EPL | The Diamond Standard | MatchDay 1 | Recipe for Success |
Hey everyone, welcome to The Diamond Standard.
My name is Rob Diamond, and I’m a 30-something DFS nobody from the maritimes in Canada. I’ve been playing DFS for around five years now, and while I mainly play soccer and hockey, who doesn’t love NFL? My focus isn’t only around picks, but strength of slates, or more importantly if there’s a reasonable path to profit on a particular slate and how to do it. Some weekends are better spent elsewhere.
The Diamond Standard is my blog outlining my slate expectations and array of picks. Ideally, this won’t be about the most popular play everyone knows about. My best friend says I’m really bad at gambling and that’s probably because I use my former player and coaching experience over my barely adequate poker background. If you are looking for straight analytics, look elsewhere. I don’t blame you, it’s not personal, that’s just not what I’m about.
I don’t support playing EPL on Fanduel, stick to DK.
Thanks for checking in, and make sure to follow me on twitter @radrobdiamond.
Good luck this weekend, it’s always a great one when you can change your life in an EPL GPP.
Lots of great options to be sneaky, even with a Spurs fade, but not enough to make a difference if Kane gets a PK. As the only superstar FWD name of the slate his ownership should be exploitable. This early in the season it’s hard to say if this is a cash or GPP lean slate, but there’s enough value from defence and midfield to make it cash viable. As I said though, being this early, I’d lean GPP.
$50k Season Kickoff, $20.2k Scissor Kick, 459 person $5 SE Double Up, 114 person SE $10 Double Up.
Two excellent GPP’s, couple larger SE double ups. Probably need around 8-10 entries in the 100+ max to have much of a hope, but that top-end makes it worthwhile. ALWAYS support SE dbl ups over 100 people, especially the $5.
Jordan Pickford, Everton
Burnley Aston Villa
Get used to this theme.
Everton is playing on last season’s lowest scoring field against a team that has, as of recent history, consistently started their seasons either breaking or coming close to the worst start for an EPL club, ever. Zaha has handed in a transfer request, again, but relevant to this conversation, it’s to Everton. Palace has long been a one person club, that one person being Zaha, and if he is not playing to even not playing well, expect Pickford to have one of the better CS options with already low risk. Tom Heaton is a shot stopping specialist, and if you have any hope at knocking in Kane, Siggy, and a Bournemouth stack, you’ll need to punt at keeper. This is a classic “FWD v. Keeper” kind of slate, don’t be afraid to use Kane and Heaton together in cash. Or just Heaton. Spurs is coming into this season lacking in all sorts of areas, and you’ll only need a little bit of luck to take Heaton’s 6-8fpts to a slate-winning, double-digit finish. If you have to be good to be lucky, Heaton has every right to get lucky this slate. I also don’t hate Matt Ryan.
Lucas Digne, Everton
Matthew Targett, Aston Villa
Both players stack a CS on the aforementioned keepers, and both helped lead the league in open field crossing last season. Digne was the run-away best DFS defender from last season, and Targett’s salary is far, FAR too cheap. You could talk me into all sorts of different names as well, like Holebas and his cards, Janmaat, Coleman, Diego Rico, or season-long gem Guilbert. With basically no wing presence to speak of on Spurs, Targett seems like one of the biggest locks of the slate.
(Not named Eriksen)
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Everton
Jack Grealish, Aston Villa
I’m not stuck on these teams, I swear.
I’ll be extremely surprised if Siggy isn’t the most valuable player of the slate. He should smash with the new scoring and I’m très (that’s Canadian for very) surprised to see him below 9k. At this point you can start to see the Everton/Villa stack building for GPP, but frankly, Villa are gems all around. Grealish may be more cash viable than GPP, but I’ll be surprised if he’s owned in the latter. He’s another guy who should do really well with the new DK scoring as his floor should flourish, so-to-say. I wouldn’t be opposed to the likes of a Bournemouth stack as well, with Fraser being another excellent option. Don’t sleep on the Southampton midfield; they consistently will sub their forwards off sub-75min, and with Burnley selling Heaton they are significantly weakened, especially if Hart starts. That being said, McNeil and JBG deserve respect, though the inclusion of Jay Rodriguez could spell minutes trouble.
(not named Kane)
Callum Wilson, Bournemouth
Chris Wood, Burnley
Callum Wilson is an interesting story. He’s made the English squad, finally, after overcoming a couple career-ending injuries to 99.9999% of the playing world. Him and Ryan Fraser linked up last season on an extremely consistent basis, so they make an excellent GPP stack, especially since Josh King has yet to find the net during pre-season. Compare that to Chris Wood, who lead the premier league teams in pre-season goals, and comes into the season as not only the hottest forward of the slate, but in the entire league. Mind you, he had two hattys, so grain of salt, and Burnley’s forward minutes have never been DFS friendly. Both of these options are both fairly GPP, but that’s because you should have Siggy in there for cash. To continue, Wesley is the kind of dude to give Spurs fits, Mousset was just sold by Bournemouth to Sheffield, as I think Sheffield should score as well, and Brighton has been scoring more than usual. Fade the Everton and Southampton forwards. Oh, and Deeney costs too much.
Bournemouth/Sheffield game stack
Firstly, it’s going to be super low owned as a game stack. It could shoot out as Bournemouth are historically far better at home, but at the same time historically allow…well, everything. Crosses, passes, through balls, goals, you name it. I’ll be very surprised if both sides are in any way owned on the same GPP card. Fraser with Wilson, either Diego Rico or Targett for floor and salary savings. Luke Freeman is one of my fav sneaky plays of the slate, and if Bournemouth will continue to be as leaky as ever, than John Fleck can’t be ignored either. I’m not convinced about the Sheffield forward minutes, but cramming the midfield is a great way to be contrarian with everyone owning massive shares in Siggy and Eriksen.
I do think one could fade Spurs. Not only do Villa offer legitimate real-life targets, but they have tons of DFS salary value, will be low owned, Spurs play poorly when they aren’t at 100%, and betting against Kane is pretty fun when he fails.