Euro Golf Digest - Final Edition (DP World Tour Championship)

Intro

Another week to forget about last week. Rory let us down in a huge way. We did find a diamond in the low salary range with Burmester but didn’t matter as our 2 other IN picks were duds. Lee Westwood fired off a final round of 64 to snatch the win from Sergio.

The final stage means we are in Dubai this week. Henrik Stenson defeated Lee Westwood in The Hero Challenge if want to put any weight into that. I wouldn’t. Molinari and Fleetwood are 1 and 2 in the rankings. It’s really down to them to decide the season long winner.

Course Info

Jumeirah Golf Estates (Par 72 – 7,675 Yards)

The Race to Dubai concludes in – you guessed it – Dubai at the Jumeirah Golf Estates. The greens are Tifeagle Bermuda. The fairways and rough are Bermude Tifway where the rough is overseeded with Rye. There are 99 bunkers on the course so expect your favorite golfers to find the sand at some point during the tournament. There are also 5 holes with water hazards including the 17th which is an island green.

Previous 5 winners of the event are Jon Rahm (2017), Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016), Rory McIlroy (2015), and Henrik Stenson (2014 & 2013).

Focused Stats

1) Strokes Gained Tee To Green (SG T2G)
2) Par 5 (P5)
3) Scrambling (SCRM)

Many many bunkers and some water hazards has SG T2G as the most important stat of the week to identify the golfers who pick up strokes on their way to the green. Next we bring in P5 because we need our golfers to take advantage of the Par 5s to put up good scores this week. Finally we bring in SCRM because even the best golfers will wind up in the bunkers at some point this week.

The Picks

IN = I like him this week. OUT = Not in my player pool

Big Fish ($9000+)

IN: Tommy Fleetwood ($10,200) – McIlroy statistically should take this spot but I vetoed that because he has burned me the last 2 tournaments he has been in – so expect him to win this week. Let’s focus on Fleetwood who ranks out at 2nd in SG T2G, 4th in P5, and 29th in SCRM. Could be a little better in the SCRM department but heavier weights on the first 2 categories brings him to the top. Add in the fact he is also trying to top Molinari to win the Race To Dubai I think he comes out firing on all cylinders.

OUT: Xander Schauffele ($11,000) – One of my wife’s favorite golfers. She plays him every week he is in the PGA (she doesn’t do Euro but if she did she would say pick him). Statistically he doesn’t rank our very well for our focused stats. 46th in SG T2G, 27th in P5, and 13th in SCRM. Not what we are looking for the shell out $11K.

Medium Fish ($7500 – $8900)

IN: Lee Westwood ($8,500) – Expect ownership to be high but I’m fine with playing the chalk here. 4th in SG T2G, 5th in P5, and 21st in SCRM. Course history could look a little better but his recent form is pretty good.

OUT: Alex Noren ($8,700) – Another one of my wife’s favorite golfers. Maybe I should pair them all in a lineup for her. 47th in SG T2G, 14th in P5, and 20th in SCRM. Obviously we are looking for those stats to be a little better. Not great course history either.

Small Fish (<=$7400)

IN: Dylan Frittelli ($7,300) – Eddie Pepperell in this range would be a no brainer if he didn’t pull out of the WGC a few weeks ago. The risk of a WD has me overlooking him but I see the case for playing him. Now to Frittelli – he ranks out at 12th in SG T2G, 3rd in P5, and 35th in SCRM. Pretty good for this range plus he finished 4th here last year.

OUT: Danny Willett ($7,400) – Ranks out at 41st in SG T2G, 39th in P5, and 38th in SCRM. Middle of the pack in all the focused stats. He did finish 4th in 2015 but the course history is mixed. Recent form isn’t the greatest either although he did finish 7th 2 tournaments ago.

That is all I have for this week. Good luck out on the DFS fields.

About the Author

Comments

  • cjousma

    Day 1 Analysis

    Tommy Fleetwood – 34.7% – Very chalky. Solid day. 3 birdies, no bogies so nice to get the BOFR bonus. Sitting in 10th place 3 strokes off the lead.

    Lee Westwood – 10.7% – Ownership is much lower than I expected. 4 birdies, 2 bogies. A decent scoring day. Currently sitting in 22nd.

    Dylan Frittelli – 18.2% – Pretty good scoring day for him. 5 birds with a bogey and double bogey. Did get a Streak bonus. Sitting with Westwood in 22nd and outscored him by 5 points today.

    Xander Schauffele – 6.1% – 4 birdies, 3 bogies. Not a bad day golf wise but not a good start DK wise for his salary. Sitting in 28th place right now.

    Alex Noren – 18.9% – Pretty nice day for Noren. 5 birdies, 2 bogies. Sitting in 10th place. Scored as many DK points as Fleetwood today.

    Danny Willett – 3.3% – Looking like the perfect GPP play after Day 1 (unfortunately for us). 7 birdies, 2 bogies. Sitting in 3rd place right now.

    Adrian Otaegui and Jordan Smith are tied for the lead at -6 with Smith scoring 5.5 more DK points than Otaegui. I only made 2 lineups and I did throw Otaegui on one. Hopefully he keeps it up for 3 more days.

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