As final exams approach for my classes I become busier and busier with make up and late work to grade. I am happy Christmas break is quickly approaching, but it has severely cut into my DFS research time with extra papers to grade and extra things to do around the house. This week and weekend consisted of grading papers, putting up Christmas lights, grading papers, cleaning the garage, grading papers, doing house work, grading papers…. as you can see this is one of the busiest times of the year for teachers.
With all of the things above going on I had a rough week in DFS and I learned a lesson the hard way. It really is better to just take some nights off instead of playing with little research. As much research as I have done over the course of the NBA season and as “knowledgeable” I feel I am, it is still very difficult to be successful without daily research. I learned this lesson the hard way this past week. Overall I am down a little over $8 this past week. For a small bankroll guy like me that is rough! Lesson learned on taking nights off though, that is for sure!
For the main focus of this weeks blog I will examine my worst line up from the week and explain my thinking of why to play each player, and what went wrong in my LU. I am not familiar with adding images to a blog so I will just list my team below.
*Rajon Rondo – 23.25
*Monta Ellis – 5
*Kevin Durant – 42.25
*Trevor Booker – 8
*Ian Mahinmi – 39.75
*Darren Collison – 21.75
*Derrick Favors – 32.5
*Meyers Leonard – 18.5
This LU scored a whopping 181.00 points. OUCH! I will first look at what went “right”. Mahinmi was a great value pick who scored over 6x. Portland’s bigs haven’t been anything special this year and I expected him to easily get 5x value so I could pay up elsewhere. I consider Collison’s 21.75 a success as well since he scored basically 5x which is what I am looking for in all my picks. Durant was a toss up. He was under 5x value and shot the ball terrible along with 5 TOs really hurt his output for the evening. Looking back I should have paid up elsewhere for a stud considering Miami is a pretty good defensive team. I have just recently started considering player vs player match ups in my picks. There are numerous bad picks to examine from this LU. Looking back at my pick of Booker I never would have projected him at only 15 minutes with Gobert out. I did all the research and it pointed to him being a good value play at only $4,000 and it was a big swing and a miss. My thoughts on picking Rondo were pretty simple. He plays tons of minutes, and had been over 40 points 9 of the past 11 games. If you throw out the GS game(to be expected) he had been extremely consistent. I never would have guessed he would only play 24 minutes. I chalk that pick up to an outlier as well and nothing I missed in my research. Monta Ellis was my last pick that was a big miss. Again I will chalk that up to an outlier as he got hurt and only played 18 minutes in the game. Overall I feel my research led me to some good picks, but I got caught by the minute and injury bugs. I learned a few things from this LU which I have been using since this day.
I am little late on getting this published for week 2, but I can give you a little teaser into what has happened so far in week 3. One word, SUCCESS! I have decided to move from DK to FD and have been applying my ever changing LU building strategy to optimize my success. Come back next week to hear about how this strategy has led me to find some success. Hopefully this time next week I can describe week 3 with the same word!