Euro Golf Digest - Playoff V2 Edition (Nedbank Golf Challenge)

Intro

Didn’t make any money last week but had fun losing it. Justin Rose took down the Turkish Airlines Open in a playoff against Haotong Li. Expect ownership on Haotong Li to go up drastically this week.

Stage 2 of the Race To Dubai playoff. Another no cut event so we will try again to find players finishing near the top of the leaderboard. I mean that is the goal every week but pay lines will be high with everybody playing all 4 days.

Course Info

Gary Player CC (Par 72 – 7,831 Yards)

The Gary Player CC in Sun City, South Africa is host to the 2nd stage of the Race To Dubai playoff. Bent Grass greens that are small and heavily guarded by bunkers. Fairways and rough are Kikuyu grass. Only a couple water hazards on the course this week (holes 9, 17, 18). Very long course playing at 7,831 yards. Looks like we have forecast of Hot and Sunny with minimal winds so weather shouldn’t play a factor in deciding the winner.

Past tournament winners here are: Branden Grace (2017), Alex Noren (2016), Danny Willett (2015), and Thomas Bjorn (2014). Note: 2014 and 2015 tournaments were only 30 player fields. 2016 and 2017 were more similar to this week with 72 entrants.

Focused Stats

1) Strokes Gained Tee To Green (SG T2G)
2) Strokes Gained Off The Tee (SG OTT)
3) Driving Distance (DD)

Very focused on the driving game this week. We will use SG T2G to identify golfers who gain strokes on the field with their tee and approach shots. Then use SG OTT to hone in on golfers who gain strokes specifically off the tee. Then finalize our focused stats with DD to see if we can gain an edge by finding golfers who bomb it off the tee.

The Picks

IN = I like him this week. OUT = Not in my player pool

Big Fish ($9000+)

IN: Rory McIlroy ($12,000) – Don’t love the price tag and his performance at the WGC has me holding a personal grudge against Rory. Rory is the only golfer in the top 10 in each of our focused stat categories in this price range so he takes this spot by default. 8th in SG T2G, 6th in SG OTT, and 1st in DD. Can’t argue with that so hopefully he brings his A game this week. Anything but a win at his price is a disappointment. I also think ownership in this range is going to go to Sergio, Grace, and Li. Rory might be 10% or lower this week which would help if he takes it down.

OUT: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,400) – I could make a case to play any golfer in this top range but honing in our focused stats brought down Fitzpatrick. 22nd in SG T2G, 46th in SG OTT, 60th in DD. We are focusing on big drivers this week and that isn’t Fitzpatrick.

Medium Fish ($7500 – $8900)

IN: Ryan Fox ($7,900) – Briefly looking over the field before running any stats, wasn’t expecting to land on Fox. Let’s see what popped him out. 2nd in SG T2G, 7th in SG OTT, and 2nd in DD. Top 10 in all of our focused stats is an obvious choice for the pick. He has to do better than his 52nd place finish here last year.

OUT: Chris Wood ($7,700) – Not a big driver so no shocker winding up here. 53rd in SG T2G, 60th in SG OTT, and 63rd in DD. 68th and 25th place finishes his previous 2 years here. We will be spending our money elsewhere.

Small Fish (<=$7400)

IN: Dean Burmester ($6,200) – Harder to find a balance in our focused stats in this lower salary range. I don’t love his recent form but I love the price tag to balance with Rory. Let’s bring in the focused stats – 25th in SG T2G, 5th in SG OTT, and 3rd in DD. We are looking for bombers and I’ll take a chance on Dean this week.

OUT: Chris Paisley ($7,400) – Not loving the stats, course history, or recent form for Paisley. Nothing stands out for him. Let’s look at our focused stats to paint the picture. 55th in SG T2G, 66th in SG OTT, 59th in DD. He’s not going to be bombing it with us this week.

That is all I have for this week. Good luck out on the DFS fields.

About the Author

Comments

  • cjousma

    Looks like Chris Wood is a WD this week because of his neck. We’ll pivot the out pick to Alexander Bjork ($8000). Bjork should carry some ownership but he doesn’t match up with our bomber criteria this week. 10th is SG T2G but 67th in both SG OTT and DD.

  • cjousma

    Day 1 Analysis

    Rory McIlroy – 24.4% – Shot E today with 4 birdies. Not what we needed from him. 8 strokes off the early lead in 21st place. He is much higher owned than I was anticipating. Sergio and Grace were only 17% I expected both of them to be in the 20s.

    Ryan Fox – 12.6% – Pretty solid day for Fox with a -2. 3 Birds and an Eagle to help the scoring. Sitting in 11th place.

    Dean Burmester – 8.2% – Not much going on today 1 bird, 1 bogey. Sitting at E in 21st place.

    Matthew Fitzpatrick – 18.8% – Not a good, not a bad day. -1 overall with 4 birdies. Currently in 13th place.

    Alexander Bjork – 9.3% – Pretty bad day for him. +3 overall and currently in 48th place. Still a long way to go but not a good start.

    Chris Paisley – 2.5% – Shot an E with 3 birdies. Currently 21st place.

    Sergio crushed it today with a -8. 2nd place is 4 strokes away so Sergio built up a nice lead for himself.

  • cjousma

    Day 2 Analysis

    Rory McIlroy – 24.4% – Shot a -1 today with 4 birds. Not good enough. Sitting in T19 but 8 strokes off the lead.

    Ryan Fox – 12.6% – +1 today (-1 overall) with only 2 birds. Not a good day. Tied with McIlroy in 19th.

    Dean Burmester – 8.2% – Much better day today scoring wise but was only -1. Sitting in T19 but for his price that is good position for Day 2. Only golfer of our 3 I am pleased with.

    Matthew Fitzpatrick – 18.8% – -1 seems to be a common score today. Sitting in 15th place at -2 overall. Not terrible since he was on the cheaper side of the big dollar range.

    Alexander Bjork – 9.3% – Another bad day for him with a +3. +6 overall and sitting in 63rd place. Looking like a good fade unless he turns it on over the weekend.

    Chris Paisley – 2.5% – Bad day for him with a +3. Sitting at +3 overall in 45th place.

    Sergio took a step back today but is still the leader. Oosthuizen is hot on his trail now and is the only golfer left with the possibility of the A4U70 bonus.

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