the smallish Mountaineer guards. Justin Moss and Shannon Evans will be the focus, but Bearden can certainly put some points on the board, too.

Jeremy Morgan ($4900), Northern Iowa – I’m guessing I’m not the only one who hasn’t seen UNI play more than a game or two all season. For a team that spent time in the top 10, that seems rare, but here we are. The Panthers have SEVEN players who averaged between 5 and 8 points to complement star forward, Seth Tuttle. This is somewhat of a guess, but Morgan has seen his playing time and production increase of late. There aren’t many players in the $5000 neighborhood that can hit 4-5x value in my opinion, but Morgan seems like one of them

A.J. Jacobson ($5600), North Dakota State – Jacobson is NDSU’s second leading scorer, but will be facing a tough test in the rested Zags. Having to face a strong frontline, I expect NDSU to work the perimeter more than usual. The freshman wing makes 40% of his 3’s and has the size and skills to put up big numbers today. He’s scored 20+ FP’s in 9 of his last 11 games. NDSU will need to find some scoring against the extremely efficient Gonzaga offense.

Darien Walker ($5700), Valparaiso – Another second leading scorer on a mid-major team that will need to find some scoring to keep up with their opponent. Up until the Mid-Con Championship game, Walker had scored 23+ FP’s in five straight. He’s going to take double digit shots and is well-built to withstand the defense of Dez Wells and Melo Trimble. He’s also shot very well from deep over the second half of the season.

Wayne Selden Jr ($5000), Kansas – Much like his namesake, Wayne Blackshear, Selden has been mostly a disappointment at the college level. For the most part, he has been an underwhelming option all season, but has put up back-to-back 20 point games. He’s just as like to put up 5 as he is 20, but for the price, it might be worth to see if everything is finally clicking for him.

Bronson Koenig ($5300), Wisconsin – Koenig missed practice time earlier in the week due to an illness, but should be ready to go today. With Traevon Jackson still out, Koenig will play as much as necessary. If this game is remotely close, he’ll see 35+ minutes. I expect this to be a blowout, which bodes well for Koenig’s production. He should rack up more assists than usual and is a great 3-point shooter. Since the Badgers only go 6 deep, expect enough opportunities and playing time against an overmatched opponent.

Tekele Cotton ($5900), Wichita State – Against an Indiana team that doesn’t play defense, in a tempo up game, Cotton has a great shot at a huge game. Look for Indiana to really push the pace in this one, and for the experience of the Shockers to come through. Cotton will play 35 minutes and contribute in all categories, but doesn’t have a huge ceiling. He’s a consistent play more than an upside play.

FORWARD

Tshilidzi Nephawe ($5900), New Mexico State – Nephawe has had some huge games over the past few weeks, topping 30 FP’s in 3 of his last 4 games. The match-up against Kansas’ big frontline will be tough for the South African, but if he can hit the glass, he’ll have a great opportunity to approach 30 FP’s once again.

Jonathan Holton ($4800), West Virginia – The athletic forward has had a really up and down season, with his minutes constantly fluctuating. His playing time seems to have stabilized as he’s seen 24+ minutes in each of his last five games. Against an undersized Buffalo, this could be a game this is tailor made for his skill set. It’s not guaranteed, but I think he’ll get his 25+ minutes and has a great chance to produce solid scoring and rebounding numbers. For his cheap price, the risk is worth it.

Ray Sanders ($5900), Albany – There really aren’t a ton of forwards with value that stands out. Sanders has topped 20 FP’s in 7 of his last 10. In a major tempo up game for Albany, somebody’s going to have to score and rebound. Sanders has consistently been a solid performer for them all season.

Remi Barry ($5800), New Mexico State – If there’s any real value at forward, it might have to be with New Mexico State. Berry is coming off perhaps his best game of the season and has scored 20+ FP’s in 6 of his last 8. He plays a ton of minutes and is capable of having a big game.

Darius Carter ($5600), Wichita State – The Shockers’ third leading scorer has a great match-up against Indiana. He doesn’t play as much as Cotton, but is probably a bit more productive as the team’s leading rebounder. I expect Wichita State to score more than usual, so production across the team should increase as such.

Again, I don’t like the value options at forward today….

THURSDAY’S RESULTS
Guard
Kevin Ware ($5400), Georgia State – 14.9 FP’s
Siyani Chambers ($5900), Harvard – 22.1 FP’s
Josh Hart ($5900), Villanova – 24.6 FP’s
Bryce Scott ($5400), Lafayette – 5 FP’s
Spencer Collins ($5600), Wofford – 26.8 FP’s
Sterling Brown ($5800), SMU – 16.1 FP’s
Gabe York ($5100), Arizona – 2.4 FP’s
Ralston Turner ($5800), North Carolina State – 15.3 FP’s

Forward
Beejay Anya ($4500), North Carolina State – 14.4 FP’s
Bogdan Bliznyuk ($4500), Eastern Washington – 21.2 FP’s
Tosin Mehinti ($4600), UAB – 13.7 FP’s
Mo Alie-Cox ($5700), VCU – 18.4 FP’s
Malcolm Riley ($5600), Texas Southern – 16.8 FP’s
Lee Skinner ($6000), Wofford – 10.1 FP’s
Markus Crider ($5900), Georgia State – 21.5 FP’s

About the Author

  • VinnyT87

    You the man

  • VinnyT87

    Also you didn’t mention any Dukies in there, there should be points to go round I imagine

  • bbjay20

    I don’t have the Duke prices…FD hasn’t posted anything w/games involving teams that won play-in games yet. I assume they’ll do so once the first set of games get under way.

    Either way, I’d be all over Grayson Allen, assuming he’s in the 5’s. Amile Jefferson is a possibility too. Going 8 deep in a probable blowout should lead to some nice bench production.

  • VinnyT87

    Bottom 6 Adjusted D KenPom Rankings with their respective Adj Tempo rankings. Not a lot of high tempo games today though. If Belmont can light it up and get up early on UVa there could be some plays to be had there. Look for Taylor Barnette to exact vengeance upon his old school. Speaking of UVa transfers, Paul Jesperson might be the X factor for Northern Iowa today as well.

    149. Albany 101.5 61.2 (320th)
    158. Coastal Carolina 64.4 (190th)
    169. Robert Morris 102.4 65.7 (127th)
    180. Davidson 103.1 67 (69th
    220. Indiana 104.9 66.6 (84th)
    250. Belmont 106.2 67.1 (67th)

  • bbjay20

    I think UB/WV, Iowa/Davidson, Ind/Wichita and Duke/Rob Mo to be the higher tempo games today. I really like Davidson/Iowa to put up points today.

    I don’t care for anybody in the Belmont/UVA game. Maybe Perrantes, but I can’t recommend anybody on Belmont. They can score, but I’m not sure about it against UVA’s D. Maybe Chamberlain because he gets to the FT line, rebounds and picks up a lot of assists or Bradshaw who could really get hot.

  • bertminatti

    Great blog! Very helpful as I scramble to put my survivor teams together.

  • bbjay20

    Thanks! Go Sabres…keep losing!

  • bbjay20

    Grayson Allen at $5000
    Dyshawn Pierre at $6300
    Scoochie/Pryor/Pollard/Reed/Minnie all at $4500
    Ben Bentil at $6100, playing a ton of minutes is a double-double threat
    Jordan Siebert $5700

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