Fading the Chalk: Rough Night for Balanced Lineups

I’m a restaurant manager that works crazy hours and uses DFS as a way to escape from the stress that comes with my job. I’m certainly not a pro, but I have been a profitable player over the past few years, and getting up early to blog about my process is one of the best ways that I have found to fight depression and anxiety. If you’d like to talk about barbecue, sports, or life in general, hit me up on Twitter: @AndyBowsersBBQ.

Between house hunting with my wife and squeezing in all of my camp chores on Red Dead Redemption 2, I just haven’t had much time to actually sit and watch basketball games lately, and I’m starting to wonder if that might be holding me back a bit. Of course, it’s also possible that I’m just having some bad luck in playing Anthony Davis when he scores 30 and fading him when he goes for 70.

My Lineup: The Fair & Balanced All-Stars

Last night was a unique slate that didn’t feel like it offered up a whole lot of options. After working my way through my process, the only real lock and load guys that I definitely wanted to play were Derrick Rose and Dennis Schroder. After that, it was all up in the air.

One thing that really frustrated me is that all of the best plays on both ends of the salary spectrum seemed to be at the power forward position. Yes, I though that Anthony Davis and LaMarcus Aldridge were both in strong spots, but so were Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka, Jerami Grant, and both of the Lakers PFs.

I figured people would be high on Collin Sexton getting his first NBA start, but I’m still not convinced that he is any good, and I’m afraid to consider rostering anyone on this horrible Cavaliers team. And I would have liked to adjust to the Miami news, but I had already had Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow in my lineup.

The bottom line for me last night is that I didn’t like any of the value options, so I didn’t have a way up to LeBron James or Anthony Davis. For that reason, I had to rely on DeMar DeRozan and Josh Richardson to go for 50 while everyone else got themselves above 30. And outside of Winslow, Grant, and McGee, I just about got there.

The Expert Lineups

In the $535 Rainmaker, Moklovin found locked in Derrick Rose and Dennis Schroder just like I did, but he found a way up to LeBron James and Anthony Davis using a combination of value guys like Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, DeAndre’ Bembry, Brandon Ingram, and Myles Turner. Clarkson, Bembry, and Ingram all came up huge and he just dropped Sextons sorry score.

CheddaBisque also finished in a great spot, but he did it with a more balanced approach pairing Victor Oladipo and Karl-Anthony Towns with Derrick Rose and Dennis Schroder. He also got big nights from Andrew Wiggins and “(player-popup #brandon-ingram)Brandon Ingram”:/players/brandon-ingram-35227…and apparently Dario Saric has come back to life a bit.

Awesemo paired Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis with Derrick Rose and Dennis Schroder. Then he went all the way down to Derrick White and “The Duke” Wayne Ellington in order to fit guys like Harrison Barnes, Serge Ibaka, and Steven Adams.

The AndyBowsers Slack Tournament

Steelbusnole was the top score in my Slack Tournament last night with this lineup that paired Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Davis with Derrick Rose and Dennis Schroder. Then he scored some nice returns on guys like Davis Bertans, Jabari Parker, and Dario Saric.

The Big Takeaway

Last night was a big slate, so it’s not surprising that we saw good returns from lineups that jammed in LeBron James and Anthony Davis, as well as lineups that spread the money around a little bit. But one thing that all of the lineups we looked at had in common is that they were all in on Derrick Rose and Dennis Schroder.

For that reason, the big takeaway today is that you can be a very successful DFS player by picking and choosing when you want to fade the chalky guys. If they’re in a spot that’s too good to pass up like Rose and Schroder, it’s perfectly fine to play them there and then find other places to differentiate. On the other hand, fading a popular value play like Collin Sexton worked out quite nicely.

Of course, that part of DFS can often be more of an art than a science, which is exactly what keeps all of us coming back day after day looking for new ways to attack these puzzles. Which brings us to another four-game slate on deck for tonight. Let’s jump into that research and I’ll see you back here for another edition of Fading the Chalk tomorrow!

Did you play the NBA slate last night? How did you do? Did you fall into the traps of playing guys who didn’t produce? Or did you crush and find yourself up at the top of your contests? Either way, leave a comment and let me know what went into your process!

About the Author

  • Andrew Selby (AndyBowsers)

  • Andy is a restaurant manager that fell head-over-heels in love with the DFS world from the minute he opened his FanDuel account back in early 2015. Since he is also an accomplished freelance writer, it was only a matter of time before those two worlds collided. He currently writes a daily blog called Fading the Chalk where he breaks down his own lineup decisions along with the lineups of some the best in the business.

Comments

  • Jayrhodes2k14

    I fell for the Sexton trap as I had 100% exposure and my bankroll is a lot lighter this morning because of it lol.

  • bhdevault

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    Had the same lineup as Moklovin did.. too bad I don’t have the bankroll to enter it into the $535!

  • mtjroto79

    Andy. Remember you are throwing away one score so playing two 5k guys doesnt help if they both score 25. I try to find 3 positions to chose from where exists a $3.9x guy and choose 2 of them even when aiming for a balanced lineup. That helps the lineup get more 8k guys.

  • AndyBowsers

    • Blogger of the Month

    @mtjroto79 said...

    Andy. Remember you are throwing away one score so playing two 5k guys doesnt help if they both score 25. I try to find 3 positions to chose from where exists a $3.9x guy and choose 2 of them even when aiming for a balanced lineup. That helps the lineup get more 8k guys.

    Yeah, but that’s only true if you can predict which score you are going to drop…in which case you would win every night anyway….

  • AndyBowsers

    • Blogger of the Month

    @bhdevault said...

    Had the same lineup as Moklovin did.. too bad I don’t have the bankroll to enter it into the $535!

    Feels like you’re off to a pretty great start this year, unless I’m just cherry picking the good nights.

  • AndyBowsers

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Jayrhodes2k14 said...

    I fell for the Sexton trap as I had 100% exposure and my bankroll is a lot lighter this morning because of it lol.

    I sent a group text like three minutes after lock saying “I wish I had moved to Sexton” so I don’t think it’s anything to beat yourself up over.

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