FanDuel Tennis DFS Strategy: Monday August 26th
Welcome to the opening Monday of the US Open! While the summer swing leading up the US Open was fun, it sure is nice to have monster tournaments back with the start of the year’s fourth and final major. If you weren’t following along with Wimbledon I will be doing three tiers of picks, an expensive play, a mid-range play, and a bargain bin play. FanDuel tends to skip day one of the lesser tournaments but with this being a major they put up a slate, thus I will be using FanDuel pricing for the picks for the entirety of the US Open. With that said let’s get into the picks and good luck Grinders with the US Open!
David Goffin – $24, t-8th highest priced player on the slate
In the upper tier you can’t really go wrong with any play. It is unlikely that more than maybe one or two of these players lose in a tremendous upset so we are looking for someone who can win in straight sets, keep double faults to a minimum and beat their opponent by a fair amount of games. It is also a good idea when looking toward the higher end that you are looking to be contrarian. Everyone knows the Feds and Djokovic’s of the world and will flock to the names, David Goffin is not necessarily a household name but could easily be the highest scoring player on the slate for day one. Goffin has a 1-0 record against Moutet, beating him handily in straight sets at the French Open in 2018. Goffin also carries a -1200 line going into his match. What is also appealing about Goffin coming into this match his how he is currently playing. Goffin just made it to the final in Cincinnati against Medvedev and at Wimbledon he made it to the quarters before losing to Djokovic. Moutet since beating Dimitrov in the first round of Wimbledon has lost four consecutive ATP matches against less than stellar competition.
What initial struck me in this match is just how much of a double fault machine Moutet is. Moutet in his last four ATP matches has managed 11, 8, 8, and 9 double faults in those matches. Moutet wins just 63% of first serve points and that percentage falls to 47% on the second serve. Moutet’s serve is not particularly fast or accurate as he holds a 2:1 double fault to ace ratio on the year in ATP events, something that Goffin will be able to take advantage of. When Goffin sees a second serve he wins that 51% of the time, with the amount of double faults and slow second serves that he will see against Moutet that percentage should jump dramatically this match. Goffin’s serve is not overpowering but he typically places his first serves strategically. Goffin wins 79% of his service games and keeps his double faults low. Moutet’s better on his return than his serve but Moutet has yet to convert a break point opportunity on hard court for ATP events in 2019. I fully expect Goffin to take advantage of the free points he is given with the double faults Moutet will produce and Goffin should win easily in straight sets.
Prediction: 6-2, 6-0, 6-3 Goffin
Adrian Mannarino – $16, t-63rd most expensive player on the slate
This play is on the lower end of the mid-range plays and arguably could be a bargain bin play but I do like Mannarino in this match-up. Hard court is neither player’s favorite surface but Mannarino has had more success than Evans and has looked much better this year on hard courts. Mannarino holds a 1-0 career record against Evans, beating him last year on one of the grass court tournaments that lead up to Wimbledon. Mannarino is betting underdog coming into the match at +114. Neither player made a deep run in any summer tournaments, Evans did make it to the quarters in Atlanta but most of his tournaments were one and done’s or two and done’s. Mannarino in most of his tournaments would make the third round and bow out, but did have more impressive wins along the way, one of those being a straight set victory over Coric in Montreal.
Mannarino has a mediocre serve, not overpowering but not weak either. He holds serve at a 77% clip, saves break points at a percentage of 58%, and holds just over a 2:1 ace to double fault ratio on hard courts this year. The key for the serve for Mannarino is getting the first serves in play. Evans wins just 29% of first service points on his return. That number goes up to 48% on the second serve, something Mannarino is not exceptional at. Getting the first serves in play should keep Mannarino from giving Evans many break opportunities. Evans provides similar numbers to Mannarino on his serve. Evans wins 81% of his service games, saves break points at 65%, but his ace to double fault ratio is just better than 1:1. Evans tends to go for it a little more on his second serve. If Evans can accurately place his second serves this is a big advantage for him, but based on his history I do not see that happening. I certainly do not believe Mannarino is going to win one of these sets by a substantial margin, but I do think he can win in straights here and for a mid-range play that is what we need.
Prediction: 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (4) Mannarino
Bargain Bin Play:
Feliciano Lopez- $9, t-12th cheapest player on the slate
It is hard to really like anyone in the bargain bin plays, but someone I will have some exposure to is Feliciano Lopez. Lopez holds a 1-0 career record against Fritz, beating him on grass in 2015 in straight sets. Lopez comes into this match as a +410 underdog. This is the battle of the old vs. the young and I am hopefully that the experience that Lopez has will come through in this match. Both players have great serves, Lopez on hard court holds serve at an 84% rate all-time but it has dipped a bit to 81% in 2019. Fritz holds serve at an 87% clip. Fritz can rack up the aces at a 4:1 ratio but Lopez still gets his fair share with just over a 2:1 ratio. While Fritz does hold a slight advantage with his serve, where Lopez does have an advantage is with his return game. This year on hard courts Lopez has won just 13% of his return games, but all time on hard courts that percentage is 33%. When he does see break points Lopez still converts them at a high rate of 40%. Fritz on the other hand wins just 15% of his return games and converts 33% of his break point opportunities. Fritz typically does not rack up many double faults, in his recent matches he will double fault anywhere from 1-5 times. If Fritz has to go to his second serve often, this is where Lopez will take advantage. Fritz wins just 51% of his second serve points and Lopez wins 44% of his second serve points on the return. It is a little bit concerning that Lopez did retire last week from his match to eventual champion Hurkacz but assuming he is healthy now I feel he can pull the upset off.
Prediction: 6-4, 6-7 (2), 6-4, 6-3 Lopez
Going with these three players gives you an average of $17 remaining to fill out your other three roster spots, giving the opportunity to go with another expensive player and still fitting in two more decent plays. Much like Wimbledon I will be back everyday with FanDuel tennis picks and also bring back my bonus bets when a good bet opportunity pops up. Good luck and enjoy the matches!