Embracing Variance Hand Building GPP Lineups
I have been thinking about doing a blog for some time but struggled finding a topic. One element of DFS I do enjoy is coming up with what I hope are creative or semi creative GPP lineups in highly variant sports like NHL and MLB. And then it dawned on me. Why not do a blog about my process in creating these lineups tracking the results and try to learn along the way to hopefully become a better DFS player in these sports?
Coming into yesterday’s Showdown Slate I had entered a total of $26 and had a return of $21. So in the red by $5.
As for the Showdown Slate featuring the lone game on the schedule between the Vancouver Canucks and Ottawa Senators I decided to enter the NHL Small Wrister which had a max entry of five for $1. I won’t always do this but since this was a small Showdown Slate I will list out my five lineups with the captain spot being first. As a side note I did enter other contests (and will do so on most slates) but for this purpose of this blog am just tracking the primary contest I multi enter for the maximum amount permitted.
Tkachuk/Chabot/Boeser/Paul/Hughes – 51.2
Horvat/Paul/Anisimov/Miller/Tkachuk – 49.6
Boeser/Paul/Dadonov/Miller/Hughes – 34.4
Pettersson/Miller/Norris/Batherson/Horvat – 32.8
Tkachuk/DadonovChabot/Boeser/Batherson – 31.2
Yikes! Not one lineup hit the cash line which was 56.8.
For those of us that frequently play NHL DFS we know the unforeseen seems to happen quite frequently. Hence the title of this blog. And yesterday was a classic example. Third line Vancouver center Brandon Sutter had quite a day with a hat trick that helped propel Vancouver to a lopsided 7-1 win. Most of the damage in this game was done from the team’s bottom six lines
Here is the winning lineup:
Boeser/Tkachuk/Pearson/Sutter/Pettersson – 93.2
From my point above this user rostered four top six players. They had the one top six lineman, Pearson, who netted a goal and an assist. And of course Sutter on the bottom six who had the hat trick. Incidentally Sutter’s ownership in this contest was just 1%. So out of 297 users in the contest only 3 had Sutter including the top two finishers.
So that brings my total investment so far to $31 and my return still at $21. So now down $10.
And onto today’s mega slate featuring 13 games.
I will be max entering (10) the NHL Wrister. Each entry is $2 so that will obviously cost $20.
My strategy is going to be to select four stacks. My two favorites I will build out three stacks each. And then round it out with two stacks from the other two. I will then choose filler stacks for all the above.
Here are some primary stacks I am currently considering:
Buffalo 1 ( Eichel, Reinhart and Olofsson) – Not sure how Buffalo is going to skate this (Hall or Olofsson on the top line?) and it could get switched mid game anyway. But Olofsson does pair with Eichel and Reinhart on the top power play and is cheaper than Hall. Pairing all four maybe an option as well.
LA 1 (Kopitar, Kempe and Iafallo) – Should be very low owned and do correlate perfectly (always skate together and also on top power play).
WPG 1 (Connor, Scheifele and Wheeler) – I think more will focus on the other side of this game (McDavid and Draisaitl) but this line could just as easily go off at reduced ownership. This is not saying I will not have exposure to either McDavid or Draisaitl (undecided at the moment but if playing cash McDavid is probably a must).
Secondary stacks I am considering:
Vegas 2 (Marchessault, Karlsson and Smith) – Modestly priced and they have skated together all year (correlation is key)
Bos 2 (Ritchie, Krejci and Studnicka) – Though I think they could be popular it is a 13 game slate so hoping ownership is somewhat muted. Anyway they have been skating together and Ritchie as well as Krejci are currently seeing time on the top power play.
Good luck to all and lets hope for a profitable evening.