Doosan Bears Should Go Low-Owned on Tuesday Morning Slate
Not my normal title format, but no way anyone clicks on “The Argument for a Doosan Stack.” I had to give you the reason to click in the title without teasing anything. I had to basically put the thesis statement as the title. That we should absolutely lock up the notion that we don’t play Doosan and throw away the key for the night because they should garnish sub-double digit ownership. Under which case, they are a must-play versus a maybe-HR-prone pitcher with winds blowing out around 13 miles per hour to rightfield.
Goes without saying that Doosan is one of the top offenses in the KBO, if not the number-one. Through 11 games, they lead The O in runs per game (7.45), total bases (223), and OPS (.915), while sitting in second with 17 HR only to the NC Dinos’ 18. But we can seldom play them with their 30-40-sometimes-50% ownership levels.
The ownership levels are worthy when we look at those team stats and see the concentration of the run production.
Since 2019, Jose Miguel Fernandez ranks first in average (.355), second in OBP (.418), and fifth in wOBA (.418). The only knock on him is that he lacks elite power, but he’s like what Cubs fans wanted Mark Grace to be; he’s kind of John Olerud-y in this league. 15-20 HRs annually with a high average and a lot of doubles. The RBI come with the baserunners in front of him.
Over the same span, Jae-il Oh ranked top-20 in average (.304), top-ten in SLG% (.516), and just outside of the top-ten in wOBA (.401).
Doosan has two all-pro KBO stars to stack and, then, we move onto the others:
Jae-hwan Kim, who is a bit overpriced at $17 on FanDuel, has a .454 SLG% and a .370 wOBA since 2019. Kun-woo Park is $4 cheaper with a .313/.391/.459 slash and a .389 wOBA in the leadoff spot. And I don’t think you have to go deeper than that, which is the beauty of low-owned stacks. You don’t always have to hold your nose with a bottom of the order wraparound stack.
And Doosan will be low-owned.
For one, Doosan is expensive. FanDuel is trying to push their ownership down with pricing, but every ownership projection I trust has them accumulation under 10% of ownership.
And it makes sense. Sure, Doosan is in a game with 13 mph winds, but Hanwha-KT also has 13 mph winds blowing out. Hanwha is super cheap and KT is just sexier to stack. NC Dinos in the same game as Doosan, cheaper and sexier to stack with more power. LG-Samsung has wind all over the place, but out to rightfield is great for the cheaper, sexier lefties.
Wind can jumble up an entire slate. Korea is (duh) smaller than the United States, so the weather effects are shared across almost every game. We are going to be tempted by three games on this slate because of wind blowing out. This is a great opportunity to not squander.
The other reason why Doosan is going lower owned than the other stacks is simple: pitchers with Triple-A and MLB experience are (generally correctly) highly rated. The thought is probably that the general public will steer away from stacking against an American in Mike Wright over one of the pitch-to-contact Koreans. Wright has a 2.45 ERA and 9.0 K/9 through 11.0 IP in Korea. This is scary to DFS players, regardless of the small sample.
But Wright is not very good.
Through 447.2 IP in Triple-A, Wright had 4.30 RA/9 and only 6.9 K/9. He only had 0.6 HR/9 in Triple-A, but 1.5 in 258.0 MLB innings. Also, these Korean numbers are a smokescreen, according to his 4.95. He’s a time bomb waiting to blow up. A landmine. A drunk father… OK, sorry, I got carried away.
The touts are forgetting about Doosan on this slate and that is a big mistake. A mistake on which we should capitalize.