Game Theory Decisions; Tournament Template

Game Theory Decisions; Tournament Template

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Monday, January 8, 2018 – NBA Slate

We have an eight-game slate to break down tonight. With NFL coming to an end; these NBA fields are only going to get sharper. I think bankroll management, chalky ownership pivots, roster construction, and interpreting injury news correctly is going to be vital to your success moving forward.

Tonight, we already have many games with high totals posted. We all know the Nuggets/Warriors game will also carry a high total. That is six on paper spots to attack. Hopefully this spreads out ownership a bit and hopefully we are very concentrated on the right plays.

DvP Matchups

Best games to target on paper (lots of them, ha!);
Rockets AT Bulls
Raptors AT Nets
Nuggets AT Warriors
Hawks AT Clippers
Bucks AT Pacers
Cavaliers AT Timberwolves
Spurs AT Kings – potential value spot

Relevant injury news/situations
DeMarre Caroll is OUT & Caris LeVert is probable
Nikola Mirotic is doubtful – Significant upgrades to Lauri & Bobby
Nene Hilario is still out – We can predict Houston will go with a small ball approach again
Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green are all out AND the spurs are on a B2B – proceed with caution
Kevin DurantOUTCurry is very much in play tonight
George Hill & Frank Mason are OUT – Fox is in play
Blake GriffinOUT

Bold call of the day; Rockets at Bulls game wins someone a GPP today. This is the game I want to fully understand.

Houston Rockets without Harden

The Rockets have played three full games without their all-star James Harden. Obviously, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, and Clint Capela have seen the largest usage bumps. However, we have yet to see an elite game from CP3 or elite minutes from Capela. Matchups aside; Mike D’Antoni appears to prefer a small-ball approach, which has limited Capela to 23-27 minutes in these three games. In my opinion, this small-ball approach increases pace and creates matchup opportunities we can take advantage of.

Against the Warriors; this small-ball approach led to a great matchup spot for Draymond who finished with a 17/14/10 line.

Against the Pistons; this small-ball approach led to a great matchup spot for Tobias who finished with a 27/8/1 line. *Due note, Drum was ruled out in this game. Another thing to note, Gerald green wasn’t as efficient and Capela saw a minute’s uptick.

Rockets usage – CourtIQ

The best players to target on the Rockets is Chris Paul and Eric Gordon. Much of “(player-popup #eric-gordon)Eric Gordon”:/players/eric-gordon-1077’s usage depends on if his shot is falling. For example; he was very efficient vs GSW resulting in 21 FGA’s 10 of which were 3PA’s. The downside to the Rockets is DK has done a very good job at adjusting their prices. One way we can target this game is to take advantage of Houston’s small-ball lineup and pace by rostering a few Chicago players.

Update; Mirotic is doubtful for this game

Tournament pairings & ideas;
Chris Paul + Eric Gordon + Lauri Markkanen + Kris Dunn
Lauri Markkanen + Bobby Portis + Eric Gordon

If you want exposure to some other studs on the slate; I still think getting value from this game will be crucial. Justin Holiday, Bobby Portis, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn are all firmly in play.

Golden State Warriors without Durant

I should be able to post one image that captivates everything that needs to be said for this situation.

Curry, 40% Usage rate, 1.80 FP/min.

“Hey AP, who would you pick, Curry or CP3”

Curry

“Hey AP, who would you pick,

Curry

“Hey AP,

Curry

When anyone talks tonight, or asks a question about anything, my response will probably be Curry. Lmao. Seriously though, the matchup is elite as it can get. Sure, the game could definitely get out of hand, but even in that situation I see Curry getting you 5x.

Here’s my problem; CP3 also has an elite matchup & arguably has more peripheral / triple double upside. So, as much as I love Curry, I do think CP3 is a very fine play, and probably the better tournament play if Curry happens to be chalk.

Here’s the other problem; What about Bron, Giannis, Brow, Boogie, Towns, DeRozan, Oladipo, Sweet Lou, etc?

This is where I’ll heavily weight price, matchups, and injury situational usage shifts (made up term/phrase, sounds pretty cool though).

Stephen Curry – Durant out (injury usage bump) + Matchup vs Denver (elite)
CP3 – Harden out (injury usage bump) + Matchup vs Bulls (elite)
Lou Williams – Griffin + others out (usage bump) + Matchup vs Hawks (elite vs guard). . . You could also add DeAndre Jordan to this list. He could snag 20 rebounds tonight vs the Hawks.

Oladipo – I was all over him in his return and he did not disappoint. I’m wondering if this will make him popular against the Bucks. I know “wings vs the bucks is a theme” but avoiding a chalky shooting dependent player is also a theme. Currently, I’d rather spend up to Curry or CP3.

Tournament Templates

initial build
PG – Stephen Curry
SG – Jamal Murray
C – Bobby Portis
G – Eric Gordon

I’ll have a few templates to post. . . Currently, I’m just putting in 40-50 entries into the $10, 100k to first on DK.

Update to come around 5pm central

Comments

  • SNMC

    Anything FD you’re looking at? Different builds

  • sanders_tj

    Sam Dekker is exploding out of my model…..

    lol thoughts?

  • apeterson8809

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    @SNMC said...

    Anything FD you’re looking at? Different builds

    I’ll post my FD thoughts when I update this. I haven’t taken down a GPP on FD, still getting use to their scoring structure

  • apeterson8809

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    @sanders_tj said...

    Sam Dekker is exploding out of my model…..

    lol thoughts?

    Not sure I can dig that deep… even if the minutes are there. As a deep deep deep value GPP play, maybe

  • Benf15harp

    Also curry is at his highest price of the season only reached 5x this price 2 times this season in 28 games however those 2 came in the 7 games played without KD. Around 27.5% chance to exceed 5x

  • jtkucheck

    I kinda like Trey Lyles instead of Murray… Dubs lose an elite shotblocker without Durant, and Iguodala goes to the first unit so won’t be matched up with Lyles much. He’ll likely see Casspi/”(player-popup #david-west)David West”:/players/david-west-1345 which are probably both plus match-ups for him. And he’s cheaper and doesn’t take up a Guard spot.

  • bods72

    Just finished one of my builds with Curry. Ran it back with Joker, sprinkled in some Tristan Thompson. I think 6x for Tristan is his floor tonight.

  • walterwhite

    fill out a lineup with steph curry greek freak and kat. I think portis and vince carter are useable at their price point. Who are the others?

  • apeterson8809

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    Damn, wasn’t able to post a pre-lock update. Good luck to everyone tonight, should be an interesting slate.

  • Boomtown25

    I am definitely learning and loving your blogs here. I have another question: I see your second screen shot where you have various DVP matchups highlighted in Green, yellow, orange and red. Obviously these colors make sense without asking, but my gut always says “look for blue/blue dvp and efficiency columns first, then look for blue/green columns next.” I see where you have completely ignored some of the blue/blue positions on teams and in fact have some yellow/green positions highlighted. Why? Is this simply because you favor (or dislike) the particular player who that is representing? For instance in the article above: Raptors Center (Valencunias) had a blue/blue matchup but you did not highlight him with green, and then Hawks PG (German Chocolate) had a green/yellow and you had it highlighted. Just wanting to learn what to look for….

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