Fantasy Draft Review Week 2: RB Ownership and Results/DFS Theory

When looking at Week 2, we had an exciting week with various high scoring games for fantasy, with some shocking scores. At one point on DraftKings, Corey Coleman and Josh McCown were in the winning lineup and games like NO/NYG had zero offensive TDs. We’re just waiting on the Primetime MNF game where Jordan Matthews is sitting at 10% ownership and where Alshon Jeffery is sitting at 13% ownership with 4,051 entries total. Ryan Matthews is only at 1% ownership but actually is in a good spot I think tonight as he’s been getting lots of carries.

I entered 20+ entries into the Run and Gun for the second straight week and have success so far ($432)…I’m hoping Matthews and Jeffery do not rock the boat too much. Last week, Deangelo Williams and Antonio Brown took me from ($800) to ) ($-200) …so the Monday night games can be especially tilting and so far do not seem to be faded at all given the usual propensity for other tournaments to historically have less ownership in later games on the slate. I guess, with studs like Williams and Brown, ownership stays pretty fluid independent of the time of the game on the slate. I definitely wish I hadn’t made that mistake last week as I was too focused on the DraftKings Sunday only slate, oh well, on to week 2…and week 3 soon.

I like to address RB first before other positions, because it’s becoming pretty clear that you NEED to hit RB on Fantasy Draft, or at least not have the highest few owned burn you if you want to cash in your lineups that week. We had two weeks in a row where the top RB was between 45%-48% owned. This was a week where CJ Anderson had a fine game at 18.30 pts. and was the 8th highest owned RB of the slate. What happened was, he kept you afloat in tournaments, and he didn’t sink your ship if you owned, or if you faded him. SO I think everyone was pleased with Anderson, a vast difference than the MUST play of Deangelo Williams at 48% ownership and a huge game in week 1.

Notable RB Ownership:

(RB’s highlighted scored at least 17 pts and represent good results that you’d be feel GOOD or at least OK about if trying to win a large GPP)

RB’s:

CJ Anderson: 45% 18 pts, (8th best RB on the slate)
Deangelo Williams 29% 23 pts (4th best RB on the slate)

TJ Yeldon: 26% 11 pts (15th best RB)
David Johnson: 25% 17 pts (10th best on slate)

5h owned: Riddick 9%
6th owned: Blount 9%
7th owned: Miller 8%
8th owned: Ware 6%
9th owned: Murray 5%
10th owned: Elliott 4% owned

Analysis

Three of the top four RB’s owned last week scored at least 17 pts and were from 25-48% owned. The only one who failed to produce was TJ Yeldon, who had 8 receptions BUT failed to record 40 all purpose yards or score! This may be an outlier as SD came into that game pretty ticked off. 96% of the money at SportsBook was on JAX and they got destroyed, so this was maybe an outlier. I would err with caution with Yeldon, but he actually might make a great play if he can haul in passes and have better success with a JAX win.

The other lesson is, Williams, Anderson, Johnson, all produced, and were favored to win in games with pretty high Vegas totals (all over 45). They all are bell-cow backs who are also very active in the passing game so TD potential is definitely there. All games had a relatively close spread too, so blowouts weren’t expected. David Johnson played phenomenally but ARZ had the game won too early so he forfeited probably another 10+ fantasy points. He remains an elite play and is arguably the best RB play in the league with Deangelo Williams, who scored a TD and had over 120 all purpose yards. CJ Anderson remains an elite play as well but is slightly limited by a rookie QB who is more conservative. The trio of Williams, Johnson, and Anderson, are almost impossible to fade on Fantasy Draft moving forward. If you played Anderson you were fine with it, if you didn’t, you’re lucky he didn’t put up 30+ pts against the Colts defense.

Theo Riddick may have more potential if Abdullah is out for long, however he showed his volatility as he had a below average fantasy output.

Blount is becoming a bell-cow in New England as he rumbled for over 100 yards and scored a TD scoring a GPP winnable 21 pts. Blount does remain limited in the passing game. I like him in GPPs until Brady is back or in games we can expect him to receive 20+ carries, though, you never know what NE will pull as their offensive game plan. He is a Boom/Bust vs Houston.

Spencer Ware disappointed as I and many expected vs. the Texans. He still flashes big play potential in the passing game and remains a great play most weeks against average or subpar defenses as he also rushes the ball well.

DeMarco Murray is the rich man’s Latavius Murray. He had 7 receptions and over 100 all purpose yards, this is a guy we really want to get some shares of. He is limited by
TEN’s sluggish offense so far, however, they should develop soon with Mariota, Walker, and Sharpe. When DeMarco scores a TD he’s a poor man’s DeAngelo Williams in an offense a couple tiers below Pittsburgh- though in the right matchup- Murray has top (3) RB GPP potential and was the 6th overall RB this week despite the Titans scoring under 17 pts. I’m a big fan moving forward at his lower price.

Shocks of the Week we Need to Consider Moving Forward

Finishing in the top four of the top five RB’s of the week were Bernard, Crowell, Gordon, L. Murray scored from a range of 22-28 pts on the week for #1-#5 RBs of the week.

Bernard is turning into a PPR monster for CIN and was a sharp play at 0% ownership. However, with defenses keying in on AJ Green, Bernard makes sense for CIN in passing situations if Green is blanketed. It will be interesting to see what he can do moving forward. I wouldn’t go overboard yet, but I will likely play shares of him next week depending on price. Just be wary of PPR monsters like Roddick and Bernard, as they do not get goal-line touches. Roddick, who had a huge week last week, put up a dud this week while he was huge in the passing game the week before.

Crowell had a huge game for CLE as they once again came up short to BAL for the third straight time. He had 18 carries to Duke Johnson 3. This is looking like a great play moving forward. He may make a fine play vs Miami next week, though, it may be tough sledding for CLE with a rookie QB and an 0-2 Miami team looking for their first win at home. Definitely a guy I want to consider down the road as a sneaky high volume and effective GPP player if in a good matchup and if Kessler looks proficient.

Gordon is trending way upward as Danny Woodhead AND Keenan Allen are done for the year. Finally, Gordon should be unleashed and has looked good as he went over 100 yards and scored a TD vs Jax and added a few receptions. He makes an excellent play vs IND next week, let’s just hope SD can spread the ball around enough so teams won’t stack the box like they do agains Gurley and LA. With Rivers though, I like Gordon to turn into a huge fantasy gem. I definitely want shares of Gordon next week depending on price and regardless.

Latavius Murray went for over 100 purpose yards and scored a TD. He’s sneakily turning into a great play if OAK is expected to score 25+ points, as they usually will be given their vulnerable defense and proficient offense. I want to play more Latavius next week, though, he’s almost TD dependent, but not 100% TD dependent, I still like his yardage potential as 15+ pts worst case scenario if his price is OK that week.

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