Fantasy PGA Preview: Deutsche Bank
Round two of the playoffs is now upon us. The top 100 PGA players are left standing and on their way to Boston. The top 70 in FedEx points will continue on after this event. Meaning if a player misses the cut he may not be eliminated from the playoffs. With that being said those who make the cut are not guaranteed to advance depending on their current position in the FedEx cup points system. This year Draftkings will have a hospitality tent at the event so heres to hoping DK can attract more golf fans to the DFS community.
So last week had some highs and lows. On Saturday I jumped from 50th in the $27 GPP to first. By the end of the day I was sitting pretty in second. Then Sunday happened, more particularly Sunday afternoon happened. While I had Hunter Mahan and Jason Day, Jim Furyk and Kevin Chappell both had late afternoon stumbles that costed me a bunch of cash. Chappell went bogey, bogey, bogey to finish and Furyk’s final bogey was the final nail in the coffin. Those four holes were the difference between $2250 and $650, gutted. Even with Chappell’s collapse I still had a shot at $1750, but that final hole of Jim sunk that hope as well.
In the end it was Hunter Mahan beating out the trio of Day, Tringale and a surprise Stuart Appleby to take his first victory since the Shell Houston in 2012. With this win you can bet he has now caught the eye of Tom Watson and could be a potential Ryder Cup captains pick.
Deutsche Bank Championship
As I stated before the PGA crew are heading north to Boston for this event. One of the bigger impacts of this event for fantasy players is that it starts Friday and ends Labour Day Monday. So for some of us we get an extra day of doing a Ruxin and tinkering with our lineups.
The location this week is the TPC Boston. Unlike last week it is the same venue for the Deutsche Bank Championship every year. As Patches O’Houlihan once told us “Aim Low”. Over the last 10 years the average winning score at this course is -19. At times pars will feel like bogeys and birdies will feel like pars. The course is a par 71 and runs 7216.
The weather for this event looks to be ideal conditions up to Sunday where the clouds will roll in, with possible rain on the Monday.
|Form is the key going into the playoffs. It will be hard to stray away from those who performed well on a hard course last week. Day has the distance to bring this course to its knees and he has the ability to take most events by the scruff of the neck. Last year Day placed 13th at this event and lead the field in driving distance. After being frustrated most of the year with injury he is looking to finish the season off strong. Coming second last week is just one step in the right direction.|
|In the DFS world people like to talk about players that are “due”. Well Furyk its the ultimate “due” player in DFS golf. As I said about last week he did screw me out of $1100, but in DFS you need to use your brain and not your emotion. Without him I would have never been in that position in the first place. He is a rock solid option have if he is getting you consistent top 10 finishes then there is no reason to jump of that train. Last week Furyk was 18th in greens in regulation and 20th in putting average. In other words he was really good at what you need to do at TPC Boston.|
|Regardless of GPP or cash games Hunter Mahan will most likely be the most owned player this week. $8,900 for a player just coming off an impressive win is a little low. Last week in the $27 GPP he was 11% owned, this week I’m looking for him to be around the 40-50% range. He lead the field last week in greens in regulation. Hunter and Phil are the only two players left that have played in every playoff tournament in the history of the PGA playoffs. Simply put, playoff time he is in full hunter mode.|
|I’m going back to the Keegan well. The proud Boston native is an intriguing pick. On one hand he has been inconsistent, on the other he has played well in Boston the last two years at this event. He placed 53rd last week at The Barclays but what let him down there was accuracy and putting. Ranking poorly in both, which on that course was not a good thing. In the distance and greens in regulation he ranked 5th for both of them. Look for Keegan to take advantage of some home cooking this week.|
|Zach Johnson interests me this week. He isn’t a long hitter by any means. He has not put up any great finish since the John Deere seven weeks ago. The thing that has me interested in him is that he is a cheap option and his hitory this year in events that have gone low. As I said above the average winning score of this is -19. If you look at events so far this year that Zach has played in that have gone -19 or lower we get the following results. Shrinners (40th), Tournament of Champions (1st), Humana (3rd) and the John Deere (2nd). In fact the John Deere was his last top 10 finish. Even if you look at the next lowest tournament the Sony (-17) he finished 8th there as well. Besides the Shrinners from last year his history this season is that he likes to go low.|
|When I look at TPC Bostons course stats I noticed it is similar to TPC Scottsdale. Exactly the same length, same par and the greens are pretty much the same size. Big Kev won this year at TPC Scottsdale. He also had a top 10 here (TPC Boston) last season as well as having a 13th placed finish at TPC Scottsdale in 2013. You need to hit greens in regulation in order to succeed at the Deutsche Bank. Well Big Kev is always near the top of greens hit every year. Anything higher than a top 40 finish for Big Kev and its gravy.|
So there you have it folks a few picks for the Deutsche Bank Championship
Good luck to all