Edge of the Autojohn - MLB Opening Day Preview

It’s that time of year again! For those of you that followed my last post you know this edition of the Autojohn is a day late but not to be a dollar short. Truth be told, I got so wrapped up in HBO’s “Monsterverse” and the new Godzilla vs. Kong movie, (A+) that I couldn’t find the time to write about America’s Pastime. Well now Opening Day is upon us and I would like to be one of the first to tell you his pick’s for today’s slate. I know what you’re thinking, how can the MMA guy who could only pick 60% of the last PPV and whose last lineup he published literally set dumpsters across the country ablaze, tell me anything about Baseball? Simply put, I Baseball better than most. If you read my introductory blogpost then you know when it comes to my love of fantasy sports, baseball is actually where it all started for me. 162 game season with constant micromanaging needed to be successful, Baseball is in a sense, the original daily fantasy sport.

So for the purposes of today I wanted to run through my picks by position only. No sports betting dissections of each game although by the time you are done reading this post, you should have a few plays to get next month’s bills paid if you are into that sort of thing. Now let’s break it down!

Top 3 plays @ C

1. J.T. Realmuto $5,500
2. Kevin Plawecki $3,700
3. Tucker Barnhart $2,400

Stating the obvious, you can’t go wrong with Realmuto today as the Phillies are facing lefty Max Fried and Realmuto CRUSHES lefties. This is one of those pay up for the best or fade like the rest sort of scenarios where you might find better value at his price point across the slate today but you won’t find a better play at C. Plawecki however at his price point could be a huge value play so monitor his status on whether or not Christian Vasquez gets the start today or not. Vasquez was more recently hit in the face by a pitch and suffered an eye contusion and laceration so I find it hard to believe he will be available for Opening Day but never underestimate the will of the man behind the plate for any team. Make sure you know for sure but if Plawecki is starting today I would say he has the best chance to reach value. Lastly, for those of you that want to punt at catcher and hope for a HR I introduce to you, Tucker Barnhart. I’m a Reds fan so it’s easy to talk about the 2x Gold Glove catcher and I know that’s an award for defense which has no place in DFS, at his price point it’s hard to swing and miss on him, even against a tough Jack Flaherty going today for the Cardinals.

Top 3 plays @ 1B

1. Rhys Hoskins $5,000
2. Anthony Rizzo $4,800
3. C.J. Cron $3,800

These guys all have reverse splits that are to die for and 2 of the 3 are facing sup par pitching to boot. Rhys Hoskins absolutely SMASHES lefties and Max Fried is not a guy who I would ever consider to be unhittable. Rizzo has the same effect against most righties and Chad Kuhl is one of the best matchups on the board today, regardless of splits. C.J. Cron is going to be my value play because hitting HRs at Coors Field is easier than cheating on an open book test and Cron, while he doesn’t draw a favorable matchup against Kershaw, should benefit from it being the first game of the year and being able to get to Kershaw before he gets into a rhythm to start the season. Cron is our value play today.

Top 3 plays @ 2B

1. Hanser Alberto $4,400
2. Mike Moustakas $4,000
3. Kike Hernandez $3,000

Here are my top 3 plays at second base but to be honest if you are not starting Kike while the Red Sox new leadoff hitter is priced at 3k, you’re doing it wrong. Boston always has one of the best offenses on the field, no matter the ballpark and at a mere $3,000 Kike should get a lot of exposure today. Like Kim and Kanye types of exposure. Roster him. These other two plays are if you have found so much value that I can’t see and you got the extra salary in play. Go ahead but once again if you are not on Hernandez today, you’re doing it wrong.

Top 3 plays @ 3B

1. Manny Machado $5,700
2. Rafael Devers $5,400
3. Kris Bryant $5,000

This position and SS are pretty much going to be chalk talk for me today because we are finding value at other positions so we can spend money on big hitters in easy win games in my eyes. SD, Boston, and Chicago all look to be 1-0 after today and these guys are either batting third or clean-up in the heaviest lineups on the board today so make sure and get these guys into your lineups accordingly. Fade at your own dismay on these plays.

Top 3 plays @ SS

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. $5,700
2. Xander Bogaerts $5,400
3. Eugenio Suarez $4,000

Now at first glance based on my last read it is easy to look at Tatis Jr. and Bogaerts and as long as you have value in the OF, go ahead and spend big. But Slim Geno having eligibility at SS cannot go unnoticed even against a tough matchup. Flaherty is a true Ace to be sure but Suarez is also on his way to becoming an MVP candidate if the Reds can find any sort of consistency on offense like when Joey Votto won his back in 2010. I know I’m on the hype train a little bit but at his price point, I can expect him to see value today even against a tough matchup at Great American Smallpark.

1. Cody Bellinger $5,800
2. Ian Happ $4,400
3. J.D. Martinez $4,300
4. Joey Gallo $3,600
5. Joc Pederson $3,400
6. Nick Senzel $2,700

Here is plenty of value to make sure you can spend big elsewhere, minus Cody Bellinger. This guy at Coors Field could have a 2 HR game today and without him, good luck to you saving your lineups. The Dodgers are in a great place to get the win today and while I don’t want to heavy stack their offense because there are better matchups than Marquez, Bellinger is a must play in my eyes. That being said if you are more of a Realmuto guy or a Rizzo guy, go ahead and fade and see that there is always a lot of variance and value in the OF on most MLB slates.

Top Plays @ SP

1. Yu Darvish $10,400
2. Nathan Eovaldi $6,300

Guys, whether you are playing Draftkings or Fanduel, you should really only be looking at these 2 aces to start off your MLB DFS season. Darvish is a strikeout doyen and Eovaldi has absolutely OWNED the Baltimore Orioles as of late and there is no reason in my mind to think that trend won’t continue. Both of these pitchers should also be in line for the W today so that makes them even more valuable and there is no reason to fade either unless you are worried about Darvish and a fluke injury or the Orioles showing up big on an Opening Day where the club from Baltimore is expected to be in the hunt for the number one pick come next July.

There you have it, the Edge of the Autojohn is all there for you now go out, enjoy some Opening Day baseball and most importanly, WIN SOME MONEY!!!

Oh, and follow me on Twitter @Ashbrook423 for more sports.

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