Game Theory Decisions; Building your Research Process
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I’ve received a lot of questions about my research process and I thought this short slate would be the perfect opportunity to tackle this subject. My process might not fit your style and it probably isn’t the best; but it’s easy and I know it inside and out. My recommendation is to build your own research process and stick to it; results will come in time. If they don’t; then review your process to see if any adjustments need to be made.
Game matchups, sides, and totals review
What stands out to me; these games have nice totals to target and no one is favored by 10 or more (at the moment). My concern with large spreads is some blowout risk; I tend to take this game by game, I don’t have a set rule on this matter.
Timberwolves at Magic; Nikola Vucevic still OUT
Pelicans at Celtics; no significant injuries to mention
Mavericks at Nuggets; Barea, Finney-Smith, Seth Curry all OUT – *This information is relevant; with Barea out, minutes should increase for Yogi and DSJ. Something to make note of and evaluate later.
Suns at Blazers; Chriss – Doubtful, Josh Jackson & TJ Warren Questionable. Shabazz Napier Questionable. J Jackson & TJ’s situation is one we should monitor throughout the day.
Thoughts so far
1. We have high total games and fairly close spreads; thus far, we can find fantasy production in any of these matchups.
2. With Barea out, we need to highlight Yogi and DSJ and review CourtIQ and gameflows to see who gets the biggest boost.
Pace of Play & DvP Matchups
So, if a game has a high total, does it mean it’s a good game to target? Well, that depends. If the Warriors played the Celtics and the total was set at say. . . 210, that’s a high total, but incredibly low relative to their season average. For today’s slate; Celtics get a nice pace bump with a projected point total 6.3pts above their season average. Timberwolves, and once vegas releases totals, the Blazers will also receive pace bumps.
Timberwolves; we can attack the magic at any position. I like to focus on overall usage and FP/min figures in this type of situation.
Celtics; we can attack the Pelican’s from any position. In my opinion, the current DvP numbers to not accurately portray the PG spot (Rondo defense). Rondo is a guy we can feel very good about attacking.
Blazers; we can attack the suns at any position. Lillard, CJM, and Nurk will be where I focus my attention.
Nuggets; we can attack the Mav’s at the PG and Center positions.
Mavericks; we can attack Denver at the PG and PF positions.
Pelicans; depending on price, this might be a fade spot. Center is circled in yellow as Boogie could be a contrarian play.
Magic; we can attack the Timberwolves at the Center spot.
Suns; we can attack Portland with high usage wings.
Building a player pool & price interpretation
Damian Lillard, 9,300 FD/DK, -*Elite Matchup, High Usage, High FP/min, High MPG*
Kyrie Irving, 8,500 DK, 8,200 FD, -*Elite matchup, high usage, high FP/min, shot dependent, avg MPG*
Elfrid Payton, 6,500 DK, 7,200 FD, Significant usage bump with Vucevic off the court, volatile minutes, volatile FP/min rage – Deep field GPP target
Jeff Teague, 6,400 DK, 6,900 FD, Elite matchup, low usage, average at best FP/min – deep field GPP target
Dennis Smith, 6,300 DK, 6,500 FD, Elite matchup (guards vs Den), Usage/min bump (potentially) with Barea OUT
Jamal Murray, 5,700 DK, 6,700 FD, Elite matchup, distressed price due to recent box scores and performances – Elite GPP candidate due to negative recency bias
Rajon Rondo, 5,000 DK, 5,500 FD, Volatile minutes, peripheral driven fantasy points. Revenge Factor
Jimmy Butler, 9,200 DK, 9,400 FD, obviously a good “real life play”, I think Jimmy will be very popular tonight, and at his price he is firmly on my fade radar. This would be an ownership-game theory driven decision. (This thinking is for DK only)
Devin Booker, 8,000 DK, 7,800 FD, Elite price when compared to the DvP matchup and his overall usage. He is firmly on my radar.
CJ McCollum, 7,700 DK, 8,200 FD, Elite matchup but he is priced up. Not going to force CJM into any lineups tonight.
Jaylen Brown, 5,900 DK, 5,500 FD, -Not a guy I’ve really targeted all year. The matchup is good on paper. Most likely a minimal exposure guy for me.
Evan Fournier, 5,100 DK, 5,400 FD – his price is elite
Yogi Ferrell, 4,500 DK, 5,300 FD, Most likely a lock button type of play Yogi will be popular, but his price has yet to catch up with him on DK. His recent performance is with Barea healthy. I’m going to assume his high minutes role will continue tonight.
TJ Warren, 6,400 DK, 6,800 FD, Questionable If he is upgraded, TJ makes for a very intriguing play in a mini game stack. If he is ruled out, Dragan Bender is interesting in GPPs. He played 30 minutes against the pacers and was ice cold. Make’s for a nice GPP target.
Andrew Wiggins, 6,100 DK, 6,500 FD, Elite matchup, High minutes, below average usage and FP/min numbers. He is “safe” due to his minutes.
Jayson Tatum, 5,800 DK, 5,600 FD, Tatum has one of the best DvP matchups on paper. He also appears to have more upside than Brown. Although, my preferred target from the Celtics is Kyrie.
Jonathon Simmons, 4,900 DK, 4,700 FD, if he is matched up with Butler, his price is the only thing that makes him attractive.
Wesley Matthews, 4,800 DK, 5,200 FD, Minutes upgrade (most likely) with Barea out
Evan Turner, 4,100 DK/FD – Hit or miss type of guy, at 4,100 you can roster him as a punt play.
Aaron Gordon, 7,600 DK, 7,500 FD
Al Horford, 7,400 DK, 7,100 FD,
Harrison Barnes, 6,800 DK/FD,
Taj Gibson, 5,400 DK, 5,600 FD,
Al-Farouq Aminu, 4,700 DK, 5,500 FD
Dragan Bender, 4,600 DK, 4,800 FD,
Long story short, the power forward is an ugly position tonight. That being said, I think Aaron Gordon makes for an intriguing tournament play. We have yet to see an elite type of game from him with Vucevic out.
DeMarcus Cousins, 10,500 DK, 11,200 FD, Highest price, tough matchup, pace down game Cousins is a deep GPP play for me.
Karl-Anthony Towns, 9,500 DK/FD, Elite matchup and play all around I’d prefer going with Towns over Jimmy b
Nikola Jokic, 8,700 DK, 9,700 FD, Probably my favorite Center play on the board , Centers vs the Mav’s has been a successful theme all season. Jokic also has triple double & blocks/steals upside.
Jusuf Nurkic, 6,700 DK, 7,000 FD, GPP type of play
Bismack Biyombo, 5,600 DK, 6,400 FD – Should have to play lots of minutes to matchup with Towns. Biyombo has double double & blocks/steals upside.
Will Barton, 5,600 DK & 6,500 FD – Price driven GPP play for me. Barton carries massive upside at his price.
Marcus Morris, 4,500 DK & 4,700 FD – His minutes are trending back up to that 23-26 range. I’ll have some exposure since I’m multi entering tonight.
Best positions to load up on tonight; Guards and Centers
Other thoughts; Timberwolves deploy a rotation that we all absolutely love in DFS. They play their starters maximum minutes. The magic starters prices are also undervalued given the situation they are in. . . this is due to poor recent performances. If Orlando can keep this game close, I think it is very interesting for fantasy production.
Regarding the Blazers vs Suns matchup; I think if TJ Warren is active, this game becomes more interesting. If he is out, you could target it as a mini game stack with DEV + players from the Blazers… Obviously Dev will play a huge role in keeping this one close. Otherwise, we have some true blowout risk with this game.
Edit / Update Chriss and TJ Warren were ruled OUT
Josh Jackson, Dragan Bender are value spots we can target. Devin Booker is the guy who should see the largest usage bump. My thought is we target Booker if we think this game can stay close.
DK GPP Templates
Build pros; max guard & top tier center exposure, PG/C vs DAL, PG vs Den, C vs ORL
Ideas; could finish off with F’s from boston (pace up spot) or mini game stacks from ORL/DAL, or F exposure from the Suns (depending on their injury situation)
Negatives; This build fades the high priced, elite guards on this slate.
I’m mutli entering the $10 on DK today, I’ll post my highest owned players in my update.
Update to follow
As always, best of luck