Gettin' Jiggy wit MLB DFS
I started playing DFS a little over a year ago. I’m mostly a middling player but I’ve looked at the first year as a learning experience and hoping to turn it around this year. I’ve switched between GPPs and cash games depending on what I feel like playing that day. After reading AndyBowsers blog, Fading the Chalk my initial plan is to attack it like he has, with 7-10% of my bankroll a night with mostly cash games and then a small GPP, triple up and quintuple thrown in for upside all with the same lineup. I’m not sure this is the way to go but I enjoyed this for NBA so we’ll how it works out for MLB since I know stacking is more prevalent for GPPs than how cash games are approached. I might also do a secondary lineup in a gpp with the stacking approach but we’ll see. For reference my bank roll right now is $100 so that’s what I’ll be going with to start the season. Any questions or thoughts on how I can improve my game leave a comment or get at me on twitter BigWilburStyle
For cash pitcher comes down to 2 guys tonight, Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. I guess you could look at Severino and Wheeler too but I feel a lot safer with the first 2. They each have great SIERAs (Yu 3.24 Max 3.03), both are in pitchers parks (Yu Oakland Max Atlanta), both have nice K rates (Yu 31% Max 32%) and both face a relatively weak offense with a low projected run total by Vegas tonight.
It’s really a toss up for me and Darvish is a little cheaper, doesn’t have Freddie Freeman to worry about, and doesn’t have any rain to deal with, not that I’m overly worried about the rain in ATL but it’s there. I may change my decision but Yu is going to be choice for now.
The Orioles have the highest projected total and offer up Seth Smith leading off for $2,600 vs Bronson Arroyo. He could get pinch hit for late in the game but for the price it’s hard to pass up starting with him in this spot. The rest of their guys aren’t cheap at the top so I think it’s better to revisit them if I have money later.
I just noticed the Cubs line updated and they actually have the highest total now and should have their normal 4 at the top (Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist) vs Jimmy Nelson with the wind blowing out. Addison Russell is also cheap in the 5 hole for $2,700. If I need savings and SS is still open I may come back to Russell but for now I’m just going to use Zobrist again at 2B for $3,000. He had a .357 wOBA, .182 ISO and an 11% K rate vs righties last year and Nelson was very weak to lefties with a xFIP of 5.37 and hard hit rate of 37% to them.
The Blue Jays are next on the team total list and offer a lot of value at the top because they’ve been terrible and hit by injuries early. Kevin Pillar is projected to lead off for $2,400, Steve Parce batting 2nd for $2,600, Bautista 3rd for $3,300 and Kendrys Morales batting cleanup for $2,900. Even though Pillar is cheap I’m not interested in him with a bad looking wOBA and ISO while Pearce and Morales have much better looking splits which offer more upside even though they strikeout a little more. In particular Pearce had a .428 wOBA, .305 ISO and 45% hard hit rate vs lefties last year and even though he’s had a rough start I’m willing to trust the numbers and roll him out for his price tonight. Kendrys had a .392 wOBA, .231 ISO and a 39% hard hit rate vs lefties last year and for $2,900 I feel good about him getting it going tonight too.
I don’t want to wait until the end to fill catcher because more often than not that would probably lead to me paying up which I’m not the biggest fan of doing. That being said, Salvador Perez for $2,900 seems like the best option tonight considering the Royals total and his 5th spot in the projected lineup. He doesn’t have the best #s vs righties (.303 wOBA and .176 ISO) but he hits the ball hard and is facing Matt Cain who is LONG past his prime.
Sticking with the Royals and their matchup vs Matt Cain, Moustakas had a .335 wOBA, and .265 ISO vs righties last year and most importantly a low K% while Cain doesn’t strike many people out and has a SIERA of 4.67.
With $3,500 left per position with SS and 1 OF spot left I think it’s safe to slide Schwarber into the lineup batting leadoff for the Cubs against Nelson.
This leaves me enough money for any healthy SS besides Lindor and Correa. Namewise Corey Seager jumps out at $3,600 but looking at his splits I’m not impressed with him vs left handers even though the Dodgers have a nice total. Going down to Brandon Crawford and his .334 wOBA and .180 ISO is what feels right to me tonight. The Giants total isn’t too bad and he should be batting 4th for them against Hammel who had a 5.09 xFIP vs lefties last year with a 4.28 SIERA overall.
This actually leaves me a decent amount ($900) leftover which I’m going to leave for now until the lineups are out incase I need to upgrade someone, I could also just go up to Max at pitcher without changing anything. If I decide to upgrade I could realistically see going up at any of the positions besides C, SS, Seth Smith, and Schwarber so we’ll see how that shakes out.
There’s a few mid range pitchers that could match or surpass Yu or Max if those 2 aren’t on their game, Luis Severino, Marcus Stroman, and Michael Fulmer. I expect Luis Severino to be popular after he dominated last time out and if his ownership is going to be inflated I’m not interested. Stroman gets what should be a tough offense, the Red Sox even though they haven’t started hot, in a hitters’ park in Toronto so I’m not overly interest there but facing the Red Sox could lower his ownership as they still hold value in name at least. Fulmer meanwhile isn’t even a favorite today against the Rays but that’s more because the Tigers offense hasn’t shown up than Fulmer because the Rays have a low projected total and him being an underdog could lower his ownership so I think I want him for 1 of my lineups even though he’s expensive at $9,100 and I’ll have 2 lineups with either Yu or Max.
I’m starting with Yu here and I want to pair him with a Blue Jays stack, I’m hoping people are scared away from them because of their slow start and I can get them at lower ownership than they should be. I definitely want to include the 2 guys from my cash lineup, Pearce and Morales which kind of forces me to include Bautista who is in the middle of them which leaves me with a decision between Pillar and Tulo. I’d rather go with Tulo batting 5th which should help his ownership be a little lower than Pillar who will get ownership just because he bats leadoff.
This leaves me $3,050 per position with C, 2B, 3B and 1 OF spot left.
For catcher I’m going to 1 off with Jason Castro who has good power and is a decent price of $2,500 facing Tomlin with the wind blowing out to right in Minnesota.
Ian Kinsler and Nick castellanos batting 1-2 for the Tigers offer nice correlation and with the Tigers total pretty low I hope to get them relatively low owned too. They each have good upside in a matchup with Andriese. And that leaves me $3,200 for my final spot and Robbie Grossman should be batting 5th right ahead of Jason Castro and offer me good correlation there for $3,000.
I’m again going to start with Yu and I want to start him with an Orioles stack that starts with Machado and goes through Welington Castillo. This leaves me only $2,675 left per position so I need some cheap one offs.
Steve Pearce fits in easily for $2,600.
Same goes for Brandon Crawford for $2,700.
I’m going to try another HR lineup so starting with Fulmer will give me a little more wiggle room to work with salarywise.
I like “(player-popup)Jason Castro”:/players/jason-castro-13389’s chances at HR tonight and his price is a good starting point for this and the same goes for Steve Pearce who I think is now in all 4 of my lineups.
At SS I like Trevor Story as a guy who should be low owned since he has been slow to start the season. Last year he CRUSHED lefties with an ISO of .310 and a wOBA over .400.
Schimpf of the Padres at 2B gets to face Shelby Miller tonight and his 5.54 xFIP to lefties allowing 39% hard hits to them. Schimpf himself had an ISO of .324 vs righties last year with his own 39% hard hit rate.
I’m going to take a shot that Jose Bautista turns his start around facing a lefty.
Chris Davis should be able to get ahold of 1 vs Arroyo in Cincy tonight at 1B.
Steve Pearce is batting in the bottom of the order but Michael Conforto is leading off for the Mets vs Eflin and has just as much upside as Pearce had for $100 more so that’s an easy adjustment in my cash lineup and Lineup #1 of the GPPs. With the 3rd lineup I needed to drop from Jason Castro to Austin Hedges, who has been hitting well lately, in order to fit Conforto. For the Blue Jays stack lineup using Pearce won’t really work since they moved him down and there would be a 2 player gap between him and my other 3 Blue Jays so switching to Kevin Pillar works fine here and I’m going to make some late adjustments to this lineup and go up to V-Mart to go with the 2 Tigers I already have (not sure why I didn’t do that in the first place) and this leaves me just enough to use Max Kepler instead of Robbie Grossman.
Matt Carpenter is not in the lineup so he easily slides over to Ben Zobrist in my Orioles stack lineup. If I had the $100 I’d move up to Schimpf but since I had to go with Conforto I gotta stick with Zobrist.
For my cash lineup with my money left over I decided to stick with Darvish instead of moving up to Scherzer, but I did decide to move up to Daniel Murphy from Zobrist who I think gives me a little more upside even though the Cubs have a higher total.
I fucked up, choosing Darvish over Scherzer was not the right move. Had I gone up to him and kept Zobrist I would have been able to cash in all of my 50/50s and double up.
Last night wasn’t my night in cash or GPPs and most of the popular offenses (Orioles, Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays) didn’t perform or the guys who did perform were mostly bottom of the lineup guys or guys I just wasn’t on, for instance I had a Blue Jays stack that went 1-4 and their 5 and 6 hole hitters homered. I filled in with a mini Tigers stack that skipped Miggy and he was the one to Homerun there. I had an Orioles stack that started with MAchado and Adam Jones homered just ahead of him. Not that I would have won anything including just those guys but completely missing is no fun.
For cash I really should have gone with Scherzer unless I thought Darvish was better, which I didn’t I thought they were the same, because I knew Scherzer would be way more popular and that should have gotten me to rostering Max.
One thing I did get right was the 2 Rockies I took in my HR lineup, Nolan Arenado (46.9 FPTs 3%) and Trevor Story (18.7 FPTs 6%) in the 100 man tournament but the rest of that lineup failed to do anything and Fulmer was underwhelming. Here’s how the cash lines went last night.
$1 100 Man 50/50 – 109.1
$1 100 Man 50/50 – 104.5
$1 100 Man 50/50 – 109.1
$1 100 Man 50/50 – 108.1
$2 100 Man 50/50 – 109.1
$2 451 Man Double Up – 107.6
$1 Single Entry Bunt – 130.6
$1 100 Man Tournament – 136.4
I do feel like I’ve been spreading myself out in the 100 Man by playing 3 lineups where you need to get up to 9th to even profit a $1 (If only 1 lineup is cashing) so what I think I’m going to try doing moving forward it only playing 1 lineup in there or if I play more lineups stick to 1 pitcher, 1 stack and fill in around them with all 3 teams. Hopefully I can keep this from becoming a losing streak today where there’s a 4 game afternoon slate and I believe an 11 game main slate.