Fantasy PGA Preview: Waste Managment Phoenix Open

Gibb Pollard (gibbathy)

Created 6 years ago, Last Updated 6 years ago

As most of the American sporting population waits at the gates of the University of Phoenix Stadium spying on the upcoming Super Bowl between the New England Deflatriots and the Seattle Adderalls, it is estimated that 500,000 PGA fans will be in attendance over the four days at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, which is just 30 miles east of the Superbowl venue. That makes this week’s PGA event, the biggest Super Bowl tailgate party in history.

I am hoping PGAtour.com steps up and has a continuous stream of the 16th hole for all four days. It would beat out any pre-game Super Bowl show in terms of interest.

Humana Challenge Recap

I could copy and paste my previous two Humana recaps from years past and it would still hold true today. In terms of fantasy golf, I hate the Humana. There, I said it. Like a horribly misjudged putt, I can never get the read right. My picks were either pulled or just burnt the edges, with five picks missing the cut. My one guy who made the cut was like making a 60 footer for par. Yeah, sure great, I made the putt, but it would have been better if it was a birdie or eagle (top 10 or better).

In years past, I might have gotten dejected and questioned: why do I do this? Today I am saying, it’s the Humana. Players that shot -7 missed the cut. It is hard to get a read on how players will do at this tournament, and it’s hard to actually read on the players after it’s over and done with.

In the end, it was Bill Haas taking the event down. Perfect timing too. In a few weeks, his wife will be giving birth and who knows how that will affect the rest of his season. Haas has now secured a win for the 2014/15 season, better than any gift they would have gotten at a baby shower. There has to be some irony in a guy named “Slick Willy” handing over the Humana trophy.

Waste Management Phoenix Open

Well, what can I say about this tournament other than it has one hole that would make Shooter McGavin cringe. The 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale is considered the loudest hole in golf. Basically, you have 35,000 fans drinking beer, cheering (and jeering) every shot taken. The whole hole is surrounded by a stadium. There is nowhere to hide on this hole. Put your tee shot within birdie distance and you hear a roar from the crowd. Miss the green altogether and don’t be surprised if you are boo’d relentlessly. Over the years, organizers have put a dampen on events by eliminating the caddie races, and this year they have eliminated players tossing gear into the crowd.

The course itself has had a few changes to it. It now runs at 7,266 yards in length. The course is still a Par 71 track. It is guarded by 65 bunkers and six water hazards. Every bunker has been redone and has been brought more into play. Extra trees have been added to make the course play tougher. Four greens were rebuilt, and most of them given a face lift in either reshaping or resurfacing.

The weather should be cloudy the first day, with showers then Friday and Saturday. Super Bowl Sunday should be partly sunny. The temperature will push 80 the first day, then drop to 70 or below for the remainder of the tournament. For those who like to play the early morning vs. afternoon game to beat the weather, it looks like most of the bad weather will be Friday afternoon. So if you’re inclined to stack on particular session, then afternoon Thursday with morning Friday starts would be the better play. Just note: I’m not a meteorologist.

Golfers

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Hideki Matsuyama
	DraftKings	$10,700
	Fantasy Feud	$146,000
	DraftDay	$19,400
I’m bringing Hideki back for this week’s tournament. I think he is priced well and sandwiched in between two players that have won already on Tour (Haas and Reed). I think this strengthens his appeal as a GPP play. When given the option between these three evenly priced players, most people will probably take one of the two that have won in recent weeks, as opposed to the guy that came 78th in his last event. Hideki came fourth at this event last season, and only he and Kevin Stadler (the winner) shot all four rounds in the 60s.
Last Three Events
Sony	Hyundai	Hero
78th	3rd	13th
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Gary Woodland
	DraftKings	$9,400
	Fantasy Feud	$130,000
	DraftDay	$17,950
I literally can’t make a team this week and not have Woodland on it. I might have my blinkers on, but I think his value is too good to pass up. He has two top 5s in his last three tournaments and has three top 10s in his last four. He has a 100% cut rate at this tournament (three starts). Among players who have started multiple times here in the last five years, Woodland owns the sixth-best average finishing place. Woodland is also one of the most elite bombers on Tour, and with the potential of rain he might be licking his chops.
Last Three Events
Sony	HSBC	CIMB
3rd	56th	2nd
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Hunter Mahan
	DraftKings	$8,900
	Fantasy Feud	$130,000
	DraftDay	$17,700
My third pick is a total contrarian play. If you look at three players above and three players below of Hunter, you find these players. He’s above Reed, Palmer and Woodland and below DeLaet, Steele and Justin Thomas. Out of those seven names, only one player has won this event before, and that name is Hunter Mahan. In the last five years, Hunter is four out of four in making the cut with two top 5 finishes. I don’t think he will be owned much in GPPss, so he could be a great play for that format
Last Three Events
Hyundai	Hero	HSBC
17th	17th	28th
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Francesco Molinari
	DraftKings	$7,500
	Fantasy Feud	$102,000
	DraftDay	$15,600
Like Woodland, there has not been a roster I have built that Molinari hasn’t been on. I have always been a fan of Molinari, and I love that he is playing more on Tour these days. Molinari has secured two top 10 finishes in his last three events. This time last year, Molinari strung together a nice four-event stretch of top 15 finishes. Granted that was on the European Tour, but I do find there are some golfers that are very rhythmic in their performance patterns.
Last Three Events
Humana	Sony	Alfred
10th	37th	6th
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Shawn Stefani
	DraftKings	$7,000
	Fantasy Feud	$88,000
	DraftDay	$14,650
If you take out all the players that have won an event this season, you will find Stefani 22 points behind first place in the FedEx Cup standings. Stefani shot a brutal 75 last Thursday at the Humana, leaving him in a massive hole to start the event. Stefani then proceed to play lights out and ended up in 15th place by the end of Sunday. That in itself is impressive enough to pick him this week, but then, in his two events prior to the Humana, he had a pair of top 10 finishes. At 7K, he is great value.
Last Three Events
Humana	Sony	Mayakoba
15th	6th	2nd
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Sleeper

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Aaron Baddeley
	DraftKings	$5,700
	Fantasy Feud	$67,000
	DraftDay	$14,300
I always like a Scottsdale resident in my teams at this event. Here is my guy. He gives me great roster flexibility. His total history at this event is a 66% cut rate, which is not great, but over the last five years it has been five cuts made from five starts. None of those results have secured a finish lower than 37th, but that is all I need from Baddeley at this price. To start the 2014/15 season, he has made four cuts from four starts, with an averaging finishing position of 37th.
Last Three Events
Mayakoba	McGladrey	Shriners
37th	48th	33rd
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So there you have it folks: my picks for the Waste Management Open.

Good luck and stay safe this Super Bowl Sunday.

Cheers

Gibb