Finding Paydirt: Week 10
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Touchdowns, while extremely variant, can make or break DFS success. Every weekend, players wait anxiously for the players on their roster to find pay dirt. Touchdowns swing thousands of dollars every Sunday. The purpose of the article is to mine our own paydirt by finding valuable touchdowns from value players.
Happy Friday, Grinders! The third contest commenced last week, with several RotoGrinders members bringing the fire in the form of four touchdowns. Pricing, bye weeks, and primetime games will have a massive impact on our selections this week though. Will our leaders continue to gather valuable scores? Before we delve into my selections for the week, take a peek at the Week 9 Results to see where you stand on our leaderboard.
Very simple. Each week, I will publish this article by Friday morning detailing my picks for running back, wide receiver, and tight end touchdowns for the DraftKings main slate. You can jump into the contest by picking a RB, WR, and TE from the main slate that you believe will score a touchdown this Sunday. Make you selections in a comment below. The only caveat? I eliminate the top five priced running backs, the top five wide receivers, and the top three tight ends from the player pool.
I will write an article summing up the slate and updating the standings by Tuesday of each week. After four weeks, the player with the most touchdowns will be declared our victor and win a RotoGrinders T-shirt. Currently, we are amidst our Weeks 9-12 contest.
Below, you will find a table outlining the unavailable players for the DraftKings main slate due to their pricing. We might find picking players to score touchdowns especially difficult given the lack of depth at each position this week. With stars such as Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley due to primetime games, many players are appearing in our table for the first time. Tyler Boyd, O.J. Howard, Tyreek Hill, and Joe Mixon normally would not be expensive enough to warrant an exception. Yet, this is the hand we are dealt.
Please remember… You may not pick a player from the following table or any player that is not playing on the DraftKings main slate.
The following are my three picks for touchdowns at our targeted positions.
Tevin Coleman – RB – $6,000
Nothing would make me happier this week then selecting Kareem Hunt in a dream spot versus the Arizona Cardinals at home. Alas, Hunt is rightfully priced up as a 16.5-point favorite in Arrowhead. Due to the fact that I will not go back to Adrian Peterson, I landed on (gasps)… Tevin Coleman.
Tevin Coleman unquestionably resides in a committee with Ito Smith soaking up usage and snaps. That said, Coleman does have some points in his favor. For one, in a blowout script last week against the Redskins, Coleman out snapped Ito Smith 57% to 41%. Sure, pessimists would argue that snap-share is not a strong point in favor of Coleman. Yet, my half-full glass tells me that at least Coleman is getting the edge when the Falcons lay the smack down on an opposing team.
While Smith takes the edge in red zone rushing, Coleman is undeniably the preferred receiver in the Falcons backfield. Coleman has amassed seven red zone targets thus far and three receiving touchdowns in the scoring area. Additionally, his eight red zone rushing attempts are dwarfed by Ito, but they still provide some floor for opportunities if the Falcons offense is efficient.
The Falcons offense should be efficient. The Browns are gassed. The Browns number of snaps on defense is astounding and the injuries are beginning to arise. With rookie sensation Denzel Ward very questionable for the game, the Falcons should be facing a team struggling to stay off the field on defense and stop opposing offenses. Over the last four weeks, here are the per game numbers of opposing backfields versus the Browns: 38.08 DraftKings points, 2.00 rushing touchdowns, and 128.25 rushing yards. Splitting those numbers in half for Coleman could yield a pretty strong performance. Sign me up!
Jarvis Landry – WR – $6,200
Speaking of players that bring us anxiety, enter Jarvis Landry. Landry could potentially be the biggest DFS heartbreaker this season, boasting usage numbers that make DFS players salivate and results that make DFS hyperventilate. How many times have you clicked on Jarvis Landry thinking that this has to be the week?
This has to be the week!
Landry’s usage is hardly rivaled by anyone in the NFL at the wide receiver position. His 100 targets (1st) and 14 red zone targets (t-3rd) illustrate his place in the Cleveland pecking order. That said, his catch rate (55%) and Baker’s accuracy issues bring to mind images of a trebuchet launching rocks at groups of medieval military units hoping to just hit one.
Luckily, the Falcons are so debilitated in the middle of the field that Landry should have plenty of room to operate and convert a better percentage of his abundance of targets. The Falcons rank 25th and 28th against the WR2 and WR3 position. Landry is not your traditional “x” receiver and should be able to get open against a depleted Falcons’ defense.
This is the week… Right?
Jordan Reed – TE – $4,400
Please give me a moment. I am going to put a blindfold on. Okay. Now, tell me, who are the Redskins playing this week? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Yep. Jordan Reed, please.
This selection falls into a similar category that Michael Thomas fell into last week. Michael Thomas was so underpriced in a winnable matchup that he needed to be in every lineup I built. I don’t think putting Reed in every lineup is appropriate, but the matchup versus the Bucs is plainly the easiest matchup to target for tight ends.
The Redskins continue to get decimated by injuries. We are approaching the point that Alex Smith will have nobody else to throw the ball to in the red zone. I mean, to be frank, it truly makes no sense. If I told you that the Redskins would be completely crippled with injuries on the offensive side of the football in 2018, you would assume that Jordan Reed was on the IR. Consequently, he is perfectly healthy! Maybe, I am being too optimistic today. Maybe, I continue to have faith. Maybe, I should stop running my head into a wall. Well, this isn’t the week.
This is not the week because the Buccaneers are bad. This is not the week because, for some reason, the Buccaneers are favorites at home against the Redskins. Are the Redskins going to be forced to throw the ball against this defense? The Bucs are 29th in DVOA versus TE and are yielding 18.25 DraftKings points to the position per game. Allowing 7.88 targets per game for 6 receptions is not good, is it? We land on another “don’t overthink this” spot for me. Jordan Reed it is.
Will Alex Smith throw the ball to his best weapon? Can Jarvis Landry finally convert for a big game? Will our leaders continue to pile up touchdowns? All of these questions will be answered on Tuesday with my results article. Until then, good luck and happy mining!
Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Pro Football Reference, and Football Outsiders.