Fading the Chalk: Sunday Edition
Welcome to the second rendition of my attempt at a blog!
I will be focusing on GPP stacks that I think are likely to be low owned and potentially slate breaking. My strategy from a GPP standpoint is almost always fade the chalk in baseball. This is usually due to variance, but it is more that i’m trying to be a good position when the chalk goes awry. Last night was not a chalk goes awry kind of night with the Indians being the lone team to score over 7 runs with 16 runs. Let’s get into today’s GPP stacks.
I know you think I’m selling out here, but hear me out. I don’t think the Indians will be the highest owned stack today. The way this slate is constructed is that there are two obvious aces in Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, but they also cost 13.2k and 13.4k on DK, respectively. The Indians are priced way up and it is near impossible to fit a stud ace and more than one or two top end Indians bats. They are facing the shell formerly known as Yovani Gallardo, it’s hot, and they are the away team. They have an implied team total over 6 runs. Every batter is in play here and I think if you can find two mid range or cheap pitcher combo that you like, it will be contrarian to play a full Indians stack. I even think a wrap around with whichever cheap outfielder they throw in the lineup is a good way to differentiate yourself in large-field tournaments.
I could just copy and paste everything I said yesterday here and it would nearly all apply to why I love the Twins today. The matchup is a little worse in terms of overall numbers, but I love targeting fly ball teams against ground ball pitchers. Keller has been allowing a decent amount of hard contact at 33.8% this season and is a low strikeout pitcher. I will be even higher on my exposure here with Logan Morrison returning to the starting lineup as he is another massive fly ball hitter. The Twins have also crushed right handed pitching as a team with their projected starting lineup offering a .184 ISO and .353 wOBA. I always leave Joe Mauer out of my stacks because he lacks power these days, but I love the 2-7, or even the sneaky wrap around with Jake Cave.
Toronto Blue Jays
Andrew Cashner is returning from the DL and while he has been decent this year, he is facing a Blue Jays team that I love to target at home. Against right handed pitching this season, the Blue Jays have an outlandish .216 ISO. This is a bit skewed due to Dwight Smith Jr. NCSU alum in me almost said Dennis Smith Jr.) crushing righties in a limited sample size, but still. That is insane. They are facing a pitcher in Cashner who has given up a .211 ISO to both sides of the plate this season. This is a recipe for disaster for Cashner and fantasy goodness for us. They also crush fastballs, which happens to be over 60% of the pitches that Cashner has been throwing this season. Every single guy in the lineup is in play here and I absolutely love targeting the wrap around stack here with Diaz and Gurriel as they both have an ISO over .180.
That’s all I’ve got today. Thank you for reading and feel free to leave a comment with any comments or concerns. Let’s take down some GPPs!