Embracing Variance Hand Building GPP Lineups

I have been thinking about doing a blog for some time but struggled finding a topic. One element of DFS I do enjoy is coming up with what I hope are creative or semi creative GPP lineups in highly variant sports like NHL and MLB. And then it dawned on me. Why not do a blog about my process in creating these lineups tracking the results and try to learn along the way to hopefully become a better DFS player in these sports?

This weekend I took off from max entering any contests on FanDuel (my initial intent was to max enter something on Friday but just did not quite have the timing right to get into a contest). Recently my wife and I welcomed twins to this world and we took them on a road trip to see their grandparents in Cleveland. But I was back at it on Monday max entering the 10 entry max NHL Wrister at $2 an entry for a total investment of $20. This is quickly becoming my favorite contest to start though hopefully I can build a bankroll and move on to some higher dollar contests as the season progresses.

Anyway before getting to yesterday’s results a quick summary of where I stand one week into this blog. To date I had max entered a total of $71 and returned $39 which puts me down $32.

Also some quick housekeeping on my strategy this week. Assuming we get the same NHL wrister contest, I am planning to pick my three favorite stacks and enter those three times each (mixing and matching other stacks along the way). For my final entry I will enter what I deem to be an “optimal” lineup. It may include a stack or a mini-stack or may be all one offs.

My three stacks that I selected yesterday to build around were VAN 1 (Petersson, Miller and Boeser), PITT 1 (Rust, Guentzel and Crosby) and TB 1 (Stamkos, Point and Palat).

And the results. Two lineups cashed but each were just above the min cash line. The TB 1 stack paired with Mon 2 (Suzuki, Drouin and Anderson) was my best lineup finishing with 155.4 FD points good for 195th place out of 1,785 entries. The return on this entry was $4.46.

The other lineup that cashed? Well it is the “optimal” lineup I tried to build. This lineup did have a mini-stack of Calg 2 (Lindholm and Tkachuk) as well as several one offs. The two best one offs were Kyle Connor (34.6 FD points) and David Pastrnak (35.2 FD points). Unfortunately my goalie, Braden Holtby, did not fare too well scoring only 3.2 FD points (allowed 6 goals in a loss to Montreal). This lineup scored 147.6 FD points good for 332nd place and a return of $4.

The winning lineup scored 213.5 FD points and featured a BOS 1 stack of Pastrnak and Marchand but left off Bergeron and instead had McAvoy on defense (correlated with PP1). This user also had the two Montreal defenseman together, Jeff Petry and Shea Weber, who scored a total of 53.8 FD points (Petry alone had a monster night totaling 40.5 FD points aided by his 2 goals). This user also had big nights from offs Yanni Gourde and Tyler Toffoli and got 24.8 FD points from his goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy in a winning effort.

So this brings my total investment to date at $91 with my return back at $47.46 putting me in the red by $43.54.

My initial look at this slate has me liking Calgary and St. Louis. I think the pairing of Tkachuk and Lindholm is just too cheap (may add Andersson on defense to make for a power play stack). And I may get a little creative with STL looking for some kind of power play stack amongst the likes of O’Reilly, Perron, Schwartz and Schenn. As for potential defenseman I like Dougie Hamilton at 5,400 and think that Seth Jones (4,500) is just too cheap. If playing cash I’d locking these two into my defense spots.

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