EPL & Bundesliga - Feb 20 - SCA Matrix

The SCA (Shot Creating Actions) Metric – It is one of the best determinants of how a team operates and succeeds. This metric allows you to identify the potential attacking opportunities of an individual team against their direct opponent. In other words, it signals which team will have the greater advantage on the field.

EPL Breakdown

With Liverpool solely focused on Champions League now, it might be more evident that their lineups going forward are going to be a bit water downed. I expect them to rest their star players, at least one or two, each EPL matchday and with that, the team becomes inherently weaker. Everton are running on tired legs anyways so expect a Liverpool squad that still has enough muscle to win the game. Regardless, it will be a wacky one and probably my least favorite game to target outside of the Liverpool wing-backs.

The first game of the slate is where SCA is popping. A huge six point SCA boost for both teams in question. That just tells us both team’s defensive posture is usually terrible. Neither team has a great attack, so as a result don’t expect either team to sit back and defend. It should be an open game with chances on both sides. McNeil and Pereira stand out to benefit greatly.

Lastly, you have a mediocre game at the end with Fulham being the more DFS friendly team. Regardless, it will all depend on lineups as you can find yourself with some cheaper full-backs in this game. Lookman should be a top play here as well.

Bundesliga Breakdown

Bayern is the powerhouse on the slate. With the first fixture going 5-0 there way, there is much to be expected again. However, Frankfurt has not suffered such a dramatic loss since; in fact, they haven’t had many losses since. Their much improved defensive stature leads to Bayern losing four points on the SCA metric scale. Also, with Champions League in their view, perhaps Bayern will slow things down a bit more this weekend. Regardless, they are everyone’s favorite pick this weekend.

Looking elsewhere though, you have some good options. Stuttgart leads every team with the highest expected SCA metric on the slate. And although Koln has the weakest metric, they still get a boost of three points which is always a favorable sign for increased production. Monchengladbach and Union Berlin are next in line with a boost of over two points. This is very intriguing and I think my line will be filled in with a few players from these two teams. That is where my head is at before we even get lineups.

Best of luck to all! Follow me on twitter @CarlitosWay_DFS.

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