Fading the Chalk: Struggling to Make Decisions
I’m a restaurant manager that works crazy hours and uses DFS as a way to escape from the stress that comes with my job. I’m certainly not a pro, but I have been a profitable player over the past few years, and getting up early to blog about my process is one of the best ways that I have found to fight depression and anxiety. If you’d like to talk about barbecue, sports, or life in general, hit me up on Twitter: @AndyBowsersBBQ.
I’ve been struggling to put together a good lineup all week long. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a big 10-game slate or a little 4-game slate, I just can’t seem to make up my mind on which players that I want to roll with on any given night. And since I can’t take a stand on any players, I am finding myself defaulting to the projections way too much, which is an easy way to lose money playing this game.
My Lineup: The Indecision All-Stars
Based on the number of guys that I circled in my notebook yesterday, it’s safe to say that I am doing a decent job identifying sharp plays. However, figuring out a way to put those plays together in a profitable way is something that is just missing from my game right now.
Last night, for example, I rotated between those four point guards about a dozen times before settling on Chris Paul and Patrick Beverley. And I only settled on those two because I believed that was what the pros were going to do. We’ll see if that was right in a minute, but for now, let’s take a look at the lineup I ended up on.
One of the few plays that I did nail was Montrezl Harrell, who dropped 40.2 points at $5.8k. But outside of that, I was wishy-washy on just about everyone in my lineup, and every single one of them except for Khris Middleton came up short of expectations.
The Expert Lineups
BigPapaGates took down first place in the $535 Rainmaker Single Entry with this lineup that started with Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder just like mine did, but then he went up to Giannis Antetokounmpo. He also rolled out Eric Bledsoe and Klay Thompson as his other guards, which he was able to afford by stocking the bottom of his lineup with TJ Warren, Montrezl Harrell, Marcus Morris, and Jordan Bell.
The scoring in this tournament were not very impressive, so CheddaBisque was able to snag a seventh-place finish with this lineup that faded Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder in favor of cheaper guards in order to pair up Giannis Antetokoumpo and Kevin Durant at small forward. Then he finished with the same bottom three that we saw from BigPapaGates.
Moklovin was right behind CheddaBisque in 8th place with this lineup that looks a lot like some of the ones I was playing around with all afternoon except for the fact that I never really considered Giannis Antetokounmpo. I was locked into Kevin Durant for most of the day, so my version of this went up to Boban Marjanovic at center.
Awesemo paired Giannis Antetokounmpo with TJ Warren at small forward, but just about every other part of his lineup struggled, and only getting 43.1 from James Harden makes it very tough to put up a great score.
Hoop2410 was near the back of the back along with everyone else that paid up for Stephen Curry. He actually had a big Warriors stack going with Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Kevon Looney. Between that and the trash performances he got from the rest of his guys, Hoop is probably feeling a bit like I am this morning.
The AndyBowsers Slack Tournament
The winner of the AndyBowsers Slack Tournament was WallStreetWarriors, who just joined up yesterday and smoked all of us in his first tournament entry. He made it look easy with a balanced lineup anchored by 65.4 points from Kyrie Irving up top and a solid 42 from Steven Adams at the bottom.
The Big Takeaway
I’ve spent most of this early part of the season reminding myself that I need to be flexible and be open to taking a different approach on each and every slate. But yesterday I realized that I am getting away from my simple process of playing the guys that are the best values in the highest scoring matchups.
On top of that, I also need to stop letting myself change up my lineup just because certain guys have slightly better projections than others. Obviously, this is going to be easier said than done, but that is one of the core principles of my approach, so I need to get back to it. Fortunately, we have a brand new slate to start working on this morning. Let’s dive into that research and I’ll see you back here tomorrow for another edition of Fading the Chalk.
Did you play the NBA slate last night? How did you do? Did you fall into the traps of playing guys who didn’t produce? Or did you crush and find yourself up at the top of your contests? Either way, leave a comment and let me know what went into your process!