Euro Golf Digest - Playoff Edition (Turkish Airlines Open)

Intro

Took Valderrama off due to getting the house ready for my daughter’s birthday party. Last week was the WGC and there was enough information from the RG pros floating around so I took last week off as well. I did good in the rain shortened Valderrama. 100% Sergio and he didn’t disappoint. I lost all profits from Valderrama last week when Rory let me down.

Playoffs? Are we at the Euro playoff already? This is the first leg of the playoff which concludes in Dubai in 2 weeks. The Turkish Airlines Open is a no cut event with 78 golfers so it will be imperative to find golfers who finish near the top of the leaderboard. We will focus on trying to identify guys who have good chances of a T10 or better finish.

Course Info

Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort (Par 71 – 7,159 Yards)

Kicking off the playoffs with a visit to Turkey. The Regnum Carya in Antalya, Turkey has a fully lit golf course so they could host the tournament at night if they chose to (they won’t but it would be cool). Weather won’t be a factor this week as it looks to be mid 80’s every day with a max 10 mph gust. The course is tree lined with water hazards on about half of the holes. Looks like a Bermuda/POA mix for the greens and Bermuda/Rye mix for the fairways and rough.

The tournament has been played here the previous 2 years with Justin Rose winning last year and Thorbjorn Olesen winning in 2016. Expect the winner this year to put up a score in the high teens/low twenties.

Focused Stats

1) Driving Accuracy (DA)
2) Strokes Gained Approach (SG A)
3) Greens In Regulation (GIR)

Keeping balls in the fairway will be very important this week so we will use DA as our most important stat of the week. Numerous water hazards will have us identifying golfers who are good with their approach shots. We will round out our focus with GIR to give our golfers plenty of opportunities to make birdies. Let’s go.

The Picks

IN = I like him this week. OUT = Not in my player pool

Let’s Find A Winner ($9000+)

IN: Justin Rose ($11,800) – Don’t overthink it and plug Rose in your lineups. Ranked 8th in the field in DA (1st in this price range), 5th in the field in SG A, and 16th in the field in GIR. He is coming in with really good form and won here last year.

OUT: Hao-Tong Li ($10,400) – I’ll also put Fleetwood ($11,500) here although Fleetwood is not due to stats but because I would rather spend $300 more for Rose. Back to Li, he is ranked 40th in the field (only 78 golfers in the field remember) in DA, 64th in SG A, and 46th in GIR. He’s golfed here the last 2 years with a 66th place (2017) and a 2nd place (2016) finish. So mixed course history. He is coming in with pretty good form but our focused stats have us looking in a different direction.

Let’s Find a T5 Finisher ($7500 – $8900)

IN: Joost Luiten ($8,600) – Only his 2nd tournament back after his wrist injury. He looks to be good to go with an 11th place finish at Valderrama. 5th in the field in DA, 3rd in SG A, and 4th in GIR. A 16th place finish here last year. Package that all up and I’m very high on Joost this week.

OUT: Robert Rock ($8,100) – I can never peg Rock down. He always seems to let me down when I do pick him and I notice his name near the top of the leaderboard when I dont even think about him. Let’s look at the stats. Ranking out at 52nd in DA, 49th in SG A, and 35th in GIR. Not great. Now look at the Course History where he has finished 52nd in both 2016 and 2017. Not great. His recent form is a little better with 2 T20 or better finishes in his last 3 tournaments. I will be looking in a different direction this week so expect Rock to be near the top of the leaderboard.

Let’s Find a T10 Finisher (<=$7400)

IN: Ashley Chesters ($6,900) – He may have some decent ownership this week since he finished 4th his last time out. Let’s keep this a statistical look though. Ranks 1st in the field in DA, 27th in SG A, and 15th in GIR. No course history and his recent form has been pretty good despite the MC at the British Masters. Looking for good things from Ashley this week.

OUT: Paul Dunne ($6,900) – Ranked 75th out of 78 golfers in DA (I didn’t have stats for the 3 Turkish golfers in the field this week so he is dead last). He also ranks 65th in SG A and 70th in GIR. He did finish 23rd here last year but as long as we picked the right focused stats he will be near the bottom of the leaderboard come Sunday.

That is all I have for this week. Good luck out on the DFS fields.

About the Author

Comments

  • cjousma

    Trying to get back to the daily analysis. Weekends are always tough though.

    Day 1 Analysis

    Justin Rose – 43.2% – Very high ownership as expected. Sitting in 2nd place after shooting a -6. Good day for Rosey Posey.

    Joost Luiten – 11.6% – Shot a -1 and sitting in 32nd place. Going to need better from him.

    Ashley Chesters – 5.3% – Shot a +1 and tied for 51st place. Not the start we needed for him. Hopefully he picks it up the next 3 days.

    Haotong Li – 5.5% – Sitting in 5th place with a -5. Good day for him that included an Eagle. Low ownership too.

    Robert Rock – 3.7% – Shot a +2 and tied for 60th place. Not a good start for him but kind of where we expected.

    Paul Dunne – 8.6% – Ummm. Wow. Sitting in 1st place. 7 birdies, no bogies. The opposite side of the leaderboard than where I expected to find him. Hopefully it was just a hot day and he cools off over the rest of the tournament.

    Overall – still in the mix. Need Joost and Chesters to step it up.

  • cjousma

    Day 2 Analysis

    Justin Rose – 43.2% – Another -6 for Rose and he moved himself up to 1st place. Right where we need him to be but he needs to keep rolling for 2 more days.

    Joost Luiten – 11.6% – Very nice day for Gimme Da Joost. -5 today and moved himself up to 17th. Trending the right direction.

    Ashley Chesters – 5.3% – A few more birdies on the card today. Shot a -2 and is -1 overall. He is in 45th so he still has a ways to go to get where we need him.

    Haotong Li – 5.5% – Another good day for him with a -4. Still in 5th place. He’s had a good couple days of golf.

    Robert Rock – 3.7% – Better day for Rock. Shot a -3 to get to -1 overall. He is keeping himself in the mix.

    Paul Dunne – 8.6% – More of a day I was expecting from Dunne. He shot even par staying at -7 overall. Drops him to 11th place but he is still in very good position.

    My main lineup is moving closer to the pay line which is good. Still need more from Chesters.

  • cjousma

    Day 3 Analysis

    Justin Rose – 43.2% – A -2 today to keep A4U70 alive (there will be a lot of them this week). Fell to 2nd place, 3 strokes behind the leader. Some work to do tomorrow to win this thing.

    Joost Luiten – 11.6% – Fired off a -2 today but stayed level position wise. He’ll need a day like yesterday to get into the Top 10.

    Ashley Chesters – 5.3% – boring -1 day with only 2 birdies. Sitting in 48th. I’ve given up hope on him this week.

    Haotong Li – 5.5% – Continuing to crush it with a -8 today. Shot his way to a 3 shot lead today. Obviously bad fade this week.

    Robert Rock – 3.7% – Shot a -2 with only 3 birdies. Sitting in 44th. Looking like a good fade for his price.

    Paul Dunne – 8.6% – A -2 to stay level position wise. He’s had a good week and was a bad fade.

    Our lineup is creeping even closer to the money but still 17 points out. Not as optimistic about cashing now as I was at this time yesterday. Switch Chesters with Dunne and we would be in the money.

  • cjousma

    Final Analysis

    Justin Rose – 43.2% – Shot a -3 and forced a playoff. He came out victorious which is what we were expecting, so did half of the other people though. Obviously good pick. Reclaims the #1 golfer in the world spot.

    Joost Luiten – 11.6% – A -1 today had him finish T23. Not where we we needed him to finish.

    Ashley Chesters – 5.3% – A better -2 today but he finished T47. We needed a lot better.

    Haotong Li – 5.5% – Went to the playoff against Rose. Lost in the playoff but a very respectable 2nd place finish. Would have almost been guaranteed money if you paired him with Rose in a lineup. Unfortunately we faded him.

    Robert Rock – 3.7% – Shot a nice -5 today to finish T30. Pretty mediocre for his price range but was looking a lot worse yesterday.

    Paul Dunne – 8.6% – Finished with a -1 and T18 finish. Pretty solid week for Paul.

    I finished 5 points out the money. Needed a few more points from Chesters and Joost.

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