Fading the Chalk: I Finally Get to Use This Sweet Nurkic Pic

I have been playing DFS just about every single day for a little over a year and a half now. I’m not good enough to be considered a grinder, but I’m also not losing money all that much either. I want to get better. I have read in a few different books that one of the best ways to get better is to take the time to go back and analyze how your choices stack up against the people who are winning the contests you are playing. Taking the time to do that research is the motivation behind these Fading the Chalk articles. If you’d like to talk more about your research process or any other aspect of DFS, hit me up on Twitter: AndyBowsersDFS.

I didn’t watch any of the games last night, but I’m all caught up on Billions, and I made my first meal from Blue Apron. Unfortunately, I don’t have a sponsorship deal with them like everyone else in the world does, but the food was legit good. Also, I’m running a bit late today because I’m smoking ribs and turkey breasts. I guess you could say I am improving my work/life balance, or just working on getting fat. Either way, I’m eating well, watching some great TV, and playing lots of DFS. Life is good.

My Lineup: The “Did You See Those Cars Prices?” All-Stars

As I sat down to look at the Vegas data yesterday afternoon, I instantly started drooling at the prospect of rostering LeBron James coming off of a rest game against the tanking Lakers. Talk about a dream spot. Unfortunately, FanDuel recognized this as well and had Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love all priced up to the point where they just weren’t playable.

Starting at the bottom, it was either going to be Just Nurkic or Ivica Zubac at center. Since Nurkic still has a lot more upside than Zubac, I started with him and decided that I could always move down later if I needed the extra salary.

James Johnson was my lock of the day at power forward, and then I figured that I could either go up to Anthony Davis or save a bit of money with Julius Randle. Once again, I liked the more expensive guy better but wasn’t sure that I was going to have the value to get up to him.

The one value play that I did like yesterday was Brandon Ingram. This guy has been my dude lately. He just keeps putting up solid games at a bargain price. And since I knew I wasn’t going to be able to get up to LeBron James, I paired him with Kawhi Leonard.

The only two options I was willing to consider at shooting guard were C.J. McCollum and Josh Richardson, and that left me with enough money to fit Goran Dragic and Ricky Rubio at point guard. I also liked Jordan Clarkson there, but moving down to him didn’t give me enough money to upgrade significantly anywhere else.

Head-to-Head With the Pros

As usual, Pete found a way to get up to one of the studs that I totally missed. He went down from Rubio to Clarkson, and then also went down from Kawhi Leonard to Andrew Wiggins, which gave him enough room to move up from Julius Randle to Anthony Davis.

Ryan was the pro that got to me last night. His lineup made me realize that I did the math wrong and that I could have moved up from Kawhi to LeBron by going down from Rubio to Clarkson. Those extra 23 points would have pushed me well over the cash line in tournaments. Whoops.

Mike started with a lineup similar to Pete, but then he also went down to Ivica Zubac and Shabazz Muhammad to move up to DeMar DeRozan over C.J. McCollum. The dud from DeMar combined with a pretty lame night from Brow sunk this lineup.

Taking Down the Tournaments

I came up just a few points short of cashing in the $1 Dribbler (Single Entry) last night. The winner was @djluis221, and he paired Damian Lillard with LeBron James. He also got great value performances from Buddy Hield and Solomon Hill.

@boooourns took down the $300 Monster — again — with a lineup that was fairly chalky in the frontcourt, but got very creative with guys like D’Angelo Russell, Tyler Johnson, and Jordan Crawford in the backcourt.

My Results: Back to Making Money

I’m still kicking myself for missing the Clarkson/LeBron pivot, but other than that I did a pretty good job of landing on the right plays last night. And I was fortunate to turn a profit despite my one mistake, so things are good.

It’s also nice to see that equity curve starting to take a turn back towards the upside. Since I’m only playing a fraction of what I was playing earlier this year, it’s not going to move higher very quickly, but it is still heading in the right direction.

Moving onto today’s action, we have a nice little seven-game slate that features some intriguing matchups. My next stop is going to be the NBA First Look by @notorious for the Vegas info and DvP chart. Let’s dive right into that research and see if we can’t find a way to the profitable side of variance tonight!

About the Author

  • Andrew Selby (AndyBowsers)

  • Andy is a restaurant manager that fell head-over-heels in love with the DFS world from the minute he opened his FanDuel account back in early 2015. Since he is also an accomplished freelance writer, it was only a matter of time before those two worlds collided. He currently writes a daily blog called Fading the Chalk where he breaks down his own lineup decisions along with the lineups of some the best in the business.

Comments

  • vibroking

    Nice read!

  • VRod305

    I couldn’t believe I missed just stacking the Cavs against the shitshow Lakers. I had James Johnson and few other guys that did well. The balanced approach just wasn’t the play yesterday.

  • howie_khalifa

    Andrew your article is something I look forward to every morning! Keep up the great work!

  • DanielSong39

    Any chance we can see the YTD results on the results by game type? It would be interesting to see how often you cash and the rate of return for each game type.

    Once a month would be plenty, but a long-term view of your results would be nice.

  • AndyBowsers

    • Blogger of the Month

      Blogger of the Month
    @DanielSong39 said...

    Any chance we can see the YTD results on the results by game type? It would be interesting to see how often you cash and the rate of return for each game type.

    Once a month would be plenty, but a long-term view of your results would be nice.

    Yeah for sure. A couple other people have requested that too. Just keep reminding me until I bother to remember!

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