DraftKings Tennis DFS Strategy: Tuesday July 23rd
Kiki Bertens $11,000 – Highest priced player on the slate
This play may seem safe, but nothing is ever safe with Bertens. There are other high priced players I like but based on odds and he price, Bertens is the best of the expensive plays in my mind. Bertens is currently a -2400 favorite and Kuzmova who is second behind Bertens is currently a -650 favorite. Bertens opponent Gorgodze is a mostly unknown ITF player. Gorgodze has had some success on the ITF circuit in the past, but this year other than a couple of semi-final loses she has not done much. Going through her list of opponents in 2019 it appears she falls to anyone who has WTA experience or is just a better overall player than she is. With Gorgodze not having the WTA experience it is hard to find statistical data on her, thus I will focus on what I like from Bertens.
Bertens has a big serve for the women’s game. Bertens is currently second on tour in aces and fourth in ace percentage (9.2%). We should likely be getting the ace bonus in this match from Bertens. Bertens is also fourth in first serve points won at 72.3%, this again has a lot to do with the aces that she racks up. Bertens has an impressive hold percentage of 76.9%, good for sixth on the WTA. These serve statistics are all well and good and really expected out of Bertens but he return game is great as well. Bertens see’s alot of balls in play, she is rarely ever aced against (2% ace against rate) and has a break rate of 35.9%. While there are certainly other players priced close to Bertens I like, I will have a lot of exposure to Bertens in what I anticipate an 80+ point performance from her.
Prediction: 6-1, 6-1 Bertens
Frederico Delbonis $8,700 – 10th highest priced player on the slate
Delbonis comes into this match as a -200 favorite and a head to head record of 3-0 against Cecchinato, all three of those wins also coming on clay. The mid-range is just about filled with toss-ups for this slate so I thought going to the upper mid-range would be wise with this pick. On clay Delbonis holds serve at a rate of 75% and has a break point saved rate of 59%. His counterpart Cecchinato wins 24% of his return games on clay and converts 44% of his break points. These two seems fairly even looking at just the faucet of the game between these two.
Cecchinato on his serve wins 74% of his service games and wins just 53% of break points faced. Compare that to Delbonis who 27% of his return games and 42% of his break points converted. Again, these two have comparable numbers to one another. Neither player has an exceptional serve, the advantage goes to Delbonis, and both have above average return games, the advantage again goes to Delbonis. This play certainly is not a lock by any means but I feel confident enough in a straight set victory for Delbonis.
Prediction: 6-4, 7-5 Delbonis
Bargain Bin Play:
Nicolas Jarry $6,100 – 6th cheapest price player on the slate
Jarry comes in as a +190 underdog against Zverev and has a career 1-1 record against him. Both of those matches were also on clay and happened this year, both matches went the full three sets. This matchup is extremely close, closer than odds would dictate. Both players are similar as well. Both have bigger serves, Zverev 4th in aces and Jarry 12th, Zverev 8th in ace percentage (12.6%) and Jarry 12th (10.8%). Where the two differ on their serve is with their double fault rate. Of the top 50 players on the ATP Tour Zverev ranks 2nd at 6.5%. This is where Jarry could put himself into some break opportunities when Zverev rattles of a couple of double faults a game, which he has been known to do.
What worries me is how Jarry will look on his serve. Zverev is an above average returner, winning 40% of return points, ace against percentage is just 5.2, and his break percentage is 27.2%. If Jarry can accurately place his serves and limit the damage of Zverev’s return game, Jarry should have the advantage. What Jarry does on his serve that gives me hope is he has a 65.2 break points saved percentage, so if he does get into trouble, more than likely he could get himself out of it. With Zverev getting an average of 8.4 break chances per match Jarry will have to come through in the clutch to pull out the match.
Prediction: 7-6 (4), 6-7 (2), 6-3 Jarry