Digging the Mines: Finding CBB value (Wednesday 3/18/2015 - NIT and 2 Play-in games) - FanDuel picks
I’m back searching for more value deep in the FanDuel slate, with players priced at $6000 and under who shouldn’t be highly owned and could far exceed value. This looks like a tough slate with not a ton of value that stands out. These are mostly NIT games with the 2 play-in games thrown in, unlike yesterday’s NIT only slate. Let’s dig.
Kavon Stewart ($5700), Robert Morris – Coming off a fine performance in the NEC Tournament, Stewart looks to continue his hot play against North Florida. The point guard is not much of a scorer, but has stepped up his production of late. In a tempo up game for Rob Mo, I like Stewart to approach or exceed value.
Tra Holder ($5700), Arizona State – I feel like I put Holder in here every time the Sun Devils play. His upside is enough to make him a good play yet again. Even though ASU has to travel cross country to face UConn, Holder has 5x-6x upside tonight. His only real downside is his floor, which is quite low compared to many other players tonight. I wouldn’t be shocked if he put up 11 points, and I also wouldn’t be surprised if he went for over 30.
John Gillon ($3000), Colorado State – FanDuel throwing out gifts tonight. Gillon is CSU’s top guard reserve and routinely plays 20-25 minutes a night. Don’t expect much more than 12-16 FP’s out of him, but that’s still great value and allows you to pay up elsewhere. Assuming everybody catches his price in the player pool, he should be highly owned, but is more than worth going with the flow tonight.
Aaron Wheeler ($5500), Charleston Southern – Wheeler has had some huge games over the past month and a half and plays huge minutes indicating his immense upside for a big night. My biggest concern is the opponent, Old Dominion, who plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Wheeler can contribute in numerous categories, so even if he doesn’t score a lot, he has a great shot at 25+ FP’s tonight.
George Marshall ($4500), South Dakota State – Another gift from the FanDuel gods. The Wisconsin transfer has scored 20+ FP’s in 9 of his last 10 games, and pretty much exceeds that mark every game. He takes almost 11 shots per game and is an excellent 3-point shooter. This should be one of the more up tempo games of the night, and Marshall is almost a guarantee to hit value, based on his season performance.
Elijah Minnie ($5900), Robert Morris – Minnie has scored 24+ FP’s in four of five games and gets a mediocre defensive team in North Florida in tonight’s first play-in game. This will also be a tempo up game for the Colonials. His price is sufficient and he’s looking like a nice 4x or more option tonight.
Zach Thomas ($5900), Bucknell – Thomas has cracked 20 FP’s in 6 of his last 9 and gets in-state rival Temple in what should be a slight tempo up game for Bucknell. Temple is a fine defensive team, so it won’t be easy, but Thomas has seen his playing time and production increase as the season progressed. In a barren group for value, Thomas is one of the better options.
Alonzo Nelson-Odoba ($5300), Richmond – Nelson-Odoba missed most of the second half the conference season with a concussion, but returned for Richmond’s loss to VCU in the A-10 Tournament. I have no idea how much he’ll play (he saw just 11 minutes against VCU), but he was playing 25-30 minutes a night, prior to his concussion, and was routinely cracking 20 FP’s. If you can somehow find out about his playing time tonight, good luck.
Rodney Purvis ($5400), UConn – Purvis has become a very good scoring option for UConn, but doesn’t at much in the other categories. He doesn’t hit value very often, but might have a better chance tonight than normal if Ryan Boatright doesn’t play. He’s one of the few sub-$6000 forwards that could go for 25-30, in my opinion.
Matthew Fisher-Davis ($4500), Vanderbilt – Fisher-Davis sees roughly 30-35 minutes per night and has a good shot at far exceeding value tonight. He seems to go for 20+ FP’s every other game, and if that trend holds, he’s in line for 5-6x value tonight. With tonight’s barren wasteland of value available, this could be a nice sleeper.
I’m building rosters around Marshall and Gillon and loading up on higher priced forwards tonight. There are enough flyers on the board that you can go another direction and still hit the money. Good Luck!
Rayshawn Simmons ($5800), Central Michigan – 28.9 FP’s
Cameron Wright ($5800), Pitt – 14.8 FP’s
Jared Terrell ($4500), Rhode Island – 22.1 FP’s
Kelvin Amayo ($5100), Iona – 26.1 FP’s
Kenneth Smith ($4500), Louisiana Tech – 34.1 FP’s
Jimmie Taylor ($5500), Alabama – 14.8 FP’s
Erik McCree ($5400), Louisiana Tech – 3.6 FP’s
Cedrick Lang ($6000), UTEP – 10.3 FP’s
Jonathan Fairell ($5300), Murray State – 21.5 FP’s
Reid Travis ($4500), Stanford – 25.0 FP’s
Rosco Allen ($4500), Stanford – 20.8 FP’s