Euro Golf Digest - Playoff V2 Edition (Nedbank Golf Challenge)
Didn’t make any money last week but had fun losing it. Justin Rose took down the Turkish Airlines Open in a playoff against Haotong Li. Expect ownership on Haotong Li to go up drastically this week.
Stage 2 of the Race To Dubai playoff. Another no cut event so we will try again to find players finishing near the top of the leaderboard. I mean that is the goal every week but pay lines will be high with everybody playing all 4 days.
Gary Player CC (Par 72 – 7,831 Yards)
The Gary Player CC in Sun City, South Africa is host to the 2nd stage of the Race To Dubai playoff. Bent Grass greens that are small and heavily guarded by bunkers. Fairways and rough are Kikuyu grass. Only a couple water hazards on the course this week (holes 9, 17, 18). Very long course playing at 7,831 yards. Looks like we have forecast of Hot and Sunny with minimal winds so weather shouldn’t play a factor in deciding the winner.
Past tournament winners here are: Branden Grace (2017), Alex Noren (2016), Danny Willett (2015), and Thomas Bjorn (2014). Note: 2014 and 2015 tournaments were only 30 player fields. 2016 and 2017 were more similar to this week with 72 entrants.
1) Strokes Gained Tee To Green (SG T2G)
2) Strokes Gained Off The Tee (SG OTT)
3) Driving Distance (DD)
Very focused on the driving game this week. We will use SG T2G to identify golfers who gain strokes on the field with their tee and approach shots. Then use SG OTT to hone in on golfers who gain strokes specifically off the tee. Then finalize our focused stats with DD to see if we can gain an edge by finding golfers who bomb it off the tee.
IN = I like him this week. OUT = Not in my player pool
Big Fish ($9000+)
IN: Rory McIlroy ($12,000) – Don’t love the price tag and his performance at the WGC has me holding a personal grudge against Rory. Rory is the only golfer in the top 10 in each of our focused stat categories in this price range so he takes this spot by default. 8th in SG T2G, 6th in SG OTT, and 1st in DD. Can’t argue with that so hopefully he brings his A game this week. Anything but a win at his price is a disappointment. I also think ownership in this range is going to go to Sergio, Grace, and Li. Rory might be 10% or lower this week which would help if he takes it down.
OUT: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,400) – I could make a case to play any golfer in this top range but honing in our focused stats brought down Fitzpatrick. 22nd in SG T2G, 46th in SG OTT, 60th in DD. We are focusing on big drivers this week and that isn’t Fitzpatrick.
Medium Fish ($7500 – $8900)
IN: Ryan Fox ($7,900) – Briefly looking over the field before running any stats, wasn’t expecting to land on Fox. Let’s see what popped him out. 2nd in SG T2G, 7th in SG OTT, and 2nd in DD. Top 10 in all of our focused stats is an obvious choice for the pick. He has to do better than his 52nd place finish here last year.
OUT: Chris Wood ($7,700) – Not a big driver so no shocker winding up here. 53rd in SG T2G, 60th in SG OTT, and 63rd in DD. 68th and 25th place finishes his previous 2 years here. We will be spending our money elsewhere.
Small Fish (<=$7400)
IN: Dean Burmester ($6,200) – Harder to find a balance in our focused stats in this lower salary range. I don’t love his recent form but I love the price tag to balance with Rory. Let’s bring in the focused stats – 25th in SG T2G, 5th in SG OTT, and 3rd in DD. We are looking for bombers and I’ll take a chance on Dean this week.
OUT: Chris Paisley ($7,400) – Not loving the stats, course history, or recent form for Paisley. Nothing stands out for him. Let’s look at our focused stats to paint the picture. 55th in SG T2G, 66th in SG OTT, 59th in DD. He’s not going to be bombing it with us this week.
That is all I have for this week. Good luck out on the DFS fields.