Fading the Chalk: July 31st
Last night was one of those nights that always sucks in DFS. I stacked up the Rangers righties with one lefty in Joey Gallo and Choo hits 2 bombs and Odor hits one. I was right on the stack, but stacked it incorrectly. Variance can be annoying sometimes. Luckily, we have a 14 game slate to help me move on.
Before we get into my favorite stacks, I think that you can essentially play any team tonight. I don’t think any team stack will be over 10% owned. It’s most likely that the four chalkiest teams will be the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Diamondbacks, and the Braves(if it doesn’t PPD) due to each team having over a 5 implied run total from Vegas. Outside of a couple one-offs, I don’t see myself stacking any of those teams. Out of all of them, the Red Sox will likely be the lowest owned due to Mookie Betts being out of the lineup. So I don’t mind targeting JD Martinez at home as a good final piece to a team. Overall, I will be doing 5-3 stacks on my teams, so I doubt have any exposure here in GPPs. I’ll probably stick to them in cash games for the floor.
Let’s move on to where I’ll be focusing my ownership tonight.
Drew Pomeranz has been terrible this season. He’s allowing a wOBA over .400 and over .250 ISO against right handed batters. He hasn’t been much better against lefties, but the sample size is too small for my liking against them, so I’m taking that with a grain of salt. I love the Phillies on the road in Fenway and playing against a pitcher in Pomeranz who has allowed a 36.4% hard contact rate on the season. I will be sticking to the 1-6 hitters in their lineup in my stacks. It’s also not a bad idea to play Nick Williams in the lefty/lefty matchup to differentiate yourself from other Phillies’ stacks.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox really aren’t as bad offensively as the DFS community seems to think. The top five players in their lineup for tonight has an average wOBA of .361 and an ISO of .210. The bottom four of their lineup doesn’t have a player with a wOBA over .255 or an ISO of .110. So naturally, we should be stacking the top five guys in their lineup if we are stacking them. I love the leverage here with Danny Duffy likely to have reasonable ownership tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers
I know, I know. If you read this blog yesterday, then you know I stacked the Dodgers last night. You also know that it did not go well. They scored just two runs even with Freddy Peralta only going four innings. Machado’s homer in the 9th saved me in cash, so I had that at least. I’m going right back to the well tonight. With the addition of Brian Dozier, the Dodgers got even more ridiculously good, but I’m not exactly sure what the lineup will look like. Pretty much every bat that makes the lineup is in play until further notice and tonight is no different. The main downside is exactly what happened last night. The Brewers have one of the best bullpens in the Majors, so they can shut down anyone. Luckily for us, Wade Miley is starting tonight, so the Dodgers might get 6-8 runs before they even reach the bullpen. Miley has actually been good on the surface so far since his return, but when you dig into the numbers, it gets worrisome. He’s allowing a 42.8% hard contact rate, a 13.5% walk rate, and a xFIP of 5.40.
That’s all I have for today.
Thanks for reading.