Gettin' Jiggy wit DFS
Mavericks at Thunder
Game Total 197.5
Thunder favored by 9
Mavericks paced way up
Mavericks projected to score 2.5 below their season average
Thunder projected to score 3 below their season average
This game is a tough one to break down because the Mavericks are sitting most of their key players (Dirk, Deron, Wesley) which leaves a lot of value and less talented players to keep up with Westbrook so this could turn into a blow out. That said they’re still NBA players and it’s not like the Thunder outside or Westbrook, Oladipo, Adams and I guess Kanter are all that talented either. Another problem is how slow this game will be and the Game total being below 200 with both teams projected to score below their season average.
Russell Westbrook should be a fine option if you have the money to pay the whopping $12,700 for him. He failed to reach value last night but still got to 50 so he wasn’t a major disappointment. He’ll need nearly 65 FPTs to get value tonight but it’s a short slate and I always hear people say raw points are a thing on short slates and he gives you the most guaranteed raw points. It’ll all be about roster construction whether you get to him or not but with the Mavs value it shouldn’t be an issue if you want to go there. His usage is a ridiculous 42.1, and the Mavs have been the best team vs the PG this season (more from their pace than any individual player). RG is projecting Devin Harris as the starting PG and his DRPM is -1.44. For what it’s worth they’re also announcing the all-star reserves before this game which Westbrook will be 1 of them but you have to think he’s still a little bitter about not being a starter.
I’m not considering Oladipo considering the pace and projected totals here, I’d rather just pay up for Westbrook.
Steven Adams is interesting. The Mavs are terrible at rebounding (The Thunder have a rebounding rate 6 higher than the Mavs) so I feel pretty safe with the big man tonight who dominated last night. He doesn’t have the best usage at 16.8 but like I said the rebounds should be there tonight. Bogut is a very good defender but he hasn’t been playing much more than 20 minutes so Adams will have plenty of time without Bogut there.
I’m not considering Enes Kanter for the price he’s at in this matchup.
On the Mavs side take your pick for value.
Devin Harris is projected to start and can be considered since he’s the minimum at $3,500. His usage is 18.1 and should see a nice increase in minutes and the Thunder give up a lot of FPTs to PGs.
Seth Curry should be popular tonight, he sees and big increase in usage without those guys and he’s still cheap at $4,100 at generally tough position, SG. Oladipo is a solid defender (.36 DRPM) and the Thunder have been stingy vs SGs all season but it’s hard not to see Curry getting to value here. He’s been getting near his current prices 5X value lately even before the major increase.
Dorian Finney-Smith is projected start and plays a lot of minutes already and does nothing with them failing to reach 20 FPTs in his last 2 games both of which he played 30+ minutes. His usage doesn’t change much with those guys off the court either so I don’t see much of a bump for him.
Harrison Barnes should be very safe tonight and popular. He sees a 7 point increase in usage and his price is fine at $6,200. He’s projected to start at PF which would have Sabonis on him who is a fine defender but I’m not very worried, the Thunder have been below average vs the PF all season.
I’m not seeing the need to take a chance on Bogut tonight with the rest of the Mavs cheap and I feel they have more upside. His usage is 10.2 on the season.
Justin Anderson sees a 5 point increase in usage and has gone for 20+ FPTs in each of the last 2 games in 20 or less minutes and I’d expect him to see an increase. He feel pretty safe at $3,700 too.
Dwight Powell can also be looked at as a cheap PF, he sees a nice bump in usage without those guys and is below $4,000. I feel safer with Favors for a little more $ but if you can’t get to him Powell should be fine.
The Mavs are going to lead to a stars and scrubs approach tonight so choosing the right Mavs will be key.
Pacers at Timberwolves
Game Total 212
Timberwolves favored by 3.5
Timberwolves paced up
Pacers projected to score 1 point below their season average
Timberwolves projected to score 4 points above their season average
That’s a much nicer game total and this game is projected to be close.
First thing I noticed is CJ Miles is still $3,500 after starting on Monday and playing 34 minutes. He played 28 minutes in the game before that. I love him for GPPs tonight. His usage isn’t the best at 19.7 but for $3,500 I wouldn’t expect it to be high and Paul George was dominating the last game from what I remember so if that doesn’t happen look for CJ to score more. “(player-popup)Zach LaVine”:/players/zach-lavine-18622’s DRPM is an ugly -3.31 also.
“(player-popup)Jeff Teague”:/players/jeff-teague-1005’s price is coming down a little but I’m still not sure this is the spot to jump back on. The Wolves have been average vs the PG this season and Rubio has a solid DRPM of 4.11, plus the pace is down for the Pacers.
Paul George put up 44.9 FPTs against the Knicks on Monday and he leads the Pacers in usage at 27.5. I feel safer with him than Teague for similar prices. The Wolves have been good vs the SF this season but Wiggins DRPM of -2.02 says that’s not a big deal.
Thad Young used to be a favorite player of mine on the Sixers but those days are long past. He’s been pretty consistent lately going for 19.1-35.6 over the last 5 and at $5,600 19.1 won’t sink you even if it’s not good. The problem for me with him is his usage of 16.4 and his matchup with Dieng whose DRPM of 3.1 is very good. I think I’d rather just take a chance on Dieng on the other side for the same price.
Myles Turner is a beast but is still very inconsistent with 3 games in the 25 FPT range and 2 near 40 of the last 5. He should be needed to guard KAT which AL Jefferson will certainly not be able to do so as long as he’s not in foul trouble his minutes should be there. His usage is also 21.2 which isn’t bad for a C. GPP only for me though.
Ricky Rubio has been playing pretty good lately besides whatever happened to him in the Clippers game. He actually looks like he is scoring more these days, not anything crazy but when you add some extra points to his usually good peripherals you’re in business. His price and inconsistent past have me scared so I probably won’t use him but they’re paced up which favors point guards. Teague’s DRPM of -.21 isn’t bad for PG and the Pacers have been average vs PGs this season.
Zach LaVine hasn’t made value since returning from injury and I’ve been burned by him twice at least so this could be your time to jump on because I’ve decided to wait until he shows more. This is a good matchup, the Pacers have been well below average vs the SG and C.J. Miles isn’t a good defender.
Wiggins’ price seems very expensive to me especially going up against Paul George who I consider a good defender even if the DRPM says otherwise (-.3). Wiggin’s usage is a solid 27.8 (leads the Wolves by a small margin). He’s been playing well lately going for 34.6+ in 4 of the last 5 and playing 38+ minutes in all 5 (his down game was VERY down 17.1). He feels ok here but I feel safer with Barnes at his price than Wiggins at his and like the value guys at SF so I doubt I wind up with Wiggins.
Gorgui Dieng never sees his price move much because he goes for 30+ as much as he goes for 20 it seems so you just need to guess right on him. His usage isn’t very pretty at 15 but he has a nice matchup here with the Pacers being 6th worst vs the PF even though Harry B is a good defender with a DRPM of 1.83. I don’t mind taking a shot on Dieng in a GPP ever but especially in a good matchup. His minutes are the least safe of the starters it seems too.
KAT is priced way up to an amount that if this was a bigger slate I probably wouldn’t consider him but with 4 games you have to and he’s in a good matchup. His usage is 27.2 and the PAcers have been 9th worst vs the C on the season. The Pacers are also a terrible rebounding team so KAT should be able to pull down some extra rebounds (this goes for Dieng too). Center is loaded tonight and I could see myself playing any of the top 5 really so I will probably just see who fits.
Suns at Nuggets
Game Total 231
Nuggets favored by 7
Suns are projected to score 6 more points than their season average
Nuggets are projected to score 9 more points than their season average
Play Nikola Jokic tonight. The Nuggets are projected to score 9 more points than usual and he is the most likely beneficiary. He is also the highest priced PF by a mile and just about all of the other ones on this slate are risky which makes me very willing to just pay his price in a great matchup and move on.
Jameer Nelson could be the forgot value (I haven’t looked at any ownership %s) tonight with everyone figuring out the Mavs but Jameer is still under $4,000 and the matchup is ideal for PGs here, though Bledsoe isn’t the worst PG defender with a DRPM of -.75 he’s by no means someone to fear and the pace of this game should be great for Jameer. Jamal Murray might be the more exciting guy but Nelson is safer.
Gary Harris is also in a good spot and seems still underpriced at $4,800. He had a rough outing last game but that was vs the Jazz so I’m willing to overlook that. His usage is 18.9 and “(player-popup)Devin Booker”:/players/devin-booker-18949’s DRPM is -2.33. I find it hard to believe he doesn’t get to value tonight.
Gallinari vs Chandler is always an interesting argument. On the Gallo side you have minutes and about a 20 point floor with what looks like about a 30 point ceiling. On the Chandler side you have higher usage with less minutes and a ceiling of about 35 points and a floor approaching single digits if his shot isn’t falling and his minutes go down. If I was forced to choose I’d probably go with Chandler since he’s cheaper and has the higher upside but for cash games I guess I’d go with Gallo but would rather just pay $400 more for Barnes.
Faried has been very up and down without showing major upside at any kind of consistency so I think I’ll probably pass on him tonight and would rather go down to Favors.
Jamal Murray could be a GPP flier tonight also as he can score while being cheap. He’s alternated good games with bad games over the past 4 so this could be a good 1 if that pattern holds. I just feel safer with Jameer.
On the Suns side there’s less guys to focus on.
Eric Bledsoe is priced way up due to the matchup here and the Nuggets being 2nd worst vs the PG. He had been going consistently 40+ FPTs recent before last game where I believe I read he got into foul trouble which led to limited minutes so I’m hoping people may avoid him seeing that dud of a game. His usage is 27.7 and in this time of game he should thrive. Nelson’s DRPM is -1.19. I feel better about him getting to value than I do Westbrook even if Westbrook has more raw points, if you’re going points per $ give me Bledsoe. (I’m pretty nervous about that call though).
Devin Booker get’s the best SG matchup there is and “(player-popup)Gary Harris”:/players/gary-harris-18617’ DRPM is -1.52. He’s been getting 35+ minutes lately but hasn’t exceeded 30 FPTs in the 3 past games. He always has the ability to blow up because he can shoot as good as anyone and he probably projects as the highest raw points SG with only 2 guys that I could predict with any kind of certainty beating him out tonight (Lou in a tough matchup and LaVine if he get’s going). His usage is 27.6 and the only reason I can see fading him is if his ownership is going to be very high or in a cash game and I just feel safer with cheaper options which is a possibility.
T.J. Warren could be a dart throw at SF tonight but he hasn’t been playing good lately so I think I’ll be avoiding him.
Tyson Chandler is a rebounding monster right now and he’ll be needed to guard Jokic as much as possible so if not paying up for KAT in cash I’m most likely using Chandler here with the way he’s been playing.
P.J. Tucker has been playing really well going for 24+ in 3 straight and is seeing 30+ minutes now and is still relatively cheap. I feel pretty safe that he can get to value in this matchup as long as his minutes stay where they’ve been.
Lakers at Jazz
Game Total 201.5
Jazz favored by 12.5
Jazz paced way up
Lakers projected to score 9.5 points below their season average
Jazz projected to score 7.5 points above their season average
I’ll be avoiding the Lakers in this matchup even on small slate besides maybe Lou Will in a GPP, his usage is 30.6 and without Russell his minutes are little more secure and he balled out for 48.3 FPTs last night in less than 30 minutes. If he get’s the minutes he scores it’s that simple for him but Luke Walton isn’t very reliable and the matchup is tough tonight.
On the Jazz side they got shut down by the Thunder and Nuggets recently and burned me, especially you Gordon Hayward, but tonight is another good spot with the only issue being a blowout.
George Hill has a usage of 24.6 and Clarkson’s DRPM is -2.13. Hill has been very up and down with 2 games in the teens over the last 5 and 2 games right at 30 and 1 for 45.7 so I don’t know if you can trust him in cash but he seen 30+ minutes in all of those games and his 2 down games were slower opponents than the Lakers.
Joe Ingles has been bad lately and seen his minutes dwindle with his play. If he isn’t getting 30 minutes there’s no way to trust him.
Gordon Hayward put up 17.7 FPts last game in a great matchup vs the Nuggets and he played 35 minutes so the minutes weren’t the problem, I have no idea what happened so I’m willing to chalk that up to randomness but then you look at his previous box scores and there’s more below 30 than above so that’s a major concern. He also seen his price jump from last game (I assume from matchup) so I’m most likely avoiding him tonight.
“(player-popup)Derrick Favors”:/players/derrick-favors-1266’ minutes have been in the mid 20s consistently and his FPTs have been 20-25 with 1 game on each side of that range recently. The bad 1 was very bad at 9.8 and the good was 29.5 so his upside isn’t immense but I do feel pretty safe with him in this matchup. His usage is 21.7 and the Lakers have been the worst vs the PF this season.
Rudy Gobert get’s the best C matchup there is tonight and he was on a great stretch before these recent 3 down games. Tonight’s a night to hop back on in GPPs but the price has me much more willing to go up to KAt or down to Chandler in cash. His usage isn’t great at 15.8 but he’s usually good for 12+ points and 10+ rebounds along with a few blocks.