Fading the Chalk: I Finally Get to Use This Sweet Nurkic Pic
I have been playing DFS just about every single day for a little over a year and a half now. I’m not good enough to be considered a grinder, but I’m also not losing money all that much either. I want to get better. I have read in a few different books that one of the best ways to get better is to take the time to go back and analyze how your choices stack up against the people who are winning the contests you are playing. Taking the time to do that research is the motivation behind these Fading the Chalk articles. If you’d like to talk more about your research process or any other aspect of DFS, hit me up on Twitter: AndyBowsersDFS.
I didn’t watch any of the games last night, but I’m all caught up on Billions, and I made my first meal from Blue Apron. Unfortunately, I don’t have a sponsorship deal with them like everyone else in the world does, but the food was legit good. Also, I’m running a bit late today because I’m smoking ribs and turkey breasts. I guess you could say I am improving my work/life balance, or just working on getting fat. Either way, I’m eating well, watching some great TV, and playing lots of DFS. Life is good.
My Lineup: The “Did You See Those Cars Prices?” All-Stars
As I sat down to look at the Vegas data yesterday afternoon, I instantly started drooling at the prospect of rostering LeBron James coming off of a rest game against the tanking Lakers. Talk about a dream spot. Unfortunately, FanDuel recognized this as well and had Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love all priced up to the point where they just weren’t playable.
Starting at the bottom, it was either going to be Just Nurkic or Ivica Zubac at center. Since Nurkic still has a lot more upside than Zubac, I started with him and decided that I could always move down later if I needed the extra salary.
James Johnson was my lock of the day at power forward, and then I figured that I could either go up to Anthony Davis or save a bit of money with Julius Randle. Once again, I liked the more expensive guy better but wasn’t sure that I was going to have the value to get up to him.
The one value play that I did like yesterday was Brandon Ingram. This guy has been my dude lately. He just keeps putting up solid games at a bargain price. And since I knew I wasn’t going to be able to get up to LeBron James, I paired him with Kawhi Leonard.
The only two options I was willing to consider at shooting guard were C.J. McCollum and Josh Richardson, and that left me with enough money to fit Goran Dragic and Ricky Rubio at point guard. I also liked Jordan Clarkson there, but moving down to him didn’t give me enough money to upgrade significantly anywhere else.
Head-to-Head With the Pros
As usual, Pete found a way to get up to one of the studs that I totally missed. He went down from Rubio to Clarkson, and then also went down from Kawhi Leonard to Andrew Wiggins, which gave him enough room to move up from Julius Randle to Anthony Davis.
Ryan was the pro that got to me last night. His lineup made me realize that I did the math wrong and that I could have moved up from Kawhi to LeBron by going down from Rubio to Clarkson. Those extra 23 points would have pushed me well over the cash line in tournaments. Whoops.
Mike started with a lineup similar to Pete, but then he also went down to Ivica Zubac and Shabazz Muhammad to move up to DeMar DeRozan over C.J. McCollum. The dud from DeMar combined with a pretty lame night from Brow sunk this lineup.
Taking Down the Tournaments
I came up just a few points short of cashing in the $1 Dribbler (Single Entry) last night. The winner was @djluis221, and he paired Damian Lillard with LeBron James. He also got great value performances from Buddy Hield and Solomon Hill.
@boooourns took down the $300 Monster — again — with a lineup that was fairly chalky in the frontcourt, but got very creative with guys like D’Angelo Russell, Tyler Johnson, and Jordan Crawford in the backcourt.
My Results: Back to Making Money
I’m still kicking myself for missing the Clarkson/LeBron pivot, but other than that I did a pretty good job of landing on the right plays last night. And I was fortunate to turn a profit despite my one mistake, so things are good.
It’s also nice to see that equity curve starting to take a turn back towards the upside. Since I’m only playing a fraction of what I was playing earlier this year, it’s not going to move higher very quickly, but it is still heading in the right direction.
Moving onto today’s action, we have a nice little seven-game slate that features some intriguing matchups. My next stop is going to be the NBA First Look by @notorious for the Vegas info and DvP chart. Let’s dive right into that research and see if we can’t find a way to the profitable side of variance tonight!