Finding the Balance: Week 12
Wondering why this year’s challenge looks so different from the past? Read here for the full explanation!
Sunday, December 30th, 2018
The night started off on a real high note when I had planned the Derrick Henry fade alllll week long on the Showdown Slate only to have him find my way in there anyway, which was cool, and then I fell for the Lillard versus Simmons trap on DK, which doomed that one in a hurry (unless, of course, you like lineups that score 210 points). On Yahoo, however, I was $1 short of the lineup I really wanted and ended up paying up for McCollum when I really wanted Hart but, what do you know, it actually worked!
Nice start to the week…but man, tomorrow’s slate looks tricky. The good news about tricky slates, however, is that they’re tricky for everybody, so it’s always an even playing field…
Monday, December 31st, 2018
Well, New Year’s Eve day started a bit rough with my wife waking up feeling worse than ever, heading to the doctor, and being diagnosed with Influenza A…. and then, just for peace of mind, we took my oldest, who has been a bit rough lately. Sure enough, he’s got it too…. which probably means our 20 month old does. But, he actually seemed to be feeling pretty well, so we just let him stay home, where my wife spent most of the day trying to sleep (as much as you can in a house with two small boys, anyway) and I just tried to stop the house from getting lit on fire. Mission accomplished.
DFS wise, as I stated yesterday, the slate felt very challenging to me. But then, as I sifted through risk-reward, it felt like Tyus was a no-brainer (and even if he sucks, he’ll be so heavily owned it won’t matter much), and I feel like Mikal Bridges salary doesn’t quite meet his recent stretch of play (and minute safety once Ariza left town). Then, I’m going near full-fade on the studs with no Brow, Westbrook, or Durant, with only a little bit of Curry. But, I will go all-in on Towns and Randle, along with Ayton (strengthened by no Holmes), Wiggins and Warren. The lineups didn’t exactly make me feel safe, but when Brow decided to start his New Year’s celebration one minute before tipoff, I felt a little better, especially after looking at the field and seeing he was about 35% owned. Then, it was just a matter of having my guys not flop… and honestly, Bridges kind of did but he was highly owned and, other than Klay, things went fairly well on Yahoo:
…and very well on DK (even with Looney and Bridges, somehow):
And with that, it’s about 10:45 pm and I’ve been the only one up for the last hour, so I guess I’ll just hit the hay and rest of for what will surely be an “exciting” day tomorrow!
Tuesday, January 1st, 2019
Happy New Year, everyone!
Don’t know about you guys, but I was just getting used to writing “2018” on things, so I can’t wait to put the wrong year on things for the next ten months or so! Also, I’m beginning to get a bit stir-crazy around here, as my 20 month old now has a fever, too. We did a little bit of investigating and, out of the last eight days of daycare (so 16 total opportunities), my youngest has gone twice and my oldest has gone once. Love flushing that daycare money down the toilet! Sadly, I’m sure a lot of you can relate…
But enough of that business, on to the DFS. I had a lot of trouble with this little slate for some reason on DK. Yahoo came together pretty easily, with leaving myself some breathing room to swap Gallo to Butler if Embiid sits, but DK was a bit tricky…. until it wasn’t. Though Nurk was the obvious choice (and I’m leaving him on Yahoo because of that), WCS actually fared pretty well against him last year and is at home, and his salary made it so that I didn’t have to spend on Harkless, who generally gives me about a 4-1-1 game whenever I’ve been forced to roster him (and I’m talking pretty much his whole career, so it’s not a small sample size). Other than that, having to rely on two SG’s in Redick and Bogdonovic wasn’t a great feeling, but they were priced right and, as well as I’ve been playing, I figured why not? Obviously the Nurk fade didn’t turn out too well on DK, but, even though the lineup was by no means great, having an extra 30 minutes of OT on Yahoo (along with Nurk’s monster game) wasn’t too shabby:
…but here’s where things get interesting. Like a lot of people, I did what you’re not supposed to do and, out of frustration with how my lineups were performing (remember, other than Nurk, I didn’t have anybody who showed up in the first half of the Blazers/Kings game), I tossed in a showdown slate on FD, and it actually cashed:
…and did the same thing on DK and, um, yeah, you could say it cashed as well:
On the one hand, I could sit here and whine that I just did $1 instead of my typical $4… but can I really get that greedy when I was really just tossing in a buck so I’d have some skin in the game? I think that might be my highest GPP finish ever, honestly. I mean, shoot, I was less than three points away from straight up winning the thing! Happy New Year, indeed!
Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019
Amazingly, my youngest tested negative for both influenza and RSV, so he, along with me, will be on preventative tamiflu (while my wife and other son are on the full dose) for the next ten days, and, hopefully by then (which will be right around his baptism), we’ll all be healthy! Of course, we just got a notice from his daycare that someone in his class had lice, so…
Anyway, tonight was a bit tricky in that lineup construction really couldn’t happen until we knew the Embiid news, as I actually liked him over Westbrook at a cheaper salary (not much on Yahoo but definitely enough to make a difference on DK). I decided that McConnell, Furkan, Booker (who dominated in this matchup earlier this year) and Hart were going to be in there regardless, and then it was just making things work around them. I actually had a feeling that it would be more the PG13 show in LA than Westbrook, as I’ve been doing this long enough to have seen some pretty rough Westbrook games in LA (despite him going to UCLA), and I was able to squeeze him in on DK too if I went with dirt-cheap Bolden. I didn’t love my Yahoo lineup as I kind of ran out of time before I really had a lineup I loved, and the night was a little bit annoying because I had Warren and his four first half fouls (who I was trying to make PG13 when I ran out of time) along with Kuzma and his 16 minutes of PT, which meant it was just going to become survival with only Hart going in the late game, despite a massive (and incredibly low-owned) performance by Embiid along with a solid showing from Booker. On DK, I could climb a bit if PG13 (who also was in foul trouble), Hart and Ingram (how many times do you see him in my lineups?) could come through, and they all did, leading to yet another profitable night on DK:
….and yes, I barely managed to survive on Yahoo, no thanks to Warren and Kuzma combining for a $57 salary 21.1 fantasy points. Thanks, guys! But, that’s the thing about DFS: I had neither of them on DK, while others did, so it probably ended up being more or less a wash.
Thursday, January 3rd, 2019
This slate was tricky. Normally, with his bloated price point (especiallly on Yahoo), this would be a classic fade-Harden kind of night…. but, with the way he’s been playing lately, I can’t find a way to do it. Luckily, I don’t really like a lot of the mid-priced guys (or, really, many of the high-priced guys), so I’m going value-type of Shumpert, House and Tucker, and then, on Yahoo, Jokic and Murray, and, on DK, Fox and Capela. Basically, I should have myself covered tonight one one sight and be hosed on the other… unless, of course, Shumpert pulls a vanishing act, which is always a possibility, in which I’d be 100% hosed. As it turned out, Shump did indeed take a dump but Murray and Jokic were enough to push me over the top on Yahoo. The annoying thing was that, had I just gone with Looney instead of Shumpert like I had originally planed on DK, I still would have been able to minimum cash. This is kind of those “no-duh” in hindsight thing that I really should have seen but for some reason could not, but it happens and the important part is to realize it and do your best to prevent it in the future!
Friday, January 4th, 2019
Back to work today meant I didn’t have all day to fart around on my computer like I did the last few weeks (lol yeah right like that happened with everybody home and sick), and I was also carrying a whopping seven game win-streak on Yahoo’s full slate, but I couldn’t really do anything until I knew if Rubio was going to play or not. Once he was in, I could get to work. Rozier, Hart and Ingram went in right away, and then Ayton and his hot-streak. After that, it was just trying to find guys with decent upside, so I went with Warren on a bounce-back, Tobias, and then Knox.
Um…. it’s official: The dream has ended. Yuck! But, after that massive run that saw me profit on eight straight nights, it had to end sometime… but what a glorious end that was!
Saturday, January 5th, 2019
For the first time since Christmas, everyone was feeling somewhat normal, so we had a nice family night and I didn’t put much time into DFS, honestly. I was able to win some of my money back on DK but wasn’t quite able to capitalize on the DK Harden fade since I had Fox, which was really too bad since I was all over the Evan Turner value play as well as WCS.
Finding the Balance
I can’t remember a time where I ran as hot as I did on both DK and Yahoo this week (last two nights excluded, obviously). It’s times like that where I often ask myself, “What if I just bumped up the bankroll a little bit more?” But then I just realize that New Year’s Eve’s Brow DNP could just have easily went the other way, and I’m reminded that I’m currently at the peak of my risk-reward threshold, and I’m good. I can’t even imagine what that night felt like for you high-rollers! The good news is, running hot coincided with about 50 doctor’s appointments as well as a ridiculous amount of pharmacy visits, so at least it can help put a little dent in those bills….
Hopefully the start to 2019 has been kind to you, and see you next week, where we do our best to balance our lives and DFS!