Gettin' Jiggy wit MLB DFS
I started playing DFS a little over a year ago. I’m mostly a middling player but I’ve looked at the first year as a learning experience and hoping to turn it around this year. I’ve switched between GPPs and cash games depending on what I feel like playing that day. After reading AndyBowsers blog, Fading the Chalk my initial plan is to attack it like he has, with 7-10% of my bankroll a night with mostly cash games and then a small GPP, triple up and quintuple thrown in for upside all with the same lineup. I’m not sure this is the way to go but I enjoyed this for NBA so we’ll how it works out for MLB since I know stacking is more prevalent for GPPs than how cash games are approached. I might also do a secondary lineup in a gpp with the stacking approach but we’ll see. For reference my bank roll right now is $100 so that’s what I’ll be going with to start the season. Any questions or thoughts on how I can improve my game leave a comment or get at me on twitter BigWilburStyle
I’m playing both slates today since the afternoon 1 is only 4 games it should be pretty manageable to deal with.
For cash the pitcher is pretty easy. Kyle Hendricks is superior to the rest of the options. His SIERA is 3.71 and his K rate is 23% and he faces the Brewers who strikeout a lot themselves. I get that the Brewers have been hot and you can basically chalk up a HR for Eric Thames but I’m still sticking with Hendricks as my pitcher and hoping he can cool them off. The rain looks like it should at most delay the beginning of the game but shouldn’t be an issue once they start so I’m not worried about that.
The Over/Under isn’t out for the Cubs game yet but I’m going to assume the Cubs will have the highest total. Wilson Contreras is a lock for catcher for me as he should be in the lineup after Montero caught last night and his price is decent at $2,700.
Addison Russell is also a lock for his price ($2,700) vs a lefty and should be in the lineup after getting the night off last night. He had a .343 wOBA and .245 ISO vs lefties last year. Before going with another Cub I want to see what other value is out there.
The Cubs lineup just came out early and Matthew Szczur is leading off for them for $2,000 as they’re giving Schwarber the day off. The Cubs also do have the highest projected total so it’s hard to pass up Szczur there, he could be pinch hit for if it’s close late but for the price I can live with that. Especially since he also allows me to insert Kris Bryant at 3B facing a lefty.
The Athletics have the highest total of the games that have an O/U out and they face off with Martin Perez who generally keeps the ball on the ground but is not a good pitcher overall. They’re projected to offer some good value at the top of their lineup too. However Jed Lowrie and Rajai Davis have not fun looking splits today, both of their wOBAs are under .300 and ISOs under .150.
Khris Davis and Ryon Healy (small sample size) meanwhile crushed lefties last year. Davis had a .367 wOBA, .282 ISO and a 38% hard hit rate. He does strikeout a lot (25%) but Perez doesn’t really strike anyone out (13%) and he gives up hard contact to righties (32%). Davis’ price isn’t cheap at $3,400 but it’s not expensive either so I feel pretty good about him and if people are scared away because he K’s and he hits a dong I’ll be ahead of a lot of people.
Cano is pretty clearly the guy to roll with here for cash.
I can afford any outfielder besides Braun who I wouldn’t use going against my pitcher anyway. Nomar Mazara is an easy choice since the Rangers have a solid total on this slate, he should be batting 3rd, has decent splits and gets to face Hahn who we seen above was not good vs lefties last year.
Just realized I have 4 Cubs hitters along with Hendricks so I need to drop 1 and that’s going to be Szczur going up to Dexter Fowler who should be leading off for the Cardinals which also means I need to come down from Mazara to Carlos Gomez who doesn’t have as good of numbers as Mazara but has some pop and speed and should be batting leadoff for the Rangers.
I’m only doing 1 lineup in the 100 Man league for this afternoon. The Cubs have the highest total and it’s hard for me to ignore how good of a spot Addison Russell and Wilson Contreras are in for good prices in the middle of their order. Kyle Hendricks is also pretty clearly the best pitcher but he’s not really someone who can blow guys away for 10Ks so I’m going to fade him in order to fit 4 Cubs hitters and include Bryant and Rizzo with the 2 guys I already mentioned.
For my pitcher I’m going to roll with Wacha facing the Pirates who are without one of their best hitters, Starling Marte and his price gives me more flexibility than “(player-popup)Felix Hernandez”:/players/felix-hernandez-10954’ would who seems expensive at $9,400.
I have 2B and all 3 OF spots left to fill which suits nicely with my Robinson Cano pick from earlier and I can pair him with Nelson Cruz facing a righty so his ownership may not be crazy and Mitch Haniger to give me the 2-4 Mariners hitters. They’re projected to lead off with Jarod Dyson who could fit in the last spot but I see more upside in using Khris Davis there who could double dong vs the lefty Perez.
Clayton Kershaw, not sure I need to add anymore than that.
As usual Clayton Kershaw is not cheap so I need to save money right away. The Astros have a high total and offer some savings at 1B. Marwin Gonzalez is $2,500 and projected to be batting 7th. That’s pretty far back in the order but the combination of their total and me needing to save money makes me ok with him.
At Catcher the Reds have a nice total and Tucker Barnhart is $2,200, even though he’s projected to be batting 8th I’m fine with him here too.
The Yankees have one of the higher totals again and Starlin Castro is still cheap and should be batting 4th at 2B.
Chase Headley gives me more exposure to the Yankees even though he’s not that cheap I don’t love 3B tonight either.
I’m going back to the well with Brandon Crawford tonight where I don’t like any SS really tonight the Giants have an ok total and he has a decent spot in the order at least.
Lastly I have $2,900 for my final OF spot and Kevin Pillar slides in for $2,400 and projecting to lead off for the Blue Jays.
I have $400 left over in case lineups come out differently and I need to change something or want to upgrade before lock. One upgrade I seen I could make was going to Victor Martinez from Barnhart. V-Mart has a tough matchup vs Archer but he could see an extra at bat and is a better hitter so it’s something to think about.
Some of the lineups have started to come out and Trey Mancini is batting leadoff for the Orioles and I feel like I need to force him in so I needed to come down from Headley to Evan Longoria facing Jordan Zimmermann in order to get up to Mancini from Marwin Gonzalez.
I’m really not in love with my lineup tonight so I’m going to go light on the cash games, especially since I also played the early slate.
I still want to go with Kershaw but it could be hard to fit a good stack with him but I’ll see what I can do.
The first thought I had is to attack the bottom of the order with a high total (Astros and Yankees) and I like the Astros bottom of the lineup more than Yankees but I need to wait for the lineup to see who is actually down there. It’s currently projected Bregman, Marwin, Gurriel, Aoki so 2 3B and I’d go with the bottom 3 if that’s who is actually slotted there.
If I start with them 3 I can also slot in the bottom of the Orioles lineup (Castillo, Schoop, Hardy) plus Trumbo (So skipping Chris Davis) which leaves me just enough for Aaron Altherr who is batting 2nd for the Phillies today vs Gsellman.
The Astros’ lineup did come out with those 3 at the bottom (and Bregman right ahead of them) so I’m sticking with that lineup for tonight in my 100 Man tournament.
Carlos Beltran isn’t in the lineup for the Astros so I decided to go down to Altherr batting 2nd and went back up to Headley at 3B.
Wednesday was one of my better days. I cashed in everything I entered besides my 1 $1 100 man on the Main Slate and was able to cash for 100+% ROI on each slate.
For the day slate Kyle Hendricks didn’t really show up but neither did Felix Hernandez and they were the 2 most popular pitchers in cash. Dexter Fowler was the real difference maker for me since Addison Russell and Khris Davis were pretty highly owned they just helped me keep pace. Fowler’s 40.4 at 11% helped propel me towards the top of my cash games.
For my early slate GPP team I almost took down the 100 Man I was in but ultimately had to settle for 2nd which is fine with me. Michael Wacha didn’t blow the Pirates away but he pitched good enough to give me a leg up on most of the other pitchers and then both of my stacks came through with the Cubs putting up 7 runs (A late 3 run blast by Russell was big) and the Mariners put up 10 runs. My one off Khris Davis play also worked out great (Had I gone with Dexter Fowler I would have came in 1st). Nobody put up less than 12.5 FPTs and 2 went for 38+. Haniger was a difference maker at 15% and 38 FPTs.
Main slate cash team dominated and I actually finished 294th in the Bunt (14,117 entries) and won $5 in that and I finished no worse than 3rd in my cash games. Kershaw performed as expected and that change to Headley was huge as he started the night off with a HR. Josh Reddick busted out for 43.6 FPTs at high ownership so he was a must in order to cash. If you wanted to take down a GPP you needed Bryce Harper who put up almost 60 FPTs, Jay Bruce also did but he actually wasn’t in the winning Bunt lineup which is pretty crazy to me.
Main slate GPP team was the lone stinker of the day. Kershaw did well but the Orioles only put up 2 runs and even though I had most of the exposure to those 2 runs neither were HRs and nobody did more than 12 FPTs from them. The Astros puts up 5 runs but I had very little exposure to those runs and my 1 off Altherr did ok (15.4 FPTs) but nothing crazy and this team didn’t have much of chance finishing 51st in the 100 Man.
In all I profited $27.3 ($41.3 in winnings) yesterday, nothing crazy but a very solid return on $14 of each fees. Hopefully Thursday is another good day with another split slate.